We Need our very Best Science

This past week in the course of serving as a commentator for MSNBC I virtually “attended” the White House daily briefing. It was jarring how the picture painted was completely at odds with our reality. The President read through piles of data on what was or will be shipped to whom and for what…which was a very long soliloquy. Finally Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci were called to the podium (by their first names only) to contribute to the discussion. Not a word from the Centers for Disease Control. An intervention about the economy (Larry Kudlow).  The dissonance between the speakers made my head explode.

We need science and data on the progress of the epidemic among our people. The rate of cases in NYC (14776 cases[1] and population 8.6 million) is 17.2/10,000. For comparison here in Seattle King County (1170 cases and population 2.233 million) is 5.24/10,000. For context the rate of cases in Italy (69,176 cases and 60.5 million) is 11.43/10,000 and we think they have a big problem. Lets get real.

Making the cure worse than the disease is hardly possible. If we save lives I do not know a single person who would trade a life for any amount of money.

Federal failure has plagued Washington with a  lack of timely testing. Basically we do not know where we are actually with this epidemic. As cases mount and pneumonia patients continue to seek care and hospitalization it is clear that the profound social distancing we are practicing is critical to bend the curve.  But we also want to know when that curve bends…not just for us but for our fellow citizens in NYC and across the country.

The initial  federal failure continues to slow us in our capabilities. Personal protective gear ( PPE which is masks, gloves and gowns) continues to put frontline health workers at risk.  Yesterday the Defense Procurement Act (DPA)  was apparently  finally used to send materials to the states although the message from the podium was that private industry was hard at work on the problem so never mind. As a retired physician and member of our States Volunteer Provider corps it is impossible for me and others like me to join our brothers and sisters in grappling with this burden without PPE. In our age group the death rate from infection is unacceptably high, about 10% and up. So we struggle.

It might be possible in our hopes and dreams that Washington State emerges from this epidemic by Easter; we are bending the curve but as our Governor says "we are miles away from champagne corks"---too soon to celebrate. Easter would be a miracle given what we know. We are not likely to see the pews filled with happy healthy parishioners. It is certainly not likely for NYC which is struggling with taking care of its citizens.  Our people deserve daily updates from our government on exactly where we are, and where we are going with this epidemic. Please, please just the facts…not the braggadocio. We are in crisis and we need the truth. 

[1] All case counts were as of March 27 and have continued to change in the interim,