Billionaires' Ballet

Trigger warning: this is a tendentious piece of political commentary and not a business article.

Alvin Bragg, Manhattan district attorney, has endured a deluge of criticism in the wake of the felony conviction by a New York jury of Donald Trump.? The central charge levelled against Mr. Bragg appears to be that his decision to prosecute Mr. Trump was nakedly political.

It was.?

One need look no further than the current federal corruption trial of New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, or the federal corruption charges recently laid against Democratic House of Representatives member Henry Cuellar of Texas.? We entrust our elected representatives with the responsibility to attend to our interests and endow them with the power to do so.? Hence when they forget whom they work for and instead prioritise their own selfish interests it is a matter of high importance that they be held accountable.? Both Sen. Menendez and Rep. Cuellar are presumptively innocent, but if the charges against them have passed muster with grand juries it is equally right that they stand trial.? And so it was with Mr. Trump.

What's more, in Mr. Trump's case, Alvin Bragg's predecessor, Cyrus Vance, overruled his lead prosecutors, both of whom advocated strongly to seek indictments against Mr. Trump, and both of whom resigned as a result of Mr. Vance's refusal to move forward.? Whatever one may feel about how Mr. Bragg campaigned, his campaign was built on a foundation of strong prosecutorial support to pursue Mr. Trump, for crimes now proven in court to have been committed and to have been committed precisely to undermine the free and fair elections our Republic is founded on.? How else could any prosecutor proceed having taken an oath to uphold the constitution, and what on earth was Mr. Vance thinking when he refused to pursue justice?? If we can prosecute a sitting senator for the tawdry (alleged) crimes of financial grift, how can we ignore corruption that goes to the heart of electoral integrity?

There are reasons, or course.? But the only one that seems to me to make sense in Mr. Trump's case in New York is the notion, rejected by the courts, that there was something of a legal bridge-too-far to connect lying about business records (a state offense) to hide illegal campaign contributions (a Federal offense).? There are certainly examples of legal overreach. ?For instance, the case of former Virginia Gov. Robert McDonnell, whose honest services conviction was unanimously overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court. One could also argue that the use of mafia-inspired RICO statutes in Georgia to prosecute Mr. Trump and others for alleged election interference is also legal overreach.? But these are matters for courts and appeal courts.

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My proximate interest is not so much in the trials and tribulations of now-convicted felon Mr. Trump as in the volte-face of several remarkably wealthy individuals that appears to have been spurred by, or at least is coincident with, his conviction in New York.? I am perplexed by the change of heart announced by Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz, Steven Schwarzman, and David Sacks, four high profile billionaires who cannot be accused of reticence in the public square.

All four, according to press reports, have spoken vehemently in the past against Mr. Trump, yet have now turned to embrace him politically.? For example, Mr. Ackman, in the wake of the Jan. 6th, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters, reportedly called on Mr. Trump to "resign and apologise to all Americans." Mr. Peltz reportedly stated that after Jan 6th, he regretted voting for Mr. Trump.? Mr. Schwarzman is said (after the Charlottesville "unite the right" Nuremburg-style torchlight demonstration in 2017) to have criticised Mr. Trump for "hatred, bigotry, and extremism."? And Mr. Sacks, also after Jan. 6th, is said to have stated Mr. Trump's actions then disqualified him from ever running for President again.

So, what has changed?? Some of the ideas attributed in the press to this change of heart include Mr Biden's age, antisemitism, foreign policy and the direction of the economy.? So let's take a look at these.

Age is the easiest. Mr. Biden is 81 and will turn 82 in November.? Clearly, no spring chicken.? Donald Trump, meanwhile, turns 78 on June 14th.? Both men are known for their poor, at times incoherent, public speaking, and many Americans would prefer a younger candidate.? Nonetheless, these are the two we must choose from, and it simply isn't credible for people who claim Mr. Biden is too old to overlook Mr. Trump's comparable age.

