登录查看更多内容

Will 2020 be a lost year for tourism?

John Kester

Independent researcher, advisor, consultant, teacher, trainer and speaker

发布日期: 2020年5月27日

+ 关注

John Kester

posted on 28 May 2020

This year’s coronavirus outbreak has dramatically reversed tourism’s prospects, at least in the short run. With part of the world cautiously starting to try to find a way out of lockdown, the question rises on whether and when tourism will be possible again and how it will look like. While recovery will take a very long way, this post aims to explore short-term tourism trends and patterns to be expected in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. It will try to make some sense out of the avalanche of pieces of information and opinions that have been poured out, as well as draw from experiences with previous crises concerning health, economy, natural disaster or security. It’s a first inventory as there are still a lot of unknowns about the course of the epidemic and the situation is changing from day to day.

In summary, the following trends and patterns are likely to take place, conditioned by the health basics of physical distancing and avoiding of crowds, and also drawing from past experiences.

Where do we stand?

By the second half of May many countries have seen the number of new infections and deaths starting to decrease. The typical pattern is of an outbreak with a fast exponential growth of the number of infections and deaths followed by a gradual decrease after measures have been taken.

The Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province reported the first COVID-19 cases at the end of December 2019 with the numbers peaking in the second week of February 2020. Other countries of East Asia and the Pacific followed and managed to contain the outbreak in a comparatively early stage. Most Northern, Western and Central European countries experienced fast growth from end of February and peaked at the end of March and beginning of April, and have decreased by almost 80% since. In North America the United States and Canada are lagging a few weeks and numbers are decreasing at a slower pace than in Europe. Other European countries, predominantly in Eastern Europe, have seen numbers started to decline just in the past few weeks. As numbers in most advanced economy countries are decreasing, numbers in most emerging economy countries in Latin American and the Caribbean, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa only started to grow quite recently and have not yet passed the peak.

The resulting crisis is twofold. In addition to the health emergency, economic activity and employment have rapidly deteriorated due to the measures taken to stop the spread of the virus. Governments have been quick to provide support to soften the shock through wage subsidies, tax measures, guarantees, loans and grants. Nevertheless, the majority of countries are expected to enter into a recession. IMF estimates that world output will decrease by 3% in 2020, i.e. -6% in advanced economies and -1% in emerging ones. Unemployment in advanced economies is projected to rise to 8.3% from 4.8% in 2019.[1]

Tourism so far is one of the sectors hardest hit as business is temporarily closed or very marginal. For the tourism sector there is an urgent need to get started again, as many jobs, both formal and informal, the survival of companies, and the livelihood of communities are at stake. For OECD countries, tourism directly contributes 4.4% of GDP on average, while it represents 6.9% of direct employment, with 10% or more for some countries with a large tourism sector.[2] Furthermore, tourism has a substantial indirect impact on other sectors of the economy in the supply chain. Even though the current challenge is incomparable in many ways, tourism in previous crises has shown to be surprisingly resilient. In fact, after the 2008/2009 financial economic crisis tourism has been one of the motors of recovery, with international tourism worldwide growing at a sustained rate of around 4% or more for 10 years in a row during the last decade from 2010 to 2019.[3]

Desire to travel is still alive

Even as the level of infections varies considerably from place to place and numbers have to decrease still further, countries have started to lift the restrictions imposed, with their residents gradually regaining freedom of movement and businesses opening up again.[4] Assuming that the situation is to improve further in the coming weeks and months, the burning questions are what travel will be possible and when, where and how.

There is still appetite for travel in spite of health and economic concerns. Following the easing of lockdowns people everywhere have shown to be very happy to go out, with holidays also on their mind. For instance, a survey of mid-April by the Netherlands Board of Tourism and Conventions (NBTC) and NIPO Research showed that the wish to travel remains high, with the majority of holidaymakers maintaining their plans for the May-September period, or postponing rather than cancelling.[5] The Dutch have planned a total of 7.2 million holidays (61% compared to last year), of which about 5 million abroad.

For potential travellers, though, the situation is primarily unclear and volatile, i.e. changing from day to day and often rather confusing. Overall, there is a strong need to regain confidence. Much depends on the extent with which the conditions of safe travel can be met. A clarification of the state of the economy will also help.

