Why I re-joined the UK Labour Party after 40 years away..then left again and joined the Lib Dems? See PS below....

Dr. Michael Hopkins, [email protected]

What prompted my early year's interest in politics?

It was September 1963 when I was a grammar school boy in Bournemouth that I was greatly influenced by the then Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s speech when he warned that to prosper, a 'new Britain' would need to be forged in the 'white hot heat' of scientific revolution. I was inspired and changed from the arts to science but gradually moved back into a more literary world where words are as important as equations and now call myself an ‘Economist’.

Yet the seeds were sown and a decade later I chaired the local Labour Party and was its District Council candidate in 1973 when I was a research officer at the University of Sussex in Brighton. I lost narrowly and was then approached by the local Tory party to move over to them. That party of privilege never enticed me as I moved from a lad with nothing except a family to encourage me to study. Then I received free education, free transport, free meals and a University grant thanks to William Beveridge and his 1942 report ‘Social Insurance and Allied Services’ (known as the Beveridge Report) which served as the basis for the post-World War II welfare state put in place by the Labour government elected in 1945.

 I also worked in various jobs to support myself such as a waiter and bus conductor, as well as arising at 0600am every day of my youth to deliver newspapers . That start led to me eventually winning a Commonwealth Scholarship to Canada and eventually the offer of a job with the superb World Employment Programme of the ILO (International Labour Organisation) and so I headed off to Geneva to join the United Nations. Since that time my base has been Geneva although I have lived and worked right across the world including a time back in the UK.

Why the change now?

I kept in touch with my own country, including one spell as Professor of Corporate and Social Research at Middlesex University in London. So why did I leave it to only a week ago to re-join the Labour Party? The trigger was Brexit and Theresa May’s move toward a hard exit coupled with the appointment of Boris Johnson as Foreign Minister and then allowing last week, that bare-faced liar, to appear on the same stage as the admirable John Kerry. I became really angry, but then I realised that the anger was as much at myself for having spent so much time away from my country that I was always, until now, proud to represent even as a modest citizen of the world. I note that May commented that to be a good Briton you ‘can’t be a citizen of the world’ – maybe that is why Cameron did not allow the one million British citizens who live abroad to vote in the Brexit referendum? Sad, since I had always regarded my country as fair-minded and international in outlook while preserving its unique sense of humour.

But, years of Tory under spending and unnecessary austerity have brought about shortages in hospital beds, little affordable housing, stagnant wages and a declining educational base – the very things for which many Brexiters blamed immigrants. Mrs May’s “near-invisible” support for Remain[1] (Andrew Rawnsley, Comment, The Guardian) prompted hardly a murmur compared with the clamour against Corbyn, but positioned her well to assume a Brexiter-in-chief role. In which, ‘by championing immigration control rather than the single market, she has highlighted the humanity and economic sense in Corbyn’s policy’. 

Corbyn himself rarely mentions the word ‘market’ and I am concerned that his tax and spend policies might destroy what Margaret Thatcher also destroyed which was the manufacturing base of Britain. Now showing at least some green shoots which I fear will be damaged by Brexit along with the main channel for Britain which is, and will be, services – education, research, science, finance, health, tourism, environment and, especially, caring for others. 

What were major Brexit untruths?

Johnson used the infamous bus below to showcase what he thought was a simple truth. The story is, of course, far more complicated. The bus and Johnson elaborated a now famous lie - the EU would continue to cost the UK 350,000 million pounds per week! But he ignored the rebate that the UK receives from the EU of ￡1 for every ￡1.55 it actually pays[2] –depending on which year one looks at. 

Brexit, it was continually shouted and broadcast even by the usually solid BBC, would allow those monies saved to be allocated to the NHS...Johnson and the awful racist Farage and austerity driven Gove have all been quiet on that since. So the UK left the EU because of a net cost of 124mn pounds a week or 6.5bn out of a total annual health budget of 117bn. In other words Johnson convinced the UK electorate to give up free access to a market of 350millon people because of the cost of 5.5% of the National Health Service or the cost of two QE class aircraft carriers? Then, for that he gets named Foreign Minister? Although, possibly, maybe because in a battle you push people out front that you want to get rid of!

