Your job is (probably) safe from artificial intelligence

Hello from London,

I’ve just returned from a gathering in Dubai, where assembled journalists discussed our digital future and ways in which artificial intelligence may (or may not) disrupt our work. (Read our latest article on the same topic , to get a sense of what’s emerging.) Our industry is a small corner of the wider economy that may be affected by AI. But what, will that wider economic impact amount to?

The buzz about ChatGPT in recent months has been so intense, it’s been hard to take a clear view on the ways that “generative” AI will really change how economies function. My colleagues, who have stepped back and asked the difficult questions on this, offer some intriguing first conclusions about three broad areas of the economy. You can read their new article , which we have just published.

What is happening to defence spending in Europe, in the face of war in Ukraine and a growing threat from Russia? We have published an assessment of what the larger powers in Europe are up to—and whether the tough talk by some European leaders, and pledges to meet or exceed a NATO commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence, is being matched by deeds. You might think that Europe’s biggest countries would do most to boost their efforts. Think again.

On that note, let me flag again the forthcoming launch of a new newsletter for subscribers, The War Room , which will bring together our best defence and security coverage in one place. It’s where you will find our assessments of the war in Ukraine , but also articles on military matters in Taiwan , the Middle East and beyond.?

Trust in the stability of America’s regional or mid-sized banks remains in some doubt after the turmoil of the past couple of months. But what about the many small banks scattered across the country? Yesterday we published a look at America’s community banks. I had no idea there were so many banks in America: over 4,000, in contrast to just over 300 in Britain. For many people, it appears, local remains best .?

Our coverage of the forthcoming Turkish election has ruffled some feathers. Turks go to the polls on May 14th, in the first part of what is (most likely) a two-stage process. We have argued, in our latest cover story , that it would be better for the country if the current opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, triumphs over Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the incumbent. The rest of the world would benefit, too. Democracy needs strengthening in many places. If voters in Turkey show themselves ready to reject their strongman ruler, that would send a powerful message to other elected leaders with authoritarian tendencies. Read our full arguments from the recent issue.

Meanwhile, Mr Kilicdaroglu wrote a By Invitation guest essay for us . To be clear about our fairness: we also invited senior figures from Mr Erdogan’s government to write for us. We were poised to publish an essay by the foreign minister, but then he withdrew it after reading our cover story. (However, Mr Erdogan did write for us, about NATO , a year ago.)

Why are the world’s seas warming so fast? We have a new chart, tracking the rate of increase, and accompanying analysis that helps to set out what is under way. In short, as the water gets warmer, the effects will be felt ever more strongly on land, too.?

In Britain we have plenty to distract us. The coronation at the weekend was suitably full of pomp, ceremony and precision marching. I was most moved by the music. This week, however, brace for melodies of a different calibre as Liverpool hosts the Eurovision song contest (on behalf of Ukraine, last year’s winners). At the final I’d expect a lot of sympathy votes, again, for the Ukrainian entry. But the bookmakers suggest that Sweden may be triumphant. Swedes may not be allowed (just yet) to join NATO, but they could win over their European neighbours in music instead.

As ever, many thanks for your messages. Alexey Sidoruk, from Prigorodnyi, in Russia, observes that those who remain in his country but oppose the invasion of Ukraine must deal with “double jeopardy”. He means the “repressive government” at home, but also criticisms from “those outside who are quick to judge” ordinary Russians, condemning them for doing too little to stop the aggression. By Alexey’s estimate, one-fifth of Russians openly oppose the war, “and despite growing pressure and repression, we are clinging to our values and the truth”. It’s a fair reminder, Alexey. Helen Atteck, from Ontario, Canada, chides me for my lack of enthusiasm for swearing allegiance to a king. She also credits the royal family as a unifying force in Britain and beyond. Perhaps it is, Helen, but I’ll note that embarrassed officials quietly—and sensibly—dropped the bit about the public voicing their fealty on the eve of the coronation.

Please continue to write to us at [email protected] . And you’re welcome to follow me on Twitter .

Adam Roberts, digital editor

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For decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall Europeans spoke of their peace dividend, a welcome freeing up of money no longer needed for defence and available for more pleasant and productive uses. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, all that has supposedly changed. Yet in the 14 months since then, the picture across the continent when it comes to actually putting money where mouths are is a patchy one. Overall, European defence spending, according to SIPRIi, a think-tank, went up by an impressive-sounding 13% last year; but around two-thirds of that was eaten up by inflation, and the number also included Russia and Ukraine.

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