Will ZA pass a 1200 infections next week (26 March)

Using a very simple 3 day moving average (current 34% daily growth and 242% 3 day growth) projections off a simple model are we'll pass 1200 infections by 26 March. The model shows seems to indicate very closely actual infections based off official data: 17 March - 85 vs 86, 18 March - 116 vs 112, 19 March - 150 vs 153. Will today (27 March) be close to the 206 forecasted? Minister Mkhize alluded to yes. I hope this model is wrong, but need to implement stringent measures now or we will come the rates of infection he forecast.

Below is the model extrapolated for the next week (smoothed) at 34% - current rate shows dire consequences in a month where we may hit full hospital bed saturation, i.e start of the breakdown of medical system; the limit of the "flatten the curve" maxima.

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Colin Iles ????????????????????

Curating Thought Leadership for CEOs Looking to Make a Difference | Innovation Catalyst | Matchmaker | Executive Coaching | Visioning Strategist | Strategy Facilitation | Recovering Banker | Once a CA

4 年

Craig Wing i’ve shard your post to the South Africa Group in this community - https://covid19.mn.co/groups/2021216/feed (Gerry Skerritt fyi)

Colin Iles ????????????????????

Curating Thought Leadership for CEOs Looking to Make a Difference | Innovation Catalyst | Matchmaker | Executive Coaching | Visioning Strategist | Strategy Facilitation | Recovering Banker | Once a CA

4 年

More likely (sadly) it does than doesn’t.

Edzai Zvobwo

ENTP | Acalytica | TEDSF | Social Innovation | Green Energy | EdTech | Leadership | Causal AI | Digital Transformation | Learning Analytics | Digital Marketing | Product Management | Inclusive Capitalism | Job Creation

4 年

Thanks Craig really great work

Theresa Vitale

Digital Media & Marketing | Business Growth | Branding | Acumen Media Management | LSC-Creative

4 年

Interesting

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