ZUMA THE SPOILER, ANC FEARS FOKKOL, A VOLDEMORT YEAR FOR GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK!

Dear readers,

Welcome to another Bigger Picture Newsletter. As South Africans return to the office with renewed energy having splashed in the waves and soaked up the sun after the December holiday – well apart from those who went to Durban and Umhlanga with its lingering poo problem - the ANC is considering what they should do to solve the two-timing problem that is Zuma.

John Steenhuisen, the leader of the official opposition, is tweeting by the hour on every issue ranging from ANC VIP Protection to leaders eating cake while the country suffers. He is calling for action against Minister Blade Nzimande for alleged corruption linked to student loans. This has struck a nerve as universities brace themselves for the fallout.

Other opposition leaders in South Africa, as we predicted, are focusing on migrants and have now swapped the age-old practice of kissing babies in front of the cameras for border patrols.

If the first week of the election run-up in South Africa is anything to go by, it’s going to take a big swig of something potent to keep up with the election campaign. It started with rumours of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s “ill-health”, but he appeared the next day denying that he is ill.

In this newsletter, we also take a look at South Africa’s application to the International Criminal Court to censor Israel for genocide, other elections in Africa and why young African voters do not rise up and get rid of autocratic leaders.

Further afield, we catch up with the latest on the US Presidential election where Donald Trump refused to sign a pledge not to overthrow the government. More importantly, the Supreme Court will decide if Trump can stay on the 2024 ballots.

This will definitely be a year to buckle up for global political risk. One of the most prominent political risk agencies has called 2024 “The Voldemort of years…the year that must not be named” in its annual forecast for the next 12 months.

Happy reading!

HOW DO YOU SOLVE A PROBLEM LIKE ZUMA

Two-timing Zuma:??After announcing that his conscience would not allow him to vote for the ANC in the upcoming elections; Zuma was, according to the Sunday Times, outed by a member of the newly formed political party Umkhonto we Sizwe, as the brains behind the MK party. Mshlozi is said to have been startled when this was revealed. It appeared he thought he could continue to ride both horses.

Will the ANC throw Zuma out of the party? The ANC has made no move to officially expel the former President from the party, with News24 reporting that ANC insiders indicated it was not a priority. ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula revealed at an ANC cadre meeting on Sunday that Zuma has “expelled himself.” Judging from Zuma’s Stalingrad tactics in all his legal cases, this is probably a wise move as he would most likely try to drag disciplinary procedures out forever if they start proceedings against him.

Swimming/ fire pool issue floats up again: Mbalula, however, dropped another ‘water’ bomb admitting that the ANC lied about the R3.9 m pool at former President Jacob Zuma’s Nkandla homestead, which was justified as a “fire pool.”

Presidential pardon for Zuma?: Zuma has lobbied President Cyril Ramaphosa for a pardon for the corruption charges against him, but so far that has been ignored. Prof William Gumede speculates that Zuma and the MK party could become kingmakers in KZN which would force the ANC to negotiate with MK and the EFF. It will give Zuma a strong hand to bargain for numerous concessions in return for a coalition. “It is likely”, he says “that Zuma would demand a presidential pardon for a coalition agreement with the ANC, whether at provincial or national level.”

Zuma, the spoiler: University of Johannesburg’s Prof Theo Venter told Biznews that Zuma would be a spoiler in the election. He said the ANC was caught off guard as the MK party was registered in Sept of 2023 with South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission. “They should have watched what is happening in terms of newly registered political parties,” he said.?

RAMAPHOSA’S HEALTH

Fit as a fiddle: Over the weekend, rumours were doing the rounds on social media that President Cyril Ramaphosa had been rushed to hospital. This came after the South African President failed to make an appearance during National Executive Committee engagements in Mbombela for the party’s 112-year celebrations. His spokesperson Vincent Magwenya, was quick to dismiss the claims saying that the “President was fine, he was?never hospitalised and there was no emergency.” Ramaphosa re-appeared the next day, stating that the news of his illness was “extremely exaggerated.”

LET US EAT CAKE, WE FEAR? FOKKOL

A big birthday cake: The ANC’s 112th anniversary that took place on January 8th is normally celebrated with a gigantic black, yellow, and green cake. It has also become an analogy of the party’s upper echelons stuffing their faces with little regard for the unemployed and even hungry masses - like Marie Antoinette, although apparently she did not say the infamous words, 'Let them eat cake.' It is also symbolic of the ANC, which shares the spoils of the country among itself in the name of cadre deployment.

ANC is not dead… it fears fokkol: Now, who says Afrikaans is dead? Ramaphosa used this phrase in 2022 in Parliament when he was asked if he was scared of his police minister and this week at the gravesite of Dr Enoz Mabuza, he used it to describe the ANC. The ANC is not dead, it’s not scared of anything. “It fears fokkol,” he said.

KNIVES OUT FOR NZIMANDE

Steenhuisen goes after Nzimande: Democratic Alliance? leader John Steenhuisen has announced that the party plans to open a criminal case against High Education Minister Blade Nzimande following corruption allegations against him. This comes after Undoing Tax Abuse (Outa) leaked a series of recordings alleging corruption in the National Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS) involving millions of rands in kickbacks from service providers who were awarded multi-million rand tenders.

My conscience is clear: The Minister denied all the accusations and said it stemmed from his efforts to fight corruption within the organisation. He vowed to sue Outa for 'nefarious lies'.

