Coming Soon: Cars That Live in the 'Cloud'
Don Peppers
Customer experience expert, keynote speaker, business author, Founder of Peppers & Rogers Group
Robotic vehicles are just around the corner, technologically. Google has been testing driverless cars for some time now, already logging nearly 400,000 driverless miles on various streets and highways, with only one driverless accident so far. The head of Google’s program, Anthony Levandowski, suggested not long ago that we may see driverless cars on the market as soon as the year 2018.
I'm expecting to hear a lot more about Google's efforts at this week's Aspen Ideas Festival, where transportation is a major theme. In addition to U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood, headlining a discussion called "Transportation for the 21st Century," we'll hear visions for the future from executives at Tesla, Toyota, and others. And, since this is a "big ideas" festival, flying cars are also on the agenda. Robert Dingemanse, CEO of the Dutch company PAL-V Europe NV, will talk about his company's half-plane, half-car hybrid.
It's important to keep in mind that robotics will change everything about the driving experience, because once a car no longer has to be driven by a person, it will no longer have to be owned by one, either. In the not-too-distant future you'll just use your smartphone to summon a car to come pick you up and drive you somewhere. Want to cut costs? There’s an app for that. Simply “share a ride” with someone else who’s headed in the same direction. Need groceries in a hurry? Buy them online and they’ll come to you in a tiny little “car” so small it can’t accommodate a human, but can still navigate safely down the road to your front door.
Perhaps the best way to think about how robotic vehicles will transform our lives is that cars themselves will be available “in the cloud.” In the same way you can now access your email, favorite music, or business contacts on any device, you’ll soon be able to access personal transportation on any device.
And the implications of non-owned cars - cars that are available "on demand," as an app-like service - are truly profound:
- Highly specialized vehicles – for deliveries, medical emergencies, single- vs. multi-passenger, long-distance, etc.
- Fewer cars on the road in general, as consumers take advantage of the economics of collaborative trips and ride sharing.
- Reduced demand for one-size-fits-all mass transit systems (like rail and bus), which will eventually only be found in very densely populated areas, or along very heavily traveled inter-city routes.
- Driverless-only toll roads with no actual speed limits and average fast-lane speeds of 120 mph+.
Which brings me back to flying cars. To operate the PAL-V flying car yourself you'll need a driver's license and a private pilot's license. But there are 500 times as many driver's licenses as their are pilot's licenses, so the total market for flying autos will be just 0.2% the size of the overall auto market. Unless, of course, flying cars are robotically operated. To be genuinely successful, they will have to be.
In other words, robotic technology will soon put cars “in the cloud” not just metaphorically, but physically as well!
Read more coverage of the Aspen Ideas Festival from Influencers:
- Arianna Huffington: Should the U.S. Require a Year of Service?
- Mark Mobius: What the Stock Market Is Telling Us About the Economy
- Heather Hiles: Will a Common Curriculum Change Our Schools?
- Charles Best: How Crowdfunding Could Save the Arts
- Chester Elton: The Stealth Ways to Network at Conferences
Photo: Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images
Manager International Compliance
11 年We need cars/ planes as long as teleport is not commercially launched. Once it is launched, these mode of transports would be vanished.
Driving PARTNER GROWTH with award winning Scanners, Software and Services from Kodak Alaris - Territory Account Manager
11 年It seems to me that the vast majority of cars on the roads are there for getting people to and from jobs. I might posit that the first step in automating any transit system begin with mass transit vehicles. I know in many of the major cities in which I've lived, the overwhelming majority of vehicles I see on the road have but a single person in them. I like the ride-sharing mentioned in the article and might suggest that employers who still need to have a physically centralized workforce be integral partners in scheduling shifts to utilize mass transit, possibly being given incentive to do so.
Breakthrough Technologies for Environment, Energy and Cities
11 年It seems very few people are aware of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) systems. We are used to of thinking in terms of cars (and trains and other existing modes of transport) and keep try to improve the same old concepts often taking them to extreme levels of complexity. Can an overly complex system (like an automated car) work? Of course it can, eventually. But the simplicity of PRT is disarming compared to automated cars. It is not only far cheaper, it is also much more efficient and effective. Take a look at www.skyTran.us. skyTran is world's most advanced surface transport technology, and it is available today. It adds to the transportation capacity and brings completely new capabilities. For example, it quadruples the average speed of travel. The average speed of travel in cities would be 120 km/hour and the speed between the cities would be 240 km/hour. SkyTran is like physical internet. It packetises the passengers by seating them in small vehicles and routes them automatically over the network just as internet routes data packets. It is far simpler than automated cars. Instead of squeezing zillions of algorithms, sensors, actuators, processsing into the cars, why not let them run just a few feet above in the air? That obviates all possibilities of collision with everything on the ground. The automated cars will still have to wait endlessly stuck in traffic jams. Instead of making hugely complex flying cars (that anyway must run robotically on predefined paths), why not let the vehicles run along thin elevated guideways? There is no need for batteries as the cars have direct access to grid power. SkyTran PRT is far simpler and more effective in several other ways too.
This is what Google are trying to develop
Anti-Aging, Beauty, Health & Wellness Consultant, Changing Lives Around the World
11 年What about some technology that can change how we look, feel and act? How about better quality life and brighter future? It is not coming it's already here! https://tinyurl.com/k65svly