ODI Global Risks and Resilience

Our new projections for the conflict blind spot in climate action by 2030 paint a grim picture. But there are still reasons for hope. ?? Read the new analysis by Yue Cao below, and follow other members of our team - Mauricio Vazquez, Amir Khouzam, Manisha Kabra Gulati, Leigh Mayhew, Camille Laville and Howard Standen - for updates on one of the most pressing questions in climate finance and action: what does effective support look like in some the world's most climate-vulnerable - yet hard to access - places? ODI Global

This week's EU donor conference on Syria?was unique in a few ways: it was attended for the first time by the authorities in Damascus; it was explicitly focused on reconstruction, and to turn the page on the last 14 years of civil war; and it saw nearly €6 billion?committed by donors and financiers to aid reconstruction. ? Whether Syria has turned the corner yet or not is not entirely clear, and is a question not for donors but for the Syrian people themselves to answer. Yet for reconstruction efforts to effectively enable the aspirations, wellbeing and resilience of Syrians, they must tackle the complex, deep-rooted issues that fuelled division and conflict in the first place – and the future ones that could derail development. ? Read this new analysis by ODI Global Risks and Resilience: https://lnkd.in/dNkTBDm5?Amir Khouzam Guy Jobbins Mauricio Vazquez Yue Cao Chloé Farand Anna Bjerde Raj Kumar Oscar A. Garcia Franck Bousquet Federico Galizia Awssan Kamal

?? The Climate Finance Gap: A Blind Spot for Conflict-Affected Countries ?? As climate change accelerates, the world faces an urgent question: Are we leaving fragile and conflict-affected countries behind? A welcome new article on the Improved and Equitable Access Network from?Climate Home News: the first climate network to be led and owned by conflict-affected countries, which aims to be "a diplomatic force advocating for more and better climate financing tailored to conflict and humanitarian settings":?https://lnkd.in/eKEZvm7Q?We stand ready to help the Network go from strength to strength in the run-up to COP30. ? At a time of massive cuts to climate finance and ODA, we must ensure the world's most climate-vulnerable people secure the funding which is rightfully theirs. Climate Home’s piece comes just after?Yue Cao?published a critical new piece of analysis for?ODI Global. 'Small Change' shows four new projections for climate finance flows to fragile and conflict-affected countries by 2030. Yue's predictions are not easy reading. Even under the most ambitious scenario, the needs of fragile and conflict-affected countries would still be 110% higher than the finance provided in 2030. But there are reasons to hope:?https://lnkd.in/eTbickry?? The recent analysis from ODI highlights a critical issue: by 2030, these nations will need at least $41.5 billion annually in climate finance. Yet, despite global commitments, less than 10% of current climate funding reaches the regions that need it most. This funding gap isn’t just a missed opportunity—it's a potential disaster. Without targeted climate finance, the vulnerability of these countries will deepen, perpetuating cycles of crises. Liban Obsiye Bihi Egeh Soumaila Oumar Gadji Abdihakim Ainte Abdullahi Khalif Andrew Harper Stephanie Speck Mikko Ollikainen Dr Sinead Walsh Will Reynolds Melinda Bohannon Valentina Montesel Lindsey Jones Anna Bjerde Marie-Laure Ndongo-Seh Akin-Olugbade Greg Puley Jonathan Stone Mary Friel Marcus Lenzen Samuel Martell Oscar A. Garcia Frederik Teufel Hans Peter Lankes Chris Frassetto Catherine-Lune Grayson Jonathan Papoulidis Habib Ur Rehman Mayar Nick Dyer Ole Thonke Rein Paulsen Ronald Jackson Animesh Kumar Laurie Goering Rachel Kyte Andrew Lucas

As Ukraine and the United States engage in high-stakes peace talks in Saudi Arabia, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile. With Ukraine signalling a willingness to pursue a short-term ceasefire, the stakes couldn't be higher. ? These negotiations have far-reaching implications—not just for the course of the Russia-Ukraine war, but also for global dynamics, including U.S.-Europe relations and Russia’s broader strategic positioning. ? Our geopolitical advisory team breaks down the key implications and what to keep an eye on as these talks unfold. ? Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the situation develops. ? #Ukraine #US #Geopolitics #PeaceTalks #RussiaUkraineWar #GlobalAffairs #SaudiArabia #EconomicVolatility ODI Global Dr Rebecca Nadin Olena Borodyna Elena Kiryakova