Given the current uncertainty, the following trends and patterns with regard to travel planning are likely to be observed:

Some customers already booked transport, accommodation or a package before the outbreak. With tourism on hold, trips for the past months largely have been cancelled or postponed. Customers with reservations in the forthcoming months are looking for clarity if their planned trip can materialise. Some still might want to cancel or postpone, where it’s better to wait for the operator to cancel than to do oneself.
A part of potential travellers will stay at home and embrace the ‘staycation’ for worries about health or economy, for instance if they are in a vulnerable group or because of economic constraints.
There also will be some pent-up demand from travellers who planned to travel in the lockdown months, particularly for visiting family and friends, but also some business or holiday travel.
Many customers are currently in the wait and see mode, eager to hear what will be possible. If conditions are met, they might organise a last-minute trip.
Due to uncertainty and late planning, travel this year will be in the first place to close-by destinations, i.e. to domestic destinations or neighbouring countries, and more likely by private transport over land than by air.
For the moment domestic travel within one’s own country or region of the country seems to be possible again. It’s still doubtful to what extent this will be true for travel abroad.

Travel restrictions have to be eased first

International tourism has to be awakened from the virtual standstill due to the unparalleled travel restrictions imposed by governments worldwide to fight the spread of the coronavirus. According to desk research by UNWTO as of 8 May, 100% of countries imposed restrictions on travel, in many cases by the closing of their borders for all non-essential travel.[6] IATA provides an interactive map with regulations by country and updated on an ongoing basis.[7]

Owing to the restrictions on entry, demand for international air travel has evaporated and most airlines have been forced to ground almost their full fleets. Flightradar24 shows commercial flights, both passenger and cargo, down 72% so far in May compared to the same period of 2019.[8]

For international travel to revive, borders need to reopen and passenger air transport has to resume. Both issues call for urgent, preferably multilateral, harmonised solutions, through international cooperation, coordination and consensus, by among others the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the European Commission (EC). On 13 May, the European Commission presented guidelines and recommendations to help Member States with the gradual coordinated lifting of travel restrictions with all the necessary safety and precautionary means in place, restoring freedom of movement and reopening internal borders.[9]

There is a lively debate on the lifting of travel restrictions, but little has materialised yet. Some countries still have to reinstate travel between the various regions within their own territory. For foreign visitors many countries impose a 14-day quarantine upon arrival (or for residents upon return) that does not help tourism.

Most urgent is the reopening of borders with neighbouring countries. Some countries are creating travel bubbles or corridors[10], such as the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that have opened their borders to one another from mid-May. Australia and New Zealand are also proposing a bubble but no date has yet been set. Bubbles could also be in the form of a corridor between countries in a comparable stage regarding the coronavirus, in particular attractive for comparatively peripheral destinations largely dependent on air transport, such as Greece and Portugal.

Europe currently is a patchwork. Of its major inbound tourism destinations, Italy prepares to open borders again for tourists beginning of June. Spain just changed its mind and announced to open up from July under still unknown conditions, after first having considered not to open at all for foreign visitors this year. France has maintained that it will be open for domestic tourism, but so far not for international visitors.

Asian countries on the whole remain restrictive, in spite of their comparative success in the fight against the coronavirus. In North America, the temporary closure to non-essential travel on the border between United States with Canada and Mexico has been extended to 22 June. There is talk about and pressure on the reopening of the United States-Canada land and air borders, but there is not yet a concrete prospect of when this could happen.

This year’s holiday season

The forthcoming northern hemisphere summer and southern hemisphere winter are expected to show a gradual pick-up from the currently very depressed levels:

Less crowded destinations, the countryside and secondary destinations in the home country or neighbouring countries will benefit, as do outdoor activities.
Travel over land by private or rented vehicle will be favoured over air travel.
With an increase in the demand for domestic tourism, paradoxically, countries with strong outbound markets and more modest inbound markets, could face overdemand and capacity might fall short. In particular in North-Western Europe this could become a problem. For instance, Germany reported 87 million nights in accommodation by foreign guests in 2018, while Germans spent 698 million nights in rented accommodation abroad.[11]
Destinations that have been lesser affected by the pandemic or that have shown to have addressed it more transparently and effectively are in an advantage, as well as those destinations that are eager to welcome visitors and that move proactively to prepare.
For those who are quickest to move there is the opportunity to take advantage to visit usually overcrowded destinations such as Venice, Dubrovnik, Prague or Amsterdam.
Tourism is first to recover in Asia as the peak in infections was earlier. There are early signs of a cautious recovery of domestic tourism, rather than international tourism.[12] [13] [14]
Prospects for travel between world regions remain bleak in the short-term. Interregional travel will depend on the re-installation of mid- and long-haul routes, and whether countries want to open to receive travelers. People keep daydreaming, however. In a recent analysis conducted by ForwardKeys on Skyscanner flight search data for long-haul flights, holiday plans are still on the agenda, albeit deferred to a later period due to the current socio-political restrictions, i.e. to the second half of 2020.[15]
An extension of the season is most likely this year given the delayed start and pent-up demand.

Preparing for the 'new abnormal'

To get tourism going again, first thing is to ensure that visitors are safe and feel safe. All stakeholders in the tourism value chain have to prepare and work together to make ‘safe travel’ a reality by reviewing and adjusting practices.

