Zombie Apocalypse 2016...Seriously?

I wrote my first article many years ago because a dear friend of mine wrote books and I thought “hey let me try putting thoughts into the written word.” After the first time I got some attention, but didn’t really have much to say. Then one night a bad deal submitted by a broker of mine. We had done a ton of business together so I know he knew how to do it, but just got lazy and expected me to do the heavy lifting. Wrong and then came the next article. For years emotion drove my writing and eventually moved me into education and professional sales training. Its’ funny what drives our success sometimes. So here I am today at my desk and a business partner sends me an article about the Doom and Gloom coming. Another recession? Worse than the Depression? Captivating terms like Deflation. I am seeing a lot of this lately so I read on and at the end of this riveting expose the pitch “so be saved and order my book on investing for $99.99”. I tried to let it go, but it just stuck with me all day. So here I am instead of playing with my kids and hanging out with my awesome wife. Why? Fear is why? This is completely irresponsible. Sure I get wanting to sell a product, but this ain’t the way my friend. Fear is dangerous. Very dangerous. It was fear that collapsed the entire commercial secondary market in 2008 and took out some of the longest running and most revered investment banks in the US. Yes, residential was a time bomb. A guy who owned 5 houses with no money down and we even paid for the furniture. Um. That doesn’t make any sense. It was inevitable the residential world would get demolished when teasers rates went up, borrowers didn’t get their raises, spouses lost jobs, and property values declined. Unfortunately panic and fear set in. Total mayhem and in the frenzy everyone immediate looked at commercial lenders as villains. Sure we did some loans with losses on tax returns. Again Um. The IRS allows this to foster new business which is the backbone of our country. So let’s look at that loan a little closer. In business 25 years. Owns home f/c and shore house. Kids work in business. Next generation vested. Cash flow positive and has been for years. The fact of the matter is we were writing “make sense loans” and they are still performing today. Fear and an entire market laid waste. 

Yes it hurt and hurt most of us bad. What I can say as Americans we do what we always do and survive. Had to give up the big house and sports car, sure. Kids thought the new place was cool and we were closer together. Some years later with a little hard work and many are back in the 1% of earners. That’s what hard work and perseverance can do. Now here we go again. Next bubble. Market correction. All markets and all businesses have cycles, but the End of Days? Cycles are the history of the world. So with that being said in down cycles there is Massive opportunity. Have you seen the Big Short yet? Watch it. Opportunity. So my article today for the analysts out there is when you write these stories let’s talk or end them with solutions and fresh ideas. As an employer I have always had an open door policy. We want to hear your problems, but before you walk through that door I want to hear what your solution to that problem is. Think about it before you say or write it. Sure banks are having a tough time. What if there was a way for them to offset assets and increase liquidity instantly 24/7 through technology in a down turn or even just to bolster quarterly profits in a good market? If something like that existed in 2008 many would have stayed in business and the money that went into deep pockets would have instead bought at deep discounts realizing huge opportunity. Who cares about a discount if you get to stay in business by increasing liquidity? Slow down on the assets and focus on other business lines. When CRE lending died non-real estate lenders flourished. Look at companies like Ondeck (now backed by Morgan), Kabbage, and Lending Club. Huge growth through down cycle. On CRE, all of those big buyers who would have bought discounted assets had they had instant access to the product would have been 5-10x on their returns today. I have a secret. These technologies are being built today. There will be a polar shift in lending and investing with less focus on institutions and more on secondary market funds, private investors, and new vehicles like peer to peer and crowd funding. There is a ton of money out there and discounts are available so with good cash flow where is the downside? Technology will make it all more transparent with easier access for all to communicate efficiently.  The bleeding can be stopped much faster this time and assets will just change hands much faster.   

People worker harder than they ever have before so let’s keep it positive and talk about new opportunities, emerging markets, technology, and the bright future ahead of us. Stop with the fear and whisper down the lane. Be more responsible and if you want to talk about cyclical markets let’s talk about the upside as well. We all need to pay close attention the next time reading that article that is saying this is the year we will all be looking for gasoline like Mad Max, please read the last sentence carefully because it just may say, “end of world coming, but the good news is we can sell you this bunker for the low low price of." 

Thanks for stopping by for the rant. Now back to my new show, Billions. :) CP ?