As our oceans warm, a particularly smelly type of seaweed called Sargassum is wreaking havoc on Caribbean islands and nations around the world. ?? But could this growing seaweed problem in fact help us tackle the climate crisis, whilst boosting the economies of Small Island Developing States (SIDS)? ?? Beyond just its potent smell, Sargassum is seriously impacting the health and livelihoods of local populations. It now exists at such huge volumes it is practically impossible to remove. But there is hope – and opportunity. From seaweed-fuelled cars to new biostimulants, industrial and agricultural materials and much more, SIDS are driving innovative new technologies and Sargassum-sourced energies. And as Rum and Sargassum Founder Legena Henry highlights on a new episode of the Small Islands Big Picture podcast, these are not just Small Island problems – but increasingly global, and scalable, solutions for sustainability. Alongside Legena, hosts Emily Wilkinson and Matthew Bishop (Dr) from the Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative?are joined by guest experts Olivia Losbar (journalist, Groupe RCI - Antilles) and Emma Tompkins (Professor of Environment, Geography and Development, University of Southampton). Listen to the full, fascinating discussion. Available on all podcast platforms, and via our website: https://buff.ly/cZSgv8W ??? ODI Global Risks and Resilience #SmallIslandsBigPicture #Sargassum #SIDS #ClimateResilience

Making the right decision has never been more complicated. ? ?? What happens when one country’s climate policies have knock-on effects across borders? ???How can we untangle the complex, interconnected challenges of climate change, conflict, and poverty? ???How can we manage the risks generated by changes, such as the low-carbon energy transition or the rise of China? ? ODI Global Risks and Resilience is a pioneering programme within ODI Global that helps decision makers navigate complex, interconnected and cross-border threats to development. Our title reflects our mission: helping people understand risks and build resilience in a fast-changing world. ? This means we offer nuanced, original commentary on some of the most complicated topics in development, from disaster risk management and climate adaptation to new geopolitical transitions. Our specialists work across various geographical areas and focus on key topics, with some of our work summarised below. ? ?? Explore our research on our newly redesigned webpage, featuring stunning new artwork by Joe Magee: https://lnkd.in/eAyFcvCU Dr Rebecca Nadin Mauricio Vazquez Lorraine Howe Silvia Harvey Yue Cao Amir Khouzam Manish Kumar Emily Wilkinson Courtney O. Lindsay (PhD, PMP) Mairi Dupar Camille Laville Vikrant Panwar Emma Gogerty (née Lovell) Leigh Mayhew Elena Kiryakova Olena Borodyna Charlotte King Issy Mangan Emma Felisi Simon Levine Howard Standen Sarah O.

Some really interesting commentary in The i Paper from ODI Global Risks and Resilience's Olena Borodyna on how shifting US policy is reshaping Europe’s response to the Russia-Ukraine war. We've got a lot more to come on this topic in the next few months, so keep an eye out!