Johnson wasn’t then aware of the threat from Russia when, and I am no war mongerer, the UK’s Defence needs to be aware and active – and will need more than merely 2 aircraft carriers. Could Russia move into an England now outside the protection of being in the EU with 28 other countries? Would there be refugees from the UK? Where would they go? Oh dear, refugees even English ones might have a hard time to enter an anti-immigrant and anti-refugee EU. But I am getting ahead of myself.

In a pro-EU article, revealed in a new book by Sunday Times political editor Tim Shipman, All Out War, Johnson supported membership of the EU free trade zone before he flipped presumably to promote his Prime Ministerial ambitions. "This is a market on our doorstep, ready for further exploitation by British firms," Mr Johnson wrote. "The membership fee seems rather small for all that access. Why are we so determined to turn our back on it?" Why, I ask, do we have such a turncoat and liar as Foreign Minister?

Are there advantages to Brexit?

In any decision there are always winners and losers and Brexit is no exception. But will the whole country be winners? Highly unlikely. I can see Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving the previously, United, Kingdom and possibly Wales, the land of my father’s birth, leaving too. Too bad that Nicola Sturgeon is not the PM of the UK. She realised that Brexit would, reluctantly, achieve what two World Wars failed, the break-up of the United Kingdom. I also see in the vote for Brexit shades of the same movement that has thrust the awful Trump into prominence and eventual divisiveness in the struggle to gain power for its own sake,

What are some of the key economic disadvantages of Brexit?

The pound slumped more than 6 percent against the dollar in less than 10 minutes Friday 8 Oct 2016. Justin Tallis/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The economics of leaving the EU are not promising. Casting aside the nonsense that we cannot trust ‘experts’ since I don’t want a politician operating on my knee! The signs were already there that the pound would fall as confidence left the world about stability in the UK. Markets, unfortunately or fortunately, dominate our lives and they need stability to invest. The UK’s wealth is based upon the forces of capital now ensconced in London - 66bn of taxes paid in a year by the way Mr. Johnson of which around 30% goes to the rest of the country. The fall in the pound, the worsening balance of payments because of higher tariffs from our neighbours (previously zero) on both our exports and imports, rising external debt and lower economic growth will add to the pound’s devaluation followed quickly by price inflation. To curb inflation the Bank of England will raise real interest rates pretty soon thereby raising the cost of borrowing, including mortgages, and adding to an upward price spiral. Raising interest rates may, of course, help the pound but the running away from operating across Europe tariff free for major financial organisations in the City of London won’t help. Then more decisions on the pound will be taken, not by London, but by institutions in Frankfurt, Milan and Paris...maybe even Dublin down the road. Then unemployment will rise and wages will suffer even more than the past decade. The UK will become, what we all once feared, a poor island off the coast of France.

Why Britain needs immigrants?

My first shock after June 23 was to see how anti-immigration even racist were many of my country men and (to a lesser extent) women. It seems the leave vote came mainly from lesser educated working class people in the North outside London and older white folk in the South. I was born in the South in Bournemouth and I never saw in person a non-white man or woman until I was 18 years of age. Until June 23rd 2016 I hardly noticed differences in the colour of human beings and I have always lived in mainly multi-racial communities from Geneva to London to Washington DC to Bogota and now Nairobi. Clearly the question of uncontrolled immigration is a big issue among many – for instance I hear occasionally the ludicrous statement that that the UK is full! 

Clearly as the UK and Europe age we need younger skilled people and also the less skilled to do the jobs that you and I don’t want to do – digging potatoes or sweeping roads etc. But yes, the question is complicated but UK can accept many more people than at present. 

People from outside the EU who come to our shores to escape horrible lives exacerbated by us – and because of Tony Blair in particular with his foolhardy support for George Bush Jr. for instance – need help. The UK has signed up to many UN agreements that respect refugees and leaving the EU won’t change any of that. 

