Your gas tank is a pain in the...wallet

Happy Fathers Day “I believe that what we become depends on what our fathers teach us at odd moments, when they aren't trying to teach us. We are formed by little scraps of wisdom.” ―?Umberto Eco,?

The markets this week

Three issues are at play, how high will interest rates go? Will there be a recession? And is this going to take years to recover from? Last week the US raised their interest rates by .75%. The last time such an increase hit the markets was 1994 and back then, coincidentally the stock market rebounded by 37% that year! There are still those who believe that they S&P 500 will recover to 4,800 by year end 2022 or early 2023. On the other hand individual investors who have been riding the frenzy with meme stocks and crypto are exiting and heading for cover, for most, with what little money they have left. Two things that are going to determine the markets next move. What will second quarter earnings look like? And are we bringing down inflation? Stable earnings and a drop with inflation is a very much needed news story for both investors and consumers.

Should we be concerned? We should be. The world is either already feeling the challenges of the war and inflation or they are anxious over it. With the exception of the super wealthy the world is on hold, as what was a few months ago thought to be a healthy economy is now slowing down.

Surviving a recession with negative growth

There are a lot of lessons in surviving a number of calamities in business, especially in what we are potentially looking at by way of our own current economic situation. If you can believe the everyday rhetoric, we can be looking at anything from a soft landing to a recession with stagflation. There are others who will bluntly tell you that if there are no job and business losses there will be no recovery. There is no telling with certainty which storm will arrive. However what is certain is businesses need to survive. That should be the number one objective of every business leader and employee. So how can that be achieved? The school of business that I come from say's that you never stop selling! That means you never stop marketing, spending effectively in the right ways and channels to reach existing and new customers. The mistakes of past inflationary periods by businesses is that they spent less on marketing and created few new innovations by way of offerings. And guess what happened? Those that waited for the storm to pass failed.

The four C's to landing a job in any climate

If you are worried about work and your career in a recession. The best thing people in these situations can do is polish their resume, take additional courses in areas that would benefit your resume and during interviews don't be shy tell them what you can do. The four C's to landing a job in tough times. Credentials, Confidence, Convincing and Curiosity.

Credentials: Your work history demonstrate your path that leads to the position you want. Confidence: Everyone has a little bit of anxiety in job interviews. Showing your confidence isn't hard. Talk to interviewers and recruiters as though you are talking to friends about your accomplishments. Convincing: Tell your story why are you the right person? How does you experience fit with the role you want what have you done that makes you the best and most qualified. Curiosity: Be interested in the company, do your home work, what do you like about it? How do you fit culturally and what else do you want to know about them? But make it relevant to the job and the industry.

Economy: That pain in your wallet

There are three things that are impacting the ability of many consumers who are having a hard time making ends meet. By the way depending on what sites you get your information from, that percentage of consumers can be anywhere from 45-60% but on average it is the same number in the US and Canada. So what are those three things? Well the first pain in your wallet is the price of energy and in this case oil and gasoline prices are hefty to the impact of consumers. There are predictions of $130- $150 a barrel and the belief that consumers can handle that at the gas pumps. My first reaction after reading that was what planet does this person live on? read more. Quite frankly, your gas tank is changing your life! It is changing the lives of many but the reality is that we have no choice but to absorb it so that we can get to work and buy groceries. Speaking of food the second impact on consumers has been the cost of producing food which has gone up and quite inexplicably it remains high even as things have gotten back to some normal from a health and productivity perspective. Sure the cost of shipping has increased because of oil but we are also being faced with shrinking packages which means we will continue to pay more for less. The third is supply chains, even though the US is going after ocean faring shippers of containers they really can't do anything to change the cost of shipping. So we will continue to paying these prices into the foreseeable future. Is there a break? It is likely by this time in 2023 we will be hearing that inflation has been tamed to some reasonable level. The translation to that really is that prices are higher than 2021 just not growing as fast as they were. Simply we will be living and trying to adjust to today's higher prices plus an annual 2-3% jump. Oil will remain a painful reminder in our wallets and it will mean that other things will get cut back so that we can do the essential things in our lives.

