Zimbabwe's Coup

 What does it all mean? Why now? What next? ZANU-PF's self-inflicted mess

November 15, 2017

Aside from the early questions and claims by the Zimbabwean Defence Force that their actions “were not a coup,” much is now known about the events of the past two days in Harare, Zimbabwe. 

Deposed former Zimbabwean Prime Minister (1980-88) and President (1988-2017) Robert Gabriel Mugabe

First, despite their protestations to the contrary and insistence the “we are only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice," the military was in fact executing a coup d’etat meant to topple the government of Robert Gabriel Mugabe and his wife, Vice President Grace Mugabe. Even colorful, fanciful denials from the ZANU youth league can’t cover up the reality that is was a coup. 

- "Contrary to international reports, the gallant Zimbabwean Army has not staged a COUP," the ZANU PF party's youth league said on Twitter, in a message retweeted by the main party. It added, "There is n COUP in Zimbabwe. Neither is there crisis. The army is simply effecting a National Democratic Project and it's doing so with peaceful aplomb."

Mugabe’s current term in office expires in 2018, not today…. So, if it’s not a coup, what is it? The police are charged with arresting criminals, not the army using armored personnel vehicles.

Second, contrary to repeated denials from multiple quarters, the army did in fact move to detain Mugabe. "Last night the first family was detained and are safe, both for the constitution and the sanity of the nation this was necessary. Neither Zimbabwe nor ZANU are owned by Mugabe and his wife. Today begins a fresh new era and comrade Mnangagwa will help us achieve a better Zimbabwe." This tweet, purported to be from ZANU-PF makes it clear Mugabe was a target of this coup.

Third, the army seized the state broadcaster ZBC on Tuesday evening and then used it to broadcast to the nation (an odd activity for an army not involved in a coup…)

Fourth, numerous sources are reporting multiple developments, not the least of them coming from wealthy Zimbabwean media mogul Trevor Ncube who tweeted this Wednesday afternoon: “I can now confirm that Cabinet Ministers Jonathan Moyo and Saviour Kasukuwere have been picked up from President Mugabe's "Blue Roof residence to KGV1 Military Barracks.” No doubt additional pro-Mugabe and G40 faction members will find themselves in a bind or detention shortly.

How did we get here? I’ll avoid the whole sordid story of ZANU-PF corruption, lawlessness and destruction of the economy that have transpired over the past 25 years and boil this down to the proximate cause that finally led to Mugabe’s removal. So many have been either saying “finally!” or “what took so long?” in response to this coup. The reality is that Zimbabweans seems to have an unbelievable propensity to suffer misery with aplomb and display patience the rest of us can only hope to have, at least as long as they are not personally threatened…

The military finally moved only 17 years after the abrogation of law by the government with farm seizures and murders of farm workers and commercial farmers, after ZANU-PF rigged elections, after thugs murdered and assaulted countless opposition party members and voters in efforts at wholesale intimidation, after destroying a once vibrant economy, after rampant runaway inflation eviscerated the Zimbabwean dollar and after ZANU-PF refused to relinquish power when it lost an election it rigged! Why so long? That answer is simple: the elites within the security services were never at risk. However efforts to denigrate long time party members in order to discredit them and push them from the reins of power, ultimately to elevate Grace “Gucci” Mugabe to the presidency, is what ultimately precipitated the coup.

Deposed former Zimbabwean Vice President Grace Mugabe

Mugabe has always orchestrated the demise of his opponents. However, arguably, one can begin the discussion of the coup with the death in a house fire, under mysterious circumstances, of war hero and former defense commander General Solomon Mujuru on August 15, 2011. His death left his wife, Vice President Joice Mujuru vulnerable. In December 2014, Mugabe sacked Joice and seven prominent government ministers, claiming they were corrupt and of plotting to kill him. 

Former Chief of Defence Force, General Solomon Mujuru (died 15 Aug 2011)

Former Zimbabwean Vice President (2004-2014) Joice Mujuru

On Monday, November 6, 2017 Mugabe sacked Vice President Emmerson Manangagwa after accusing him of plotting to overthrow Mugabe. This came not long after Manangagwa was poisoned back in August. On November 8, 2017 Manangagwa was expelled from the ruling party. He fled to South Africa. Still this was not enough to get the army to openly move against Mugabe. In some respects, this was a bit surprising. If the army was going to act, why not when Manangagwa was dumped? As a liberation hero and former commander, he is very influential within the military and much of the party. Yet they did not act.

Former Zimbabwen Vice President (2014-2017) Emmerson Manangagwa

After Mugabe fired and marginalized Joice Mujuru, the ongoing struggles for primacy within ZANU-PF boiled down to two opposing groups. The two factions, “Team Lacoste” (Mananagawa supporters) and “G40” (Grace Mugabe supporters) have been aggressively competing for influence within ZANU-PF since not long after Mujuru's ouster. The proximate cause of the coup is likely the result of Manangagwa’s expulsion and Grace feeling her oats as G40 went after Team Lacoste members. On November 13, 2017, Chief of Defence General Constantino Chiwenga issued a public statement, thereby interjecting the army into the ZANU-PF political imbroglio. He warned that the purges within ZANU-PF must stop, a clear indication that he would not allow Team Lacoste members to be persecuted. 

When it became clear that G40 would still move forward and purge loyal cadres (Team Lacoste), the military initiated a coup d’etat, all the while denying it was a coup. So why did they act? Was it to save Mananagagwa? Probably not entirely. After all, the military did not act when he was poisoned, when he was sacked, or even when he was expelled from the party. In the end we will eventually learn that Chiwenga’s assessment was that with Grace Mugabe being so unpopular within Zimababwe and a full court press underway to remove any opposition to her ascendency to the presidency, they had to act. You see, events played out like this for the Zimbabwean Defence Force:

“When they came for the commercial farmers we did nothing to uphold the law. When they intimidated and beat the opposition MDC, we did nothing. When they came for Solomon Mujuru, we did nothing. When they came for Joice Mujuru, we did nothing. When they came for Emmerson Manangagwa, we did nothing. When they came for the remaining Team Lacoste faction, we hesitated, until we realized there is no one left.... Who will they come for next? Us! And then we intervened……”

The military and affiliated political elites intervened and removed Mugabe in their own self-interest. This coup was not about the Zimbabwean people. It was pure self-interest. Why did this take so long, so many, many years of suffering and destruction for them to intervene? The answer is that these military and political elites profited from the existing corrupt ZANU-PF governance structure. As long as there were benefits from that system and no threat to their own status, they were content to let Zimbabweans suffer. They only acted when, from their perspective, directly at risk themselves. The state never declared martial law, consequently their actions are extralegal and wrong.

There are lots of rumors flying around now about a government of national unity and no elections for five years. The people of Zimbabwe do not deserve to wait that long.