YouTube Should Fear Web 3.0: Here's Why (By The Numbers)
Peter Csathy
AI, Media, Entertainment & Tech Expert, Dealmaker, Business Consultant, Lawyer, Connector
A decentralized Web 3.0 creator/content/media world poses a real threat to YouTube. Absolutely. A massive one. Downright existential. Here's why - by the numbers that count - the number of video views that drive YouTube's ad-driven business model (the more views, the more ad dollars of course).
A 2018 study showed that the top 3% of Creator channels on YouTube (as measured by subscriber count) drove 90% of video views (those 2018 numbers are likely still directionally correct at least today). While rates fluctuate for Creators (depending on their scale), YouTube typically takes 45% of ad dollars generated, leaving only 55% for the Creators. So, let's say just 20% of YouTube's top Creators decide enough is enough - that they no longer need YouTube (and pay its heavy toll) because they have already established their own brand, audience and fan relationships. With Web 3.0, those Creators can now go direct to their audience/fans with their videos - and their audience/fans can finance them directly via?#NFTs?and other blockchain-based Web 3.0 means, giving essentially 100% of revenues to those Creators (which fuels even more creativity). That means $0 to YouTube. And, Creators can even give their audience/fans an opportunity to share in the value they create, thereby incentivizing them to promote and push the content even more (which drives even more monetization for Creators).
Let's go back to that 20% number of Creator defections from YouTube at the hands of Web 3.0. That would mean that overall YouTube views and ad revenues would be down 18%. That would be a huge blow to Google/YouTube. And what if defections were 30%? 40%? Even more? This is the new Web 3.0 reality that is now just in its early innings - which would finally realize the long-held promise of direct Creator distribution and monetization.
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And here's one more thing. A critical one. Web 3.0 will upend today's society-killing ad-fueled Web 2.0 business models by YouTube's (and Facebook's/Instagram's) "maximum amplification" algorithms that prioritize consumption fueled by hate, conspiracy theories and lies (because that emotionally-laden content maximizes views and overall engagement). As Facebook's former Chief of Security Officer Alex Stamos just discussed in this recent podcast interview (which I recommend), the "maximum engagement/amplification" teams at Facebook (and Google/YouTube) always win. Yes, these social network behemoths know the devastating damage they wreak - and know how to mitigate/fix it - but the product teams' raison d'etre of maximizing numbers ALWAYS wins. Web 3.0's direct Creator/Fan relationship - which enables entirely new NON ad-driven business models - fixes all that destruction (or at least mitigates it substantially).
So yes Virginia, there is a real existential threat posed by Web 3.0 to YouTube (and other social media). That means YouTube (I mean, you too), Zuck!?
Co-Founder at Shadrach
2 年Creators go to platforms like Youtube for scale. We know that the economics?of web 3.0 will benefit?the creator, and the value?appreciation?of the token should benefit the fan (If they appreciate).? That said,?most YouTube Creators don't?have an actual direct relationship with the Consumer?off the platform. Remove the platform, and lots of the creators lose that fan. Most importantly, IMHO, the creator fans have never Paid for access to the creator. That is a much bigger bridge to cross.? So what % of your YouTube fan base do you need to move off of Youtube (or other platforms) and pay for the creator to make more money and make it worth it? The smaller %, the higher probability that this is a real threat, the higher the less so....Oh and YT can always change the economics to push off the treat, they have the margin to do so. We shall see.
COO/Founding Team, Bunches (where sports fans chat) I MBA, Harvard Business School
2 年NFTs represent a whole new avenue for creators to engage with their audience, extend their brands and IP, and drive revenue over time. You can't overstate the value creators see/will see in this direct relationship with their audience.
Content Angel ?? Content Marketing consultant and strategist. Content Creator for SMBs. Digital inclusion, accessibility & mental health advocate. Cockapoo & horse super fan.
2 年It’s exciting to see where this all goes. It’s a great time to be a creator.
Website Operations & Strategy, SEO, Analytics
2 年Another value that creators get with the Web 3/Decentralized model is they get to own their audience. YT does a pretty darn god job of obscuring who the audience really is. It's like a reverse field of dreams: if a creator leaves Youtube, will their audience follow? Will they get thousands of views if they aren't part of the YT system?