I should like to help my country to eliminate racism and xenophobia then to return to become more understanding as, in fact, I was always proud to say was the basis of my country. Happily many British people think the same as I.

Yet, as one of my close friends has written, ‘successive governments have pursued a class-based migration policy, letting in Russian and Middle-Eastern plutocrats with very dubious credentials but who have loads of money, and putting up barriers to those who have no criminal past but no money.’

William Keegan in the Observer writes ‘However, as the prime minister has made crystal clear at the recent Tory party conference, her obsession is with immigration and she is perfectly happy to sacrifice our membership of the single market to appease the anti-immigration lobby. She appears to have bought Davis’s line that Britain can happily negotiate all manner of trade agreements through membership of the World Trade Organisation, blissfully ignoring all the trade experts who point out that this process would take 10 years. After all, they are only experts, and one of the most prominent Brexiters during the campaign, Michael Gove, told us what to think of experts.’ Enough said for now!

 What will happen to jobs?

The question of technology replacing jobs has a long history and there is no doubt that technology destroys obsolete jobs[3]. Nor that importing cheaper goods and services from technologically more backward countries also destroys jobs. Happily the new technological progress leads to higher levels of productivity and new jobs in more technologically advanced industries but requiring not only more education but, also more in-service training. Further, trade is mutually beneficial in that it allows countries with low levels of skills to reach higher levels of employment through exporting to richer countries, while richer countries may export technologically advanced goods to poorer countries. Germany is a good example of the latter and achieves unemployment rates less than 5% through exporting high technology machines.

Yet, there is a downside in that the new jobs may not be as plentiful as before and, more importantly, the old jobs either become obsolete or in less demand because they are essentially low tec. Two further problems are that the discouraged workers live on vastly reduced savings and that obsolete workers have to re-train and re-locate. This is where a socially responsible Government steps in and should provide benefits to discouraged workers living on or under the poverty line and compensate workers to re-train. Germany has done this but the USA, with its Republican Congress and Senate, simply refuses to re-consider its benefit systems. 

Trade does lead to jobs being lost by the low skilled, or even the wrong skilled. Yet the new higher skilled jobs in the new trade are better paid, profits of companies increase and as such should be taxed to allow the displaced workers to benefit and the income distribution to be fairer. If this process is not followed then there are disgruntled former workers. But blaming the result on trade, again as the Republicans have done in the USA while not encouraging continuing unemployment benefits, is nonsensical. A war on trade is likely to lead to an even larger loss in jobs, as well as higher import prices as retaliatory trade barriers are thrown up thereby reducing exports as their price increases.

The worsening income distribution around the world suggests that the benefits of technical progress are accruing to the very rich and not the majority of the working population. But why should this new wealth not be distributed fairly? Curiously our recent UK Governments have become less socially responsible and have moved toward less taxes for the rich and fewer benefits for the poor and/or unemployed. 

Technological progress through increasing use of technology (such as robotics) should be welcomed since new technologies reduce the drudgery of life. Yet, both our public and private sectors should be mindful that those who suffer from being replaced by technological progress should be compensated. That income distribution around the world is worsening suggests that the technological progress and increased trade that are occurring have not led to an increase in the social responsibility of Governments. I would like to work on that with a Labour Government.

Is it dangerous to reject the EU when a new cold war with Russia is on the cards?

A cold war wind is blowing in from Russia – see for instance Michael Nance’s recent book ‘The Plot to Hack America: How Putin’s Cyber spies and Wiki Leaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election’ in which he reveals Trump as an unwitting agent of Russia. Dictators, such as Putin, have always used the threat of external forces to draw attention away from their own internal lack of success – Russia’s GDP is currently declining in real terms as are wages except for the FSB rich oligarchs. The UK needs to work closely with the EU to bolster its own defences, as well as NATO, to ensure it is prepared for the consequences of a changing world order. I don’t see much of this right now and I fear for the future. 

Why is there a need to reverse the Brexit decision?