Retail: 7 Traits of the last retailers standing

Who wants to be the last retailer standing? Everyone does without question. Getting there isn't as simple as a magical incantation or listening to outlandish ideas. It is about culture, talent, strategy and operational execution surrounding the things you want to be great at. So, what are the traits? Surprisingly to some, these traits centre around people and how they are able to influence change.

1. Building the right consumer model. They are continuously looking to add value to their customer's lives. The brand story that is being lived internally by employees and suppliers, and externally by customers and shareholders, is what becomes enduring if it is the adding value and creates heart and mind felt connections. Developing that consumer model requires vision and purpose, that too is no small feat.
2. The S-Factor: So much of retailing is about the customer's journey and what they like and find attractive about it. Be it in product or service the retailer is always looking for that edge. However service in itself is an art and it requires a great deal of planning and execution. In the book Last Retailer Standing (Chapter 16) there are four elements that lead to Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty. They are Staff Training, Store Experience, Store Sales Tools and Service Standards. These four combined can deliver Sustainable Growth.
3. Leading Change. Chart the course. Every brand needs a plan and that plan requires the ability to identify and pursue opportunities that will delight their customers, encourage their employees and inspire management to keep building the brand. The level of leadership required to ensure success of any brand comes with a significant amount of leadership commitment to achieve objectives and continuously look for opportunities that they can leverage for their brand. That also means to challenge one another and build on one another's ideas.
4. Competitive endurance: Ability to adapt to changes in their external and internal environment and category. In addition to adopting technology or innovation fast enough and ahead of their peers. They spend a great deal of time building and developing a brand that can survive the tests and threats of time. In many ways to become very proactive in their strategic thinking and planning.
5. Talent and engaging employees. Many organizations forget that your employees have emotionally quit before your customers ever do. But when employees do quit customers are not far behind. Too often I've seen organizations lose sight of their culture and settle into command and control management which often alienates everyone.
6. Digital mastery. Staying connected with your business and customers. It goes without saying the retailers that withstand the test of time will be the leaders who embrace technology to levels where it is an extension of their management skills. And as mentioned in the past Data and Supply Chains are king makers in retailing. However not without the right technology investments.
7. ESG: Social and environmental responsibility. Many of us were talking about ESG before it was called that. However, companies that have a purpose must always demonstrate that they are focused on improving the outcome for society in both their own favour as a company and the consumers who follow them today, and will be loyal in the future.

At the end of the day these traits are not new, they exist in all organizations to some degree. The difference is when an organization can be great in all of them and make a difference internally and externally. And that is rare.

Personal Log:

Social, Environment & Politics: The right political leadership is the key to everything

Is the world a mess? One could see it that way, consider the current heat waves read more or forest fires read this. Blame nature or mismanagement of the planet. And of course civil unrest because of a building global economic crisis article 1 article 2. The war between Russia and the Ukraine is also an on going alarming situation in addition to the oil supply impact and the risks to food supplies, not being able to get grains and fertilizer to countries that need it. We are living all of this and more in real time in this lifetime because information flows so quickly to generally everyone.

With all the complexities industries, businesses and the public are and will be facing, we all need leadership that has a vision of the future. That's not just from presidents, prime ministers, governors or premiers. I mean all leaders even at the municipal level. The world needs to know where this is all heading and while alarmists want you to panic and pay for their services of supposed solutions. Most have nothing by way of solutions except for blame. We need leaders that have the courage to embrace the future and I don't mean repackaging the past as a new future that will only lead us back to this place. The world needs to be rethought. Our economic problems are more complex and we are using aged policies that hurt more than they cure. In fact they are not inclusive at all.

As I mentioned to a couple of politicians and bureaucrats about a year ago, "The world has changed, it is no longer good enough to just acknowledge a problem and send those concerned to find solutions on their own. Leaders must own the major issues if they are really leading and guide the public on others." We cannot afford a turbulent economy coupled with social unrest, governments need to be wiser. That's why not all those running for political leadership roles have the right DNA and temperament to make a difference. We don't need more life politicians we need leaders.

Thank you for reading this weeks issue of "The Business Brief"

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