Your Renaissance

Change Behavior – Recharge Productivity – Unleash Opportunity

This is not a conservative political article, per se. Facts. Are we data-driven or not?

To Create Your Renaissance, First Understand Your Dark Age

Life is what you make it. We can choose to be optimistic or pessimistic - personally and professionally. How is it then that at a time of unparalleled prosperity (“short-term” COVID-19 aside), ~30% of US citizens view socialism and communism favorably? Is our flirtation with well-proven historical devastation explained by stagnant wages, educational malfeasance, global warming nihilism…

…or loss of our American Dream? It is the latter, though not for reasons many may believe. If the American Dream is about making the next generation’s life better than the prior one’s, economics is primary. The metric of economics to study then is individual Productivity, defined as GDP growth – inflation – federal deficit spending – per capita impact. Productivity growth has lessened for 70 years:

If you identify the factors behind the degradation of productivity, you could change behaviors to experience a new growth Renaissance. As long-term productivity growth mirrors the wealth of a nation (or person), reversing productivity’s slowdown can increase opportunity in which Happiness can flourish. NOTE: what follows is un-PC but is 100% data driven. Let the next 250 years of America commence!

But First, Something Completely Different: Regression Primer (skip if known)

Sorry about this. Lies, damn lies, and then there’s statistics, so the saying goes. Without getting into too many specifics, statistical studies should ALWAYS be considered with a hefty grain of salt. Of note, I refer to the relation of regression factor coefficients as well as correlation between actual Productivity and various factors that may theoretically explain (i.e. predict) the variation in economic (or other) data. 

According to Wikipedia, “regression analysis is a set of statistical processes for estimating relationships between a dependent variable [a data series, like productivity]…and one or more independent variables [factors] .” Clear as mud now? Basically put, regressing one or more factors against a data series allows you to see which factors CAUSE the model data series’ changes, like future Productivity growth rate.

Warning: correlation is not necessarily causation. Often, something that is correlated with something causes that something to happen. However, it is dangerous to simply extrapolate causation from correlation. Regression must be undertaken with care. Otherwise, you might as well invest in the stock market when skirts are short and vice versa (those two factors are correlated too…for the most part). 

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (and Implied Subsequent Renaissance)

Would it surprise you to know that just 3 factors explain 98% of the annual change in individual American Productivity – via regression! It is true, and each factor is statistically significant meaning it is not just coincidental. The factors are Government Control (yeah, okay), Births (watch it), and Men’s Labor (OMG, you did NOT go there). A remarkable correlated-only factor is Church Attendance (argh!).

LASTING CAUSAL FACTORS

• Governmentin’ (Control) – As government has grown, productivity declined = f(bureaucracy)
• Leviathan is beyond bloated now, consuming ~1/3 of economy (not including debt “tax”)
• Example – Constructing/operating a building is vastly more complicated than in the past
• Solution – Incentives decline as regulation, tax, and spending increases – cut them

• Parentin’ (Habilitation) – More demanding times engender productive actions = f(necessity)
• “If you want something done, give it to a busy person,” there is a reason for this adage
• Examples – Childrearing (multi-tasking), immigrant poverty (education outperformance)
• Solution – Believe again, be fruitful, and multiply to grow anew (not persistently shrink)

TRANSITORY CAUSAL FACTOR (i.e. mostly reflects integration of women into workforce)

• Workin’ (Perspiration) – % of men working / all men consistently declining = f(marginalization)
• IF women earn ~80% that of men, men’s fall to 50% labor reduces productivity (by definition)
• Examples – War on Men has real consequences re college, job, family, reputation, health
• Solution – Re-integrate men into society at all levels (i.e. ditch “toxic masculinity”)

When regressing just these three factors against Productivity (as defined), the resulting model-predicted values for individual American productivity explain a whopping 98% of the variation in actual individual productivity over the last 70 years with statistical significance. Let that sink in – not population size; not war/pandemics; not the Fed, not OPEC; not debt; not even Presidents. Just three factors alone!

CORRELATED-ONLY FACTOR

This correlated factor is also noteworthy. At 0.9 (1.0 being perfect positive) correlation, it is spot-on. That is almost perfect positive correlation of this factor with Productivity. Alas, it does not display statistical significance. Its inclusion leads to regression disruption, rendering the model less reliable. Put another way, productive people tend to go to church, but that action does not cause productivity.

• Churchin’ (Inspiration) – Tested truths are the primary truths of life = f(wisdom)
• You’d think we’d learn from ancient/recent history, but humans just never seem to
• Example – Famed Protestant work ethic idea exists for a reason, values are contagious
• Implication – Reduce humanism/external validation, apply eternal truths = security

To GROW Faster Than Ever, Embrace What Works!

So, am I calling for an effective return to the 1950’s: i.e. barefoot, pregnant, holy, and free? No, just a return of common sense. Most of secular gender workforce integration is now complete. However, a course correction is overdue. By rejecting dysfunctional Third Wave Feminism now, we can re-embrace men in the workforce, academia, families et al. We all have everything to gain from their inclusion.

Reducing government? That is a no-brainer for Productivity reignition. The challenge then for you and society – aside the will to change any behavior politically – is to return to the nuclear family as the ideal (without stigmatizing others) and re-focusing our lives around building the future: our yet-to-be-born children. Of course, that would probably mean tectonic changes regarding Family Courts, abortion, etc.

We’re doing our Dark Age to ourselves. Productivity flows from behavior. From productivity flows wealth and opportunity. From wealth and opportunity flows a real chance at Happiness – personally and nationally. Want to have a better future? Reduce government, raise children, and go to church. Ease up on men, too. You’ll free your capacity to grow, regardless of risks. Create Your Renaissance!

As stated, this article is un-PC but is very data driven. Facts. Are we logically or politically motivated?