Next, what about antisemitism?? This is perhaps the most clearcut issue.? Not only did Mr. Trump assert after Charlottesville that there were "very fine people on both sides," he also praised Hezbollah shortly after the murderous attack by its brother terror gang Hamas on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, lauding Hezbollah as "very smart."? It is almost unnecessary to add that Mr. Trump's prominent acolyte Representative Marjorie Taylor-Greene has regurgitated plainly antisemitic nonsense claiming that "Jewish space lasers" were responsible for wildfires in California.? Without the ad hominem "Jewish" this would have been a ludicrous, yet amusing piece of idiocy by the congresswoman.? With it, she steeps herself in the ugliness that is antisemitism and all without a word of reproach from her master, Mr Trump.

In opposition to this, Mr. Biden has remained steadfast in his support for Israel and its security even in the face of House Republican resistance (organised and galvanised by Mr. Trump) to block passage of substantial military aid to Israel as well as Ukraine, all to foster further disorder at the US southern border and thereby advance Mr. Trump's electoral interests. Quite how Mr. Schwarzman sees Mr. Trump as a better opponent than Mr. Biden for the forces of antisemitism surging in the US right now, I just don't understand.

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So on to foreign policy. Mr. Biden has successfully strengthened NATO, an organisation as important to our collective prosperity as to our collective security, while Mr. Trump has damaged and sometimes mused about destroying NATO and appears most at home internationally in the company of despots and dictators. Mr, Biden has led efforts, including domestically, to take action and commit real resources to mitigate climate change, while Mr. Trump appears hellbent on destroying every US effort to slow the pace of global warming.? Both candidates deserve credit for pursuing peace in the Middle East (perhaps Israel's best chance for long-term security) with only Mr. Trump's admired terror factions standing in the way of a Saudi-Israeli pact.? And while Mr. Trump deserves credit for recognising the threat to our welfare from unfair Chinese trade, it is Mr. Biden who has actually implemented changes likely to make a difference.

Last, how about the economy? There's no doubt we have suffered from a damaging burst of inflation, although it has subsided to a remarkably low current rate without the pain of an early 80s style interest-rate driven recession.? And real wages have outpaced inflation for those in the lower quartiles of income distribution while manufacturing investment, the foundation for sustained employment and wage growth, has boomed since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act.? And anyone who remembers Mr. Trump's "infrastructure week" flaccid failures should be stiffened by Mr. Biden's firm actions.? Manufacturing is the backbone of workers' wages, but infrastructure is the backbone of overall economic prosperity.? I don't think we have done enough, but we have done far more for our infrastructure under Mr. Biden than the weekly nothingburgers served up by Mr. Trump.

So how does one explain the sudden change of heart by these wealthy individuals?? How do we explain their pirouettes from principled opposition to a fascist-leaning authoritarian to cozy chumminess and lavish financial support for the same person, who certainly has not changed in any meaningful way whatsoever??

I doubt they are feeling the pinch even if their income growth since the pandemic hasn't kept pace with inflation.? So, what could the real reason be since on the face of things it doesn't appear to be antisemitism, where Mr. Trump is knee-deep in complicity via fellow travelers like the Charlottesville fascists and the ludicrous likes of Rep. Greene?? It can't be the economy which has improved dramatically under Mr. Biden. It can't be foreign policy since I do not believe any of these plutocrats admire or approve of the likes of Mr. Orban, Mr. Kim, Mr. Erdogan, or Mr. Putin.? And while both candidates are old, arguably in both cases too old, it's hard to point to failings of age in one that aren't there in the other.? And regardless, these two are the only real choice we have.

It's always possible that the billionaire class sees Mr. Trump as a useful idiot they can control to further their selfish interests.? However, one does not need to look back to era of Franz von Papen, the German politician who most directly enabled Hitler’s rise to power, to see the folly of such an idea. We have more recent cautionary tales. The post-Soviet oligarchs in Russia are a striking reminder of the perils of underestimating nascent despots.

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More likely, and this is where I come down, is that these already very rich gentlemen are simply concerned about marginal tax rates, which for them may rise if the tax cuts enacted by the Trump Administration are not renewed.

Call me a cynic, but I fear these already unimaginably wealthy men are ready to sell their principles for a few percent off their marginal tax rate.

Thus, do republics fall.