"...the premature arrival of the future"

Future Shock[1] 

Like any human being I tend to live my present with thoughts of the past and visions of the future. Often, in my case, those thoughts are accompanied by a shudder, a wince or an unconscious extending of my arms, palms up and a grimace. Or, the thoughts can be completely opposite bringing on, chuckles, smiles, whistling and a brightening of spirit in the presence of no one else. 

My conscience at work. 

In any event the past is always present.

And this brings me to what I call the 'Toffler Effect'.  

Long ago, I read a book, soon after it was published. 

The content, the message, conveyed in that book would change my life and my 'expected' path forward.

For, you see, I firmly believe that much of the angst, anger, frustration, partisanship, polarization, anxiety (behavior) that we are exhibiting today is built upon the premise of what Toffler envisioned in the late 60s and early 70s, nearly 50 years ago, which is, simply, in my own words, ‘learn to adapt to change because change will happen and there is no alternative.’

As a brief but revealing glimpse into issues he raised back then, I have included below some excerpts from Toffler’s Future Shock and added some updating comments in brackets [..]

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This book is about change and how we adapt to it. It is about those who seem to thrive on change, who crest its waves joyfully, as well as those multitudes of others who resist it or seek flight from it. It is about our capacity to adapt. It is about the future and the shock that its arrival brings. 

Future shock is the dizzying disorientation brought on by the premature arrival of the future. It may well be the most important disease of tomorrow……the future will have arrived too soon…

By changing our relationship to the resources that surround us, by violently expanding the scope of change, and, most crucially, by accelerating its pace, we have broken irretrievably with the past. We have cut ourselves off from the old ways of thinking, of feeling, of adapting. 

Now imagine not merely an individual but an entire society, an entire generation—including its weakest, least intelligent, and most irrational members— suddenly transported into this new world. The result is mass disorientation, future shock on a grand scale.

Between March 1967 and March 1968—in a single year—36,600,000 Americans (not counting children less than one year old) changed their place of residence. [by 2015 that number had increased to 44,700,000[4]. There are only 30 countries, globally, including the USA, that have more population than the number of people that change their place of residence annually within the USA. The equivalent of whole countries on the move] 

Almost as much has happened since I was born as happened before. [written in 1970, think about what has happened since then] 

Within a single lifetime, agriculture, the original basis of civilization, has lost its dominance in nation after nation. Today in a dozen major countries agriculture employs fewer than 15 percent of the economically active population. In the United States, whose farms feed 200,000,000 Americans [1970] plus the equivalent of another 160,000,000 people around the world, this figure is already below 6 percent and it is still shrinking rapidly. [by 2010 that percent has dropped to 1.6%.]

Nothing will be less industrial than the civilization born of the industrial revolution. …automation by itself represents "the greatest change in the whole history of mankind."

In 1850 only four cities on the face of the earth had a population of 1,000,000 or more. By 1900 the number had increased to nineteen. But by 1960, there were 141 [today, 2016, there are 160 cities of over 1,000,000 residents in China alone].

If technology, however, is to be regarded as a great engine, a mighty accelerator, then knowledge must be regarded as its fuel. And we thus come to the crux of the accelerative process in society, for the engine is being fed a richer and richer fuel every day 

Virtually every intellectual discipline from political science to family psychology has been hit by a wave of imaginative hypotheses triggered by the invention and diffusion of the computer—and its full impact has not yet struck. [again, written in 1970, long before PCs, tablets, smart phones and impact these technologies have made on society today] 

Among many there is an uneasy mood—a suspicion that change is out of control…There is, after all, no absolute way to measure change…

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Keep in mind, always, that these words were first published in 1970, long before we find ourselves in the situation we find today, in fact many might say 1970 was a time when America was great. That opinion is arguable. 

Here in the USA, today, story after story dominates about declining employment in manufacturing and the causes for that decline.

Some blame globalization and off-shoring, others point to inhibiting taxes imposed by government, currency manipulation is mentioned, wall street and greed, too liberal and too conservative are mentioned in the same breath, confidence of consumers and investors is brought into the mix of complex reasons why manufacturing has declined.

Could it be that manufacturing, as agriculture has already proven, will require less and less human activity to produce more and more goods?

Toffler’s purpose with this book wasn’t to predict which technologies were in our future but rather how those technologies will affect humanity and our personal and public relationships. 

Most manufacturers no longer seek ‘traditional’ skills, in fact, many traditional tasks and the people performing them have been replaced by robotics but ironically plenty of unfilled jobs with special, non-traditional skills exist right here in the USA. By some accounts over 5 million unfilled employment opportunities with the right skills.

So how do we adjust to this reality? And who is responsible for implementing that action?

The current situation we find ourselves in today has developed, or should we say, evolved, over time and the real culprit is everyone, public and private, and our failure to cope with change, inevitable change, which, again, Alvin Toffler in this book, identified nearly 50 years ago.

While getting some future issues wrong[2], generally he was right on target for where we find ourselves today, which is “mass disorientation, future shock on a grand scale".

Read the book, as I did 50 years ago, and many times over the years since.

Absorb the information provided, remembering always and often, that it was written 50 years ago, before digital, the internet, AI, augmented reality, cloud computing, WiFi, driverless cars, IoT, smart data, social media, robotics, the list goes on, and then ask yourself, what has changed in my life and how have I adapted?

Did I adapt?

What will it take for me to adapt?

Don’t believe this line of thinking? Read this[3] and ask yourself how you will adapt to these changes in technology that will ultimately change your behavior.

Perhaps, like any issue causing stress, the first stage to elimination is acknowledgement that it exists, followed by a plan, accepted by all involved, that has identified the root causes and the logical corrective actions to be taken. 

Adaptation is a process, and change is an integral part of the coping solution. 

It is obvious, after all this time and with all the innovations brought by knowledge, that we are still capable of being infected by “the most important disease of tomorrow…the premature arrival of the future”.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Future-Shock-Alvin-Toffler/dp/0553277375

[2] https://www.fastcompany.com/1695307/future-shock-40-what-tofflers-got-right-and-wrong

[3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/12/16/the-7-unmissable-tech-predictions-that-will-define-2017/#3493589c75e4

[4] https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-47.html