I voted against Brexit and it is clear from the above that I am very worried that the UK will be left with little England supported by a much poorer London, surrounded by xenophobic anti-immigration types. It is imperative to stop Brexit. Yet the EU itself is not perfect but at least, let us keep the UK as a sovereign nation that can evaluate EU laws – it does NOT have to accept everything coming out of Brussels. Just look at France, a country I generally admire, but it does tend to agree to everything coming out of Brussels and is not always punctilious to what it signs up to. The UK is too honest and that should be transferred into a powerful bloc to re-negotiate what is not in the country’s interest, but not a place that ignores EU laws as France has had a tendency to do. For instance, the UK thankfully avoided taking on the Euro allowing it to devalue as now and avoid the pitfalls of Greece!

So Why did I rejoin the Labour Party?

The Labour Party is not currently how I would like to see it. It has little chance of winning the next General Election even against what I think will be a disastrous Conservative Party struggling with a very weak economy and high unemployment because of Brexit. I generally liked the Labour Party during the Governments led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown over 1997 to 2010 as does its current Deputy Leader Tom Watson and no Blairite he. Corbyn is a sincere man but efforts to take Britain to a previous highly State interventionist time have to be handled very carefully. He, or another, also needs to win back MPs. 

Jobs and income are going to change and a return to a romantic period of dirty and tough jobs in coal and steel industries are just not going to come back and, then, who would want them? What is needed is a continual re-structuring with adequate payments to the unemployed plus new skill training. A basic income vouched for by many will eventually be the way ahead as artificial intelligence replaces most jobs including that of this writer! 

I see no future for the Liberal Democrats after their many U-turns with the Cameron Government nor will the Green Party go far because of its seemingly single issue approach of which I support in any case. The energy policy of May to get into bed with the Chinese and French and create new nuclear power stations with a grant of close to ￡3bn and a guarantee price per Megawatt energy more than double that of alternative energy is dumbfounding. The policy has already led to retrenchment in alternative energy such as wind, tide and solar with the former two led by the UK and a future of clean energy and jobs. Climate change has to be a key issue and the UK could lead that world charge, but not by going even more nuclear.

My aim is to influence the Labour Party to make a better job of the Brexit issue. But 'left' and 'right' are too simplistic to act upon. I did think of running as an Independent but too difficult. I hope to work with the wing of the Labour Party who want to change while respecting the magic of the market. That change will be an inevitable reform to capture the centre ground of the UK that it has lost and to keep the old left and the thinkers who have despaired of the Tory Party. My hope is to write and join the debate on the future of the UK and to do as much as I can to overthrow the ludicrous decision to embrace Brexit. The Tory party has succumbed. The Labour Party can help working people even more to make a prosperous Britain but has much to do. The alternative is horrific.

PS I write this on 27th Jan 2017 after hearing about the three-line whip of Corbyn to exit the EU. The Labour leader had previously said he would not seek to block the triggering of the EU exit clause - but now demands his MPs follow suit. A three line whip is the strongest form of voting instruction and tells MPs they must follow the party line. In an interview, Corbyn confirmed the decision, saying "It’s clearly a three-line whip. It is a vote on the article 50 ... We will put out a statement today to our members that we want them to vote for article 50. [information from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/jeremy-corbyn-three-line-whip-labour-mps-article-50-trigger-brexit-bill-party-leader-a7547341.html]. The Labour Party had written to me on the 18th Jan 2017: 'Thank you for contacting us about Brexit. Brexit is the most important issue that has faced the UK for a generation. Labour respects the decision of the British people to leave the European Union, and we will not block the process of invoking Article 50. But it is right that the public and Parliament are given the opportunity to scrutinise the terms of our departure.' I cannot accept neither the latter statement nor the even harder approach to force Labour MPs to vote for Article 50 and start the Brexit process. I cannot accept that my country will be reduced to a weak, poorer, shell of itself. I'll write more in my next article on the details of what Brexit means and why I object so much and what I urge anti-Brexit souls to do next.

[1]Andrew Rawnsley, The Guardian, Comment, Oct 9 2016

[2]https://theconversation.com/fact-check-how-much-does-the-uk-actually-pay-to-the-eu-58120

[3]https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/michael-hopkins-656b70b1 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AD7gPveN7FU