The revised Corona isolation shelters Strategy

The current corona strategy is a failure. China gave us 2 months and we had a carnival, Hence no preparation. There is no good data or plan B or global/EU plan. It looks like an ad hoc war. Later more on the failures.

First, I bring a new strategy.

"Protect the old & weak" AND

"batch Herd immunmize the strong"

The core vision is to separate the old weak from the young strong. that's where the risk is. Old have high death rates, not the young. Quarantine all old and vulnerable people. Isolate the old & weak in holiday resorts. Isolation shelters worked in China and are there in Florida. EU has a holiday resort plenty and planes are waiting.

The second part. Let the strong young get natural immunity. Voluntarily of course. Under medical guidance also. We balance the medical support we give. After 2/3 weeks these people could continue to work.

This approach gives us a clear horizon and the economy will bounce back. We now can make better timelines. This way we limit and have a framework to pay for higher individual risk. We balance both the social economic and medical load this way. We probably face the biggest crisis of our generation. The decisions people and governments take in the next few weeks will probably shape the world for years to come. Please rase your voice now.

This approach generates "Herd immunity" This is a revised version of what the U.K. initially wanted as Corona strategy.

Why is our current strategy SO hopeless?

Let me chuck the medical-social-economic problem we have to show it cannot work. First.

We cannot stop & restart a global economy

It's not a car! Restarting takes years if we manage at all. After 2 months of standstill, most of our economy will be gone. Safety first, but not at any price.

Corona can always flair up again! lockup for weeks or month is too uncertain.

We do not know how long the standstill lasts.

Testing is fine, but you are NEVER sure you found the LAST case.

Uncertainty and "No exit strategy,” said epidemiologist Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh. Politicians often have no preparation, no exit strategy, no good data or plan B. Please remember the gulf war or any war.

It's unrealistic to lockup a population for weeks and months in the West. I took a walk in the forest. Maybe you saw the beach. Did you visit a housing block? Just compare the Corona disciple in the west with non-smoking & drinking discipline.

Historically it's a doubtful strategy. During the Hongkong pandemic, Woodstock '69 festival took place. Hongkong flue claimed 1 million death, no lockdown, or any support.

Not enough! NewYorkTimes wrote that we need stricter quarantines. You cannot take away people's life without a clear perspective for up-to 2 years. We need a perspective.

So. why did no one came up with this NEW " refined Isolation shelters Corona Strategy"

Why is the strategic discussion so poor? Politicians play many games these days. There was too much tension everywhere and somehow we have a lot of panic & fear. We have a political stampede.

Tilting an election with war is as old as Rome. Games to power blocks are flaring up. EU announced to scrap all internal spending budgeting rules this week. South EU is hopelessly lost without tourism from the North. Both sitting home and helicopter money are not linked to a strategy. The end of the (hard) euro can come fast now. U.S. Fed establishes currency swaps with 9 central banks to provide dollars for all. Oil crashes because Russia and Saudi Arabia launched a price war to more expensive North sea oil and US fracking out of business. Arabs were always ready to help us with a well-timed oil crash. Insolvency laws are changing all over. Business risk changes due to the great debt clean-up. Economic predictions models get unreliable because they work only under normal conditions. Switching to manual and the daring situation puts the fear index is on tilt. The events above are not in the disaster graph below. A clear strategy can help us to stop investors from worst-case scenario thinking.

Lessons to learn?

It's a failure of governments to act on so many complex issues. Bill gates warned for the Coronavirus in this TED talk. Bill is great, but the root cause is:

The way we organize ourselves produces false priorities and bad slow decisions.

We wasted two months of time Chine gave us. Our homework was not done. Panic and fear as a result. What the people and the stock market feel is right. Time wasted a bad decision making punished.

A simple example of incompetence. An IST/SOLL calculation for our governments to act on: ICU hospital beds. First. Famous Hopkins calculates the intensive care beds needed. Second. The intensive care beds there ARE now in the EU countries: Conclusion: A quick scan shows a factor 10 Shortage of ICU beds for most EU countries. We are not prepared. What would it have taken to have a fleet of UN hospital ships sailing with the global flue-wave? Empty cruise ships enough. Leaders are parallelized, playing games for profit or power. This is how war does start. Let's see.

We created a global economy and just did not prepare for the most common threats. Parliamentary democracy has produced many bad decisions over the last century, like two world wars. Don't start pointing fingers at one bad leader. Of course, he was very bad. The main cause is that the other democracies allowed derailing.

Almost 4 years ago I took the initiative to build a blockchain-based election system that enables fast inclusive traceable and transparent decision making. It was the first system that did participate in a western election. Then there was no want or need.

Some notes after writing this post.

Most beautiful is that the minister of Defence of Israel presented the vision to separate the old from the young. I like to add that Israel is not Europe. We can refine the concept of separating the weak old from the strong young I believe.

That brings me to another comment of a great friend doctor at a large(st) medical center. A front soldier & officer in the Cov war. Quote: We need the young to replace the old. So, what if the young that help the old are partly infected? We are maybe too late.

The solution to that is to keep those who help isolated too. Sure, there is a moment where we get into the "Black Death Mode". That's when all just want to isolate themselves. Maybe we are already there. But then there is also a moment we get out of the "Black Death Mode" again. All that have natural immunization (after healing from Covid-19) can help. The concept of islands of isolation has different values in different phases of the pandemic.

Thank you deeply for all your red ink & wisdom. I love your words more than my own)) The result is that I got my next post. It's finished soon. Please like or write the I inform you when it's there. Just like or dislike me. I always write back.

Here is my NEXT post: "Covid-19 and economic tipping points" How to go on, repair, and get trust in our governments and institutes back.

Please like me if you feel we need to re-calibrate the way we organize. For more convincing stories please click here: Discrimination solved by the system lens theory. Or: Why we need to let our organizations grow and adapt using blockchain.

? March 2020 Arnoud Berghuis

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