Make extremely better DECISIONS.

It's 2am, you're not tired and super hungry. You decide to make a pizza. It's a horrible decision because if you do that over and over you know what will happen. Great decisions a majority of the time actually come from great predictions. If you predicted that you will get fat eating the pizza but you would satisfy your hunger eating just a banana, you would have made a better decision. Some things are obvious to predict, if you buy your girlfriend a new scale, you can predict that you will be sleeping on the couch. Other things might not be so obvious but you can still predict them.

On Election Day I knew I was going to be sick to my stomach, without a doubt. June 14th in a post on facebook I wrote that Trump would definitely win the election and why. Although June was Trump's lowest point in the polls, even Politico wrote an article called "Trump's poll ratings in a historic hole". I was so sure that I placed my "expert marketing opinion" at risk to be proven right or wrong. I had to do it because all to often "experts" defend that advertising and marketing is too complex to understand the results of our efforts, which is very far from the truth.

You can predict that if it is 35oc/95of outside, the city's electricity consumption will be high, many people will go to the pool and on most beaches there will be that one poor guy that fell asleep and will regret it when he wakes up all sun burnt.

You can predict this because of all the "data" you have seen throughout your life. Predicting marketing efforts are really no different except they are not as obvious. Polls and focus groups that are traditionally used have consistently shown to be unreliable and outdated. Harvard in 2013 said, "time-honored measurement techniques—consumer surveys, focus groups, media-mix models, and last-click attribution—such outmoded methods have lulled many marketers into complacency. They mistakenly think they have a handle on how their advertising actually affects behavior and drives revenue."

"Dumb ways to die" campaign will be efficient but not effective, "Old Spice" will quick jump in sales but no increase in market share, Apple will start to lose sales, Super Bock will gain market share for green not original but will increase per litter profit. All these and many other predictions have also come true. This is not because of a magic wand or visits from a time traveler. It is because of something called predictive analytics and when you think of it, it is actually pretty easy.

Imagine you owned a soap company. HOW MUCH MORE SOAP DO YOU SELL IF IT IS ONE DEGREE HOTTER THIS MONTH THAN LAST MONTH?

You probably don't know the answer but you know how to figure it out if you wanted to. Historical temprature and sales mapped on a chart and maybe you will find a link in movement. Do that analysis for likes vs sales, comments vs market share, shares on shares vs price profit per sku, brand trust, brand sentiment, NPS, TOM, GRPs, Pricing, blah, blah, blah.... Do it for 800 different data points vs 8 hard KPIs and 8 soft KPIs over 3 years in 4 different countries like we did and you could predict what will happen in the future with a fair degree of certainty just like you could if it was 1oc hotter and you were selling soap.

The great news is, it won't require 3 universities and 3 years of your life to get answers any longer. IBM and many other companies can actually help anyone do it now.

IBM Watson's predictive analytics is advancing very quickly. Here they talk about how he can predict trends before they happen.

As management and marketers, we need to learn to make better decisions. Decisions that will truly impact your organisation financially and otherwise. To make better decisions requires making predictions. Right now the prediction a majority of the brand managers make is if my brand "screams" more than my competitor, I will get TOM (top of mind) which will increase sales. Problem is, that is not an accurate prediction. All over the market you will see brands that are top of mind but not leaders in sales. It is not a good decision because it is not an accurate prediction.

BRAND MANAGERS ARE AT A CROSS ROAD!

In the 1930s, when agencies went to speak to brands about TV ads, they were thrown out the office. TV was a fad they said and most brands had no interest. P&G, Unilever and Kraft were some of the first to use TV, and the brands that kept believing it was a fad, well, most of them aren't around anymore.

Brands that use predictive analytics to make decisions, will flourish. The brands that romance the idea of using focus group and instinct to make decisions will continue to see their market share disappear slowly as those that romanced the radio or like Kodak romanced the analog camera.

The secret to great decisions is great predictions. Don't take my word for it, try it. Make personal decisions based on the prediction instead. When you see how it improves your decisions, take it to your brand, start small, like 10% of your budget and try new strategies based on prediction with measurable objectives and you will surprise yourself.

"The secret to great decisions is great predictions."

About NYLON.

?www.nylongroup.com

We don't believe in telling stories, we believe you must become a story with telling. That story must be recognisable in the 100s of interaction customers have with your brand, not just a commercial or print ad.

To become a story worth telling, brands need to become like Gandhi, Mandela, and so on. They need a unique Point of View: Purpose | Originality | Values ?, a mix of emotional, functional and social benefits.

Helping brands achieve this is what gives us energy, especially on Monday morning.

(It is also why all our clients that follow P.O.V, have seen double-digit market share growth in the first year.)