YouTube versus Time Warner Cable for millennial viewers

YouTube claims it reaches more 18-49 year-olds on mobile alone than any TV network. Time Warner Cable was having none of it, saying TV still had the better engagement for millennial viewers. No matter who’s right, the momentum is with OTT and mobile.

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Last week, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki, citing Nielsen data, laid out a startling claim:

“I’m happy to announce that on mobile alone YouTube now reaches more 18- to 49-year-olds than any network -- broadcast or cable. In fact, we reach more 18- to 49-year-olds [in the U.S.] during prime time than the top 10 TV shows combined.”

Head of Time Warner Cable Media marketing Fred Bucher cited Nielsen data from Q3 2015 that shows 95% of video consumption still occurs at the TV with just 4% occurring on the PC, 1% on the smartphone, and nothing at all on the tablet. He went on to say that among millennials TV still represents 88% of video consumption, the PC 8%, and tablet and smartphone 2% each.

Trying to compare both these claims is difficult, because both are using a different measurement method. It’s also not very relevant. There are plenty of stories in just the last week showing clearly that the momentum is toward online and mobile, and away from traditional linear television.

Millennials are watching less TV

Howard Horowitz Research says that 18-34 year-olds are spending 54% of their TV viewing time streaming and 25% viewing live TV. That compares to the average TV viewer who is watching 50% of viewing with live TV and 29% streaming. This shows a huge shift toward streaming in the last four years. In 2012, 15% of millennial viewing was streamed, while 75% was traditional television.

Online originals continue to multiply

There are plenty of online originals for millennials to choose from, and they are increasingly coming from non-traditional sources. For example, Spotify announced it is increasing its slate of original programming. The company will deliver 12 new shows, focused on music and pop culture, and are targeted for mobile consumption. No episode will be longer than 15 minutes and will be available for free or by paid subscription.

There are as many smartphones as TVs

According to the Consumer Trade Association households in the U.S. have almost as many smartphones as televisions. There are 2.4 smartphones per home and 2.8 televisions. While smartphone penetration in the general population is deep (at 68%,) among millennials it is almost universal. Pew Research found 86% of 18-29 year-olds had a smartphone mid-2015.

Advertising Dollars are Moving

Magna Global will shift $250M in advertising from television to YouTube in 2016. That represents a 5 times increase over what it spent last year on the platform. However, it is only about 5% of the agencies TV budget.

Millennial TV viewing is plummeting

After the YouTube and TWC claims, Broadcasting and Cable did some fact checking, and what the publication found certainly confirmed the millennial trend away from primetime television viewing. Some shows have lost as much as 30-40% of their millennial audience. As well, 18-34 live-plus-same ratings are way down. For example, ABC is down nearly 19% in the 18-34 year-olds, and The CW (which targets a younger audience) is down 16%. Overall, Broadcast and Cable found among the top five broadcast networks, live-plus-same-day ratings are down 10% in the 18-32 year-olds.

Though many millennials are still watching a lot of TV the momentum is strongly toward mobile and OTT viewing. TWC executives need to figure out how to deal with that, before the flight of advertising money turns from a trickle to a flood.

Why it matters

YouTube claims it can reach more millennials than TV, the TV industry claims the reverse.

It doesn’t matter who is correct, a torrent of data shows the momentum is away from TV toward mobile and OTT.