In a changing global order, what does #China’s 2025 budget reveal about its?national security?priorities?? As Trump outlined his ‘America First’ vision to Congress, renaming a national park and doubling down on tariffs, China’s annual “Two Sessions”, of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) kicked off today. Premier Li Qiang delivered the‘2025 Government Work Report’ (GWR), outlining China's policy priorities going forward on everything from the economy, military, trade and diplomacy.? ? Unsurprisingly, financial risks and the economy featured prominently on the agenda, with a focus on managing local government debt?and increasing domestic consumer spending. But it seems, despite a moderate deficit to GDP ratio of just over 3% (according to Chinese official data), and some economic slowdown,?Beijing is ramping up spending?on national security priorities.? ? As Elon Musk's DOGE slashes federal budgets and agencies deemed not to be priorities, Premier Li presented key figures reflecting China’s strategic spending priorities for 2025.?In an increasingly volatile geopolitical environment,?Beijing?has reaffirmed its commitment to enhancing its?international discourse power,?increasing spending on ‘diplomatic endeavours’?from?$8.2 Billion USD?in 2024 to $9 billion.? ? Food security also remains?a key priority, building on Xi Jinping’s?2023 pledge to keep ‘China’s food supply remains firmly in its own hands’,?with 6.1% increase in spending on grain and edible oil stockpiling, totaling?$18.1 billion USD, ? China’s continued focus on advancing its?‘future industries’?—including quantum computing, AI, and biotech—was reflected in a?10% increase?in?funding for science and technology innovation, reaching?over?$54 billion USD in 2025.?Meanwhile, as Europe scrambles to increase defence spending, Premier Li announced a 7.2% increase in?China’s military spending for 2025?(to approx. US$245 billion), equating to around 1.5% of GDP, according to Chinese government projections. ? However, experts from IISS, THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES suggest that the official figure may not encompass the full scope of defence-related investments, and actual spending could be?40% to 90% higher.? ? To help you make sense of all of this, stay tuned for our upcoming brief on the ‘Top 5 Geopolitical Risks as viewed from Beijing’, which will provide further insights into these developments. ODI Global Risks and Resilience ODI Global Sara Pantuliano Prof. Dominic McVey MBE Hans Peter Lankes Susan E. Walton Meia Nouwens 温玫雅 Elena Kiryakova Ali Serim #TwoSessions #NationalPeople’sCongress #ChinesePeople’sPoliticalConsultativeConference #Trump #USChinaTariffs #Defence #Geopolitics Image credit: Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing on Wednesday. Photo: AFP

??“The question is whether #Europe can act together and can act on time. And the time is now” ? ???Last week ODI Global Risks and Resilience’s Olena Borodyna (Geopolitical Risks Advisor), joined ODI Global’s Think Change podcast to discuss the far-reaching impacts of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine on global security and economic stability. ? Increasing individualist #US foreign policy, shifting great power rivalries and the rise of far-right movements in Europe make the future of Ukraine uncertain. ? This only amplifies growing insecurity regarding whether Russia can be trusted to uphold any potential deal that is reached, and cascading risks for the broader security environment, such as an increase in defence spending in Europe and #NATO being in jeopardy as Western division grows. ? And at the heart of the discussion lies the question: Will Europe step in as a unified force and act in time to aid Ukraine? Or will its fate, and Europe’s, be determined without their interests at the table? ? ?? In an attempt to provide an answer, key elements which may influence the outcome of the war are explored in the episode, such as: ???Divisions in Western unity ??Increase in European defence spending ??The importance of Ukrainian rare mineral wealth A must-listen for anyone concerned about the future of international security. ?? Tune in here, or find Think Change on your preferred podcast app: https://lnkd.in/eFSAD2qb #ThinkChangePodcast #RussiaUkraineWar #GlobalSecurity #Geopolitics

???The world is once again experiencing a profound shift in global power dynamics, disrupting the current?geopolitical,?economic?and security?systems. The West is grappling with growing internal division, an isolationist #US and #Europe increasing defence spending as Trump threatens to withdraw security guarantees from European allies, and the US appears to edge closer to #Russia. Simultaneously, tensions between the US and #China continue to escalate, with tit for tat tariffs and export controls and China’s influence in once US dominated technology and military domains expanding. ? ??At?ODI Global Risks and Resilience, we are addressing this insecurity vacuum through our new Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change (CGGC).? ? Our research explores the interconnected disruptors shaping today’s world, including the growing importance of critical minerals, shifting global trade routes, and how these developments interlink with the reconfiguration of the international system.? ? We examine China's growing influence, its approach to?multilateralism?and ambitions to reimagine the global order, as well as geopolitical tensions across broader Eurasia. ? ???With over 60 years of experience, our mission is to deliver cutting-edge, solutions-driven research, uncover fresh insights, and offer new perspectives on the critical issues impacting businesses and governments in national, global, and developing contexts—informing some of the toughest decisions of our time.? ? Through our research, we aim to propose innovative approaches to understanding global risk and building resilience in an increasingly volatile and transitional global environment.? ? ??Discover our research and learn how you can become a collaborating partner here:?https://lnkd.in/exP72Cv7 Dr Rebecca Nadin Sara Pantuliano Susan E. Walton Ali Serim Olena Borodyna Elena Kiryakova Prof. Dominic McVey MBE Hans Peter Lankes Suma Chakrabarti Mauricio Vazquez ODI Global