Zelensky might baulk at any deal and could literally go nuclear

Alan Dupont

THE AUSTRALIAN 19 Nov 2024

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Despite Donald Trump’s boast to end the war in Ukraine in a day, the end game is not in sight. But it’s nearing a critical inflexion point. President Volodymyr Zelensky will come under heavy pressure from the newly elected Trump administration to reach a settlement with Moscow. But if he’s backed into a corner the risk is that Zelensky could literally go nuclear, opting to develop nuclear weapons of his own – the ultimate security guarantee.

Contrary to the view of the parochially minded, the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will have global consequences. And Australia won’t be immune. A Vladimir Putin win will encourage his expansionist impulses in Asia, as well as Europe, strengthen the axis of autocrats, enervate the democracies and promote a deals-based order where the strong do what they will and the rest of us have to roll with the punches.

How the self-proclaimed master of the deal chooses to intervene in the Ukraine conflict will also tell us much about America’s international policy in a Trump redux world. There is little doubt the president-elect will take a more muscular approach than his risk-averse predecessor. Joe Biden placed so many constraints on the use of American weaponry that Kyiv was never able to fully exploit Russia’s weaknesses or seriously contemplate retaking Crimea and the Russian-occupied Donbas region. Biden’s 11th-hour concession allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range US missiles is too little, too late.

The core elements of Trump’s peace plan are beginning to take shape. If Trump has his way, Kyiv will have to give up territory in exchange for US security assurances and European financial support for post-war reconstruction. The current battlelines would become a de facto border and heavily fortified, 1200km-long demilitarised zone patrolled by a multinational peacekeeping force that won’t include Americans.

This would leave Putin in control of 20 per cent of Ukraine, for which he has paid a heavy price in blood and treasure. More than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. Economically, the war has been a disaster. Russia’s strategic position has been weakened by the self-inflicted enlargement of NATO to include Sweden and Finland along its northwestern border.

It’s hard to see Ukraine being able to fight on without substantial and continuing US military support, which is unlikely to be forthcoming under a Trump administration. A beleaguered Zelensky may have to accept a Trump-brokered deal since Europe isn’t willing or able to fill the gap. Embarrassingly, the EU couldn’t even provide the million 155mm artillery shells promised to Ukraine by March.

Getting Putin to agree will be more difficult. He is adamantly opposed to NATO membership for Ukraine, which is likely to emerge as a key sticking point in negotiations. But although Trump can’t dictate the outcome, he has significant leverage. Should Putin dig in his heels, or overreach in the belief he can extract more concessions, Trump could threaten to untie Zelensky’s hands by allowing him to target Russia with long-range missiles.

The president-elect could also weaponise his country’s abundant oil and gas by making good on his promise to “drill, baby, drill”, forcing down the price of the two commodities that fund Putin’s war machine and sustain Russia’s economy. Remember the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 after an extended period of low oil prices.

Complicating any negotiations is the deepening internationalisation of the Ukraine conflict with the shock news that 12,000 elite special forces troops from North Korea’s “Storm Corps” are fighting on Russia’s side. This will complicate peace negotiations, and underscores how the conflict is morphing into a Eurasia-wide struggle for geopolitical ascendancy.

The North Koreans won’t change the course of the war. But it serves a useful tactical and political purpose for Putin, relieving pressure on overstretched Russian units and deepening the sense of isolation Ukrainians feel as the axis forces work in tandem to crush their resistance. On Zelensky’s side of the ledger, Europe’s support is softening and the Americans are poised to bail out.

A concern for our region is the valuable combat experience North Korean troops will gain fighting on a modern battlefield. Under the terms of a new bilateral defence pact signed in June, Russia will pay North Korea $US200m ($309m) for its troops and provide missile and satellite technology as well as 700,000 tonnes of rice to relieve the hermit kingdom’s chronic food shortages.

None of this augurs well for stability on the Korean Peninsula given North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s penchant for sabre rattling and provocative testing of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. These are highly destabilising and could easily ignite an Asia-wide conflict. A second Korean war would almost certainly be our war too because of Australia’s historical commitment to the defence of South Korea.

Seoul could soon become a significant player in Ukraine. The Yoon Suk Yeol government has resisted Western pressure to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine. But Kim’s dispatch of his special forces is forcing a policy rethink, although the outcome remains uncertain. Yoon is unpopular, and 70 per cent of his fellow citizens are opposed to greater involvement in Ukraine.

Putin has threatened to beef up military assistance to North Korea should Seoul make the “very big mistake” of arming Ukraine with missiles and much needed artillery shells. He knows South Korea has 3.4 million 105mm artillery shells in stock, which could help fill Ukraine’s depleted inventory.

Trump’s fondness for dictators is another problem for Yoon as it is for other democracies. Famously denigrated by Trump during his first term as “little rocket man”, Kim reciprocated by calling Trump “a mentally deranged US dotard”, before their bromance blossomed. On the campaign trail Trump professed his fondness for North Korea’s leader, who now self-identifies as the “Great Comrade”. “It’s nice to get along when someone has nuclear weapons,” said Trump in July. “I think he (Kim) misses me, if you want to know the truth.”

How all this plays out is anyone’s guess. But one thing is certain. Democracies need to toughen up and match the defence spending and single-mindedness of the autocrats. They play to win; we play not to lose. That’s a recipe for failure.

Alan Dupont is chief executive officer of geopolitical risk consultancy The Cognoscenti Group and a nonresident fellow at the Lowy Institute.