Overall, for destination countries priority is prevention. Base is to have the capacity in order to keep the virus under control through testing, tracking of possible infected and tracing of contacts, isolating of positive cases and quarantining of suspected cases. Also, the national health system should be prepared and capable to cope with the treatment of those that would fall ill and need care. Measures focussing on abstaining from contacts when showing any symptom, reinforcing personal hygiene and cleanliness of public places, physical distancing and avoiding of crowds, should be in place to contain the virus from spreading.

For the tourism sector there is lot of work ahead. National and local destination marketing or management organisations, tour operators and travel agencies, transport companies, airports, rental car companies, accommodation and catering services, attractions, shops, etc., share the challenge to review and adjust operations and processes, eliminating any possible spread of infections. This involves modifications to reinforce physical distancing and crowd control through the spread of visitors in space and time, and dealing with bottlenecks in among others public transport, including air travel, airports, stations, bars and restaurants, elevators, pools, sports facilities. Especially critical are multitudes, closed spaces with poor ventilation and activity such as speaking loudly, singing or cheering.

In most cases this will involve the preparation of comprehensive protocols outlining guidelines and measures. The industry already started to work on this, some initiatives:

The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) unveiled “Safe Travels” – new global protocols to restart the Travel & Tourism sector[16]
IATA provides COVID-19: Resources for Airlines & Air Transport Professionals on its website.[17] IATA claims that evidence, although limited, suggests that the risk of transmission on board aircraft is low.[18]
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) issued the COVID-19 Aviation Health Safety Protocol defining measures to assure the health safety of air travellers and aviation personnel once airlines resume regular flight schedules.[19]
TUI presented a ten-point plan for hotel operations in times of Coronavirus.[20]

Protocols typical touch upon the following:

Monitoring of health of staff and guests, including the preparation of an emergency plan with the possibility to quarantining suspected cases and isolation if any infection unfortunately would occur.
Stepping up of cleaning of public spaces, with special attention for door handles, water taps, phones, etc.
Ventilation of closed spaces should be reviewed and improved if necessary.
Spread in space of visitors: physical separation of persons by the indication of walking routes, markings on the floor, placing of screens, control of visitor numbers, redesign of spaces, opening up of extra space, etc.
Spread in time of visitors: e.g. manage demand over the week and over the day through reservation systems, time slots, shifts, happy hours, extending opening hours, preferential hours for certain specific groups, such as senior visitors.
As activities in the open air are rather safe and capacity of establishments is less due to physical distancing, it’s recommendable to facilitate more of the public space for recreation. In traffic walking and cycling should get preference. Empty spaces, such as a parking lots, could for instance be turned into a temporary terrace or city beach, both catering for visitors and for residents staying at home.
To offset uncertainty and build confidence communication is key, offering proactive, comprehensive, transparent and reliable information at every step of the costumer journey.
Given the current uncertainty costumers face, there is a need to offer flexibility in arrangements, preferably with free changes or cancellation.
Training of staff is a vital part of the preparation, as staff members have to internalise and execute changes and are in frontline contact with guests.

Yes, tourism will have its limitations for the time being, as our life at home. Above all, the idea is to focus on what is possible, or how to make it possible, and to come up with practical solutions. For this effort the cooperation and collaboration of the different private sector operators, tourism administration and other public stakeholders, such as health authorities and law enforcement, is a must. But there is much at stake and the tourism sector always has shown to be very creative and resilient in the sense of having a special capacity to deal with change.

[1] www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

[2] OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2020, www.oecd.org/cfe/oecd-tourism-trends-and-policies-20767773.htm

[3] UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 18, January 2020, at www.unwto.org/market-intelligence

[4] See for stories on reopening Skift’s Travel’s Reopening: A Global Timeline https://reopening.travel/reopening

[5] www.nbtcniporesearch.nl/nl/home/nieuws/bijna-5-miljoen-nederlanders-slaan-lange-zomervakantie-over.htm

[6] www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-world-tourism-remains-at-a-standstill-as-100-of-countries-impose-restrictions-on-travel

[7] www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

[8] www.flightradar24.com/blog/100000-daily-flights-tracked-for-the-first-time-since-22-march

[9] https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response/travel-and-transportation-during-coronavirus-pandemic_en

[11] EUROSTAT [tour_occ_ninat] and [tour_dem_tnac] at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/tourism/data/database

[12] www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/evolving-trends-asia-pacific-tourism-wake-covid19-xu-jing

[13] Learning from the curve: Chinese aviation may offer early signs of a COVID-19 recovery, www.flightradar24.com/blog/learning-from-the-curve-chinese-aviation-may-offer-early-signs-of-a-covid-19-recovery