Yuan Currency Crisis
China is on the verge of a currency devaluation. There has never been so many strong reasons for it.
To set the stage, China’s credit imbalances dwarf anything ever seen. A 400% growth in banking assets since ’08. Incomparable to any other major economy.
Debt/GDP at levels that precipitated other major global crises:
When a highly indebted EM economy resorts to aggressive easing, it typically leads to currency crisis. Here are 3 monetary pedals that China has to the floor today:
1) Significant cuts in RRR for major banks. This has served as a magnet for $CNY in the last 20 years.
2) US vs. China real yield differential is now at its lowest level since the Great Recession. This spread moves in sync with $CNY and suggests further devaluation.
3) The Fed added $400B to its balance sheet in 6 months. The PBOC added $380B of net OMO injections in just 1 month!
A shrinking current account (CA) adds further downward pressure on a currency. China’s CA declined by 8 pct pts since Dec 2008. Argentina had a similar move over the same period, and $ARS lost 94% of its value.
China now suffers from a significant stagflation.
Note that copper isn’t rallying as it did in 2017. It’s collapsing. Chinese economic growth isn’t picking up either, it’s crumbling. This is not another soft landing.
% of yield curve inversions have already exceeded critical levels globally:
- HK was 83% a month ago
- US reached 73% in August
- Canada, 89%!
These are credit distortions that reliably coincide with or lead to economic downturns.
Related FX markets are sending warning signals. $BRL is now at its worst level in history. Previous $BRL selloffs have led to $CNY declines.
$CAD is on a massive bearish flag. Another commodity driven economy with strong ties to China.
The Coronavirus is just the tip of the iceberg. China is largest credit imbalance in history now facing its Lehman Brothers’ moment. The bust will be globally contagious.
Service Delivery Leader, Banking, Credit Analysis, FLOD, SLOD, Change Management, Views here on LinkedIn are my own????
4 年What's with CAD....thought it was one of the more cleaner shirts, Otavio (Tavi) Costa
Advanced Analytics + Strategy
4 年You make a strong argument for your position.
Mental health advocate & K9 Handler
4 年Don’t these bearish views on China run counter to your bullish silver view?
Directeur des Opérations / Chief Operating Officer (COO) | Directeur de l'Offre / Head of Investments
4 年Great article Otavio. How do you suggest playing this ? Simply shorty CNY?
Economist, founder, investor
4 年I think the US-China political backdrop is underrepresented in this analysis, but apart from that very interesting read. Will China risk reigniting the inevitable tariff war in case of devaluation? Difficult ballancing act here...