Sub-Saharan Africa offers fertile ground for solar energy financiers and service providers.
Energy demand is set to grow at twice the world average, providing ample funding opportunities in solar commercial and industrial segments.
Written by Inspired Evolution Partner and Investment Director Steven Faure.
Key takeaways:
As economies in African nations grow and diversify, it is estimated that the continent's energy demand will grow twice as fast as the world average, providing fertile ground for financiers and energy service providers to supply solar energy to the commercial and industrial segments in sub-Saharan Africa.
This envisaged growth potential is particularly true when looking at historic urbanisation and industrialisation trends in other parts of the world, such as South-East Asia, which is well ahead of Africa in its investments in solar energy provision.
Sub-Saharan Africa has historically been one of the fastest-growing regions by GDP globally over the last decade. Of the ten fastest-growing economies in the world in 2020, SSA has five such economies: South Sudan, Benin, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Tanzania.[Source] While many forecasts exist for the fastest growing economies in the world in the future, countries in SSA typically comprise half of the list. As of 2019, over 400 African companies in SSA boasted annual revenues of USD 1bn or more, and 700 more companies reported over USD 500m. An assessment of 360 companies from 32 African countries revealed an impressive average compound annual growth rate of 46% in 2019. [Source]
Looking at the mix of industries in SSA, primary industries such as agriculture, mining, and forestry still dominate the economic output of most countries. The transition to more value-adding secondary industries has yet to happen in most countries in the region. The most significant energy users in most advanced economies are typically large industrial users. Except for some East African countries and South Africa, the tertiary service-orientated industries form a relatively small part of the economic output. As the region industrialises and urbanises, there will be an ever-increasing need for power.
The grid will meet some of this power demand, while the balance presents itself as an opportunity for distributed generation.
Various estimates for the foreseeable demand for energy in sub-Saharan Africa exist. Energy is needed in the region not only to facilitate economic development but also to provide access to modern energy services to a significant swathe of the population who do not have access to electricity yet. Urbanisation trends in Africa will require more energy to power industry, HVAC systems, and public transportation systems. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that African energy demand will grow twice as fast as the world average over the next two decades.[IEA, Africa Energy Outlook 2019, pg. 3]
In the short- to medium-term, it is unlikely that grids will meet the need to electrify businesses due to various factors. Grid expansion is typically very capital intensive, time-intensive, and requires significant government, utilities, and regulator planning. The internal capacity and know-how among such organisations in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in state organs, remains constrained. Achieving a reliable electricity supply for all would require an investment of around $120 billion a year through to 2040.[Source:IEA, Africa Energy Outlook 2019, pg. 16] Around half of that amount would be needed for networks. Such an undertaking can only be achieved if appropriate policy and regulatory measures are put in place to effectively use public funds and improve utilities' financial and operational efficiency.
Low energy access, grid unreliability, and insolvent national utilities will remain a feature of the energy landscape in SSA in the medium term. Of the opportunities this scenario presents, the ability to provide distributed power to creditworthy corporate clients across SSA presents a significant commercial opportunity. At a very high level, large economies like Nigeria and South Africa have over 3.1 million[Source] and 2.55 million[Source] registered companies, respectively.
There are several options available to corporates to finance onsite solar. These include an upfront capital investment and bank financing. Increasingly, corporates are opting for a power purchase agreement (PPA) or lease agreement with an energy service provider, a relationship known as solar-as-a-service (SaaS). Installation, operations and maintenance, insurance, and performance guarantees are typically included in the contract. This allows corporates to focus on their core business and free up their balance sheet while simultaneously achieving the lowest-cost and sustainable energy supply.
The annual global corporate PPA market size doubled from 2017 to 2018. The US is the single largest market for corporate PPAs, followed by India. In Africa, the trend for corporate PPAs is not as prominent, and the region has fallen behind its emerging market peers. In 2018, it was estimated that a total of 74 MW of C&I solar was installed in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa. This number is small and likely does not represent the true installed capacity. The estimated installed capacity in Kenya alone is between 29─50 MW and could reach 550 MW by 2025, driven primarily by cost savings and power reliability benefits to private offtakers.[Source] The South African market is considerably larger in scale. According to renewable industry organisation GreenCape, the installed capacity of solar PV rooftop systems in South Africa has increased from 387 MW?in 2017 to approximately 1.35 GW in 2020/21.[Source]
领英推荐
In sub-Saharan Africa, corporates' demand and uptake of solar solutions is being driven by several factors such as weak grids, inadequate regulatory frameworks for utility-scale IPPs, corporate decarbonisation targets, operational cost savings, and net metering schemes, and security of electricity supply. The latter is driving the uptake of solar, particularly in Nigeria. Nigerian businesses have traditionally managed their demand with diesel generators. Due to the decline in solar costs, solar is a compelling substitute for or hybridisation of diesel generators. Providing solar-as-a-service has historically been challenging in Nigeria. However, several energy service providers – for example, Starsight Energy, Daystar Power, and CrossBoundary Energy – are now offering financed solar solutions through lease and/or PPA-style contracts.
In South Africa, the decline in solar costs, rising Eskom tariffs, enabling legislation, and solar technology validation, will spur growth in the behind-the-meter distributed power sector. Mordor Intelligence?expects the rooftop solar market in South Africa to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 9.5% up to 2026.[Source] Declining battery storage costs will add additional impetus as businesses look for affordable solutions to manage grid outages (load shedding). Growth rates in the rest of Africa could exceed South Africa, given the added pressures of poor grid infrastructure and often chronic energy shortages that will drive additional demand for hybridised off-grid systems.
C&I solar projects can take the form of rooftop arrays on buildings or ground mounts and can range widely in size from a few kilowatts (KW) to megawatt (MW) projects. Common customer types include businesses of different sizes – from large corporations to Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) – government offices, schools, and universities.
Energy Service Providers (ESPs) typically offer 10-20 year contracts in the form of PPAs and Leases, depending on the enabling regulatory environment. ESPs raise equity and debt capital commitments that are pooled and used to fund multiple solar installations. This is a standard approach as individual solar systems are small in currency terms, and it's not practical to raise finance for each system given high fundraising transaction costs. Due to uncertainties around portfolio performance, debt investors typically follow equity investors. The initial portfolio is funded on an all-equity basis until the ESP can demonstrate scale and portfolio performance.
For ESPs to offer the most affordable solutions to customers, ESPs need to secure the most favourable equity and debt terms. ESPs need to be mindful of portfolio construction and quality when raising finance. Considerations include:
·??????setting?concentration limits by customer, country, and sector;
·??????being disciplined in terms of acceptable customer credit quality;
·??????standardising project documentation to keep the portfolio uniform;
·??????ensuring technical excellence by only working with experienced and accredited installers;
·??????favouring hard-currency contracts where local financial markets are less developed; and
·??????securing credit enhancement facilities aimed at improving the credit quality of the portfolio, e.g. concessional first loss cover against customer default.
Following these principles, coupled with a good project origination strategy, will see ESPs scale their businesses, deliver affordable clean energy to C&I customers, and support demand for financed distributed energy solutions across sub-Saharan Africa.