Angry students without money, some without food: The South African Union of Students (SAUS) has warned of radical action if Mr Nzimande is not fired and the NSFAS board is not dissolved immediately. The student body warned that 87,000 tertiary students could be left out in the cold. Prof Theo Venter told Biznews that many of the students use some of the R100,000 a year funding from NSFAS to support their families. He warned that universities, not the Minister would bear the brunt of student anger. ??

OPPOSITION PARTIES ON BORDER PATROL

Boats across the Limpopo: British politicians are campaigning on the issue of migrants crossing the English Channel or La Manche as the French call it, but Gayton McKinzie the leader of the Patriotic Alliance has zoomed in on boats across the Limpopo River. The party claimed that it turned back 700 people attempting to cross the river.

The uncle took it away - Parents from Borcherds in George were not impressed when McKenzie arrived with great fanfare bearing new bicycles for children, but after the children unwrapped the bikes the children were told the bikes were meant for a bicycle park, that has not been established yet, it wasn’t theirs to keep. The national spokesperson denied the allegation that the PA hijacked the children’s Xmas with Steve Motale saying, McKenzie wouldn’t dream of doing such a thing in a million years.”

SOUTH AFRICA AGAINST ISRAEL AT ICC

Look at us, beacons of morality: South Africa’s Head of Public Diplomacy Clayson Monyela can’t believe his luck that South Africa is leading the international agenda fighting against what they deem to be Israeli apartheid. ?This pertains to a case that South Africa launched at the United Nations’ top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), alleging that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza amounts to genocide. Monyela has tweeted about South Africa flexing “its diplomatic muscle in defence of humanity.” He listed every overseas government that have endorsed the application, notably absent from this list were Western governments.

But: It was not long ago the ANC Government was considering repealing? the country’s membership of the International Criminal Court. In April 2023 the ANC said it wanted to pull out of the ICC after it issued a warrant of arrest in March 2023, accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of war crimes for illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine

What about Al-Bashir:? Remember the case of the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir who decided to stop over in South Africa for the 2015 African Union summit, the one who is wanted by the ICC on charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity? The ANC government refused to arrest him and the ICC ruled that South Africa had failed to comply with its obligations as a signatory to the Roman Statute.

Selective neutrality that could hurt: So, is the South African Government saying it respects the International Court of Justice and not the other court in The Hague, the International Criminal Court, or is it selective neutrality? The director-general of the department of international relations and co-operation, Zane Dangor said South Africa is preparing for a diplomatic backlash from the US and Europe as the government takes on Israel in the ICJ. Dangor indicated that there is a plan to counter expected Western opposition but did not elaborate on what that would entail.

TRUMP’S BIG LEGAL WEEK?

The Republican party’s frontrunner in the U.S. Presidential race, Donald Trump, will have to deal with multiple court deadlines this week. He is facing four criminal indictments with a total of 91 charges. Trump denies all the charges, calling them a witch hunt.

Presidential immunity: In what the Washington Post referred to as ‘the art of the appeal’ – a phrase that may sound familiar to South Africans – the U.S. Court of Appeals for D.C. will hear arguments this week on whether presidential immunity shields Trump from being prosecuted for actions while he was in office. This is one of the hearings that Trump is expected to attend.

The Trump Bump: Trump has asked the Supreme Court to weigh in on Colorado’s decision to bump the former president from its state ballot. He is also appealing in a state court against the decision of Maine secretary of state that he is ineligible to run for president because he engaged in insurrection. Main voters said that Trump violated his oath of office because he engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States.

Trump's still in the lead: The former Republican president has strongly dismissed the validity of these arguments and continues to lead the Republican nomination race by a considerable margin. His closest competitors including Florida Governor Ron deSantis are struggling to maintain double-digit support. A recent survey has found that Trump is leading President Joe Biden in 5 key swing states.

A VOLDEMORT YEAR FOR GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

The year that must not be named: The Eurasia group came up with that name for global political risk in 2024, drawing parallels to the evil Voldemort found in the Harry Potter book and films. The reason for the gloomy forecast stems from three wars: Russia/Ukraine, Israel vs Hamas in its third month and with the potential to spread further.?

Right at the top of the list: 'The United States vs Itself' which the group described as a US political system that “is remarkably divided, and its legitimacy and functionality have eroded accordingly.”

OTHER ELECTIONS TO WATCH

Comoros Island: Over a third of Africa's 54 countries are holding elections this year. The Comoros Islands, a small archipelago nation in the Indian Ocean, is set for presidential elections on January 14, 2024. Incumbent President Azali Assoumani seeks re-election with the major issues revolving around the voting rights of the Comorian diaspora and a threat by the opposition to boycott the elections they deem to be not to be democratic, fair and inclusive.?

AFRICAN YOUTH IS NOT SAVING DEMOCRACY

Despite Africa having the world's largest youth population, currently expected to reach 500 million by 2080, this demographic doesn't actively oppose autocratic regimes. The authors in this article in the Conversation explain how the authoritarian rule book influences the behaviour of young people in the countries they studied.

WHO LIKES TO BE BACK AT WORK – THIS MOUSE WITH OCD

While journalists enjoy election seasons, for many, this week has not been a particularly positive experience. It is back to work facing long dark nights in the northern hemisphere and whatever those positive Finns have to say, it is pretty dreary. So, I have decided to share the video on a mouse with OCD.

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