StoneX Wealth Management International Private Client转发了
Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Opportunity: Positioning for What’s Next Markets are grappling with uncertainty, but opportunity is emerging. Fiscal policy-driven volatility, elevated hedging costs, and stagflation risks are driving short-term turbulence, yet investors should remain focused on structural shifts rather than short-term noise. A few key themes we’re watching: ?? Policy-driven uncertainty is weighing on growth – One-third of 2024 U.S. GDP came from government spending (federal, state and local), a record outside of war or crisis. If fiscal contraction materializes, expect short-term volatility but long-term fiscal sustainability. ?? Hedging demand is extreme – Record put volumes reflect investor caution, but with hedges now expensive, the asymmetric opportunity lies in selective risk-taking. ?? Healthcare remains our top equity pick – The best-performing sector YTD, healthcare offers both upside potential and defensive characteristics, making it attractive in both risk-on and risk-off environments. ?? Geographic diversification matters – European equities continue to outperform U.S. markets, and global positioning remains essential. ?? The Fed’s challenge: Cutting into stagflation risk? – The central bank faces a difficult trade-off. With inflation still above trend and growth slowing, aggressive rate cuts seem unlikely. Timing markets is impossible, but long-term gains come from disciplined positioning amid uncertainty. Staying diversified across defensive equities, high-quality credit, and global allocations remains the strategy as we navigate short-term risks in pursuit of long-term gains. StoneX Group Inc. Fox Business Network Charles Payne