Zimbabwe’s 2018 General Election

November 30, 2017

In remarks during his swearing-in ceremony, former Zimbabwean Vice President and interim President Emmerson Mnangagwa stated that Zimbabwe’s general election scheduled for September 2018 (at the latest) will go forward. We will take him at his word, for the moment. Pardon observers if we are reticent to place full trust in the man who led the brutal campaign against the political opposition in the 2008 campaign and who sought refuge in South Africa only days ago, only to return after a military coup installed him as Zimbabwe’s president. Credibility is earned, especially when it comes to ZANU-PF veteran operatives. And that credibility question extends to the supreme court as well. The same court that seems to have spent all of ten minutes investigating the curious case of the "coup that was not a coup," before declaring that the ZDF acted "within the law" when it forced Mugabe out of office...

Let’s assume the election does take place next year in 2018. Who will Zimbabweans see competing for the office of president? If there is no political violence and the election is genuinely free and fair, we may indeed see several candidates and even new political parties arise to offer candidates. However, first and foremost, the usual suspects come to mind:

The "Crocodile" Emmerson Mnangagwa, 75 sworn in as Zimbabwe's President (November 2017, CNN)

·        Emmerson Mnangagwa (ZANU-PF), 75 - with his hands on the rudder, finally, the Crocodile is unlikely to change or reform ZANU-PF. He may do some cosmetic changes like prosecuting government or former government officials for corruption, as long as they are not Team Lacoste or offering at least a pretense of the appearance of democratic governance. Also, after 37 years in powerful senior levels of government, the Crocodile is unlikely to be interested in riding into the sunset, even at age 76. Short of some dramatic revelation or a falling out with the ZDF, you can count on Mnangagwa running in 2018.

Former Vice President Joice Mujuru, 62 (source: Al Jazeera)

 ·        Joice Mujuru (ZIMFIRST), 62 - No doubt still angry at how Mugabe treated her and the death of her husband, Joice remains interested in the reins of power and will likely seek to win in 2018. The key question is how will she run? From ZANU-PF or another party? Her support base would appear to be gone within ZANU-PF and the MDC has zero interest in taking her on. She has previously mentioned the Zimbabwe People First party (formed in 2015) and may be their best hope to gain traction.

MDC President & former Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, 65

 ·        Morgan Tsvangirai (MDC), 65 - the former trade unionist, current president of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change and former Zimbabwean Prime Minister will undoubtedly seek to drive the MDC to victory. If the elections are free, he stands a very good chance of becoming Zimbabwe’s next president. The disastrous internal MDC split which led to two MDC factions competing and splitting the vote in the last go around should be healed in time for 2018. In any case the MDC-N faction (named after its leader Welshman Ncube) is a non-factor with only 200,000 votes. If the re-merged MDC works together and people feel free to vote their conscience, the MDC should win easily.

There are other potential candidates and even some wild cards living abroad who might come back to run for office. But that all hinges on free and fair elections. Events over the next six months will set the stage for the election. And what of prominent diaspora Zimbabweans? Could newspaper mogul Trevor Ncube be interested in the political scene? What about Zimbabwean telecommunications pioneer Strive Masiyiwa? Time will tell.

Chris Wyatt, Carlisle, Pennsylvania

Below: Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe