Your Excellency, Mr. Cyril Ramaphosa

Your Excellency, Mr. Cyril Ramaphosa

South Africa - already 2nd largest exporter to Sub-Saharan Africa after China with a share of 6.54% of total sub-Saharan Africa imports in 2017 - World bank - should now work hard to be #1 based on its proximity and increase its share by 50% or more to 9.81%+ to drive growth locally, and escape recession!

China purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 35.7 in February 2020 from 50 cut off number in January 2020, signalling that its manufacturing sector is in recession! In November 2008, its PMI dropped 3.1 points higher suggesting that coronavirus is having a greater impact on the Chinese manufacturing sector than the 2008 financial crisis!

Already China exports fell about one sixth (17.2%) in January and February combined - State's report. South Africa can step in now as a viable alternative in Sub-saharan Africa!

This is achievable if construction and food manufacturing companies are given improved supports. Maybe South Africa embassy trade division should create stakeholders value including their local construction and food manufacturing firms with a strong propensity to export goods and or services! In other words, South Africa should turn their embassy into economic think tanks: local businesses in South Africa as their primary audience! Being supplied with relevant information will make a different to Chinese "cheap" credits!

Moreover, on average only between 10-15% of roads are tarred in subsaharan Africa - South Africa government can facilitate a deal with those Africa 20 rich in minerals/natural ressources nations on behalf of their construction companies! South african workers should be deployed across Africa similar to Chinese workers to raise competition level!

As regards food manufacturing, there is a food market of $1trillion in Africa with 1.3 billion individuals - will be 2.3 billion in 2050 and 4.3 billion in 2100 (40% of world population)!

Locally, what South Africa needs most is increased competition in the manufacturing sector by significantly increasing electricity supply [1] Your decision to open this sector to private sector competition is bold and welcome! Eskom's share overtime should be reduced from 90% to up to 50% to render this sector more efficient!

The second most important policy is to increase research expenditures as a % of GDP from 0.82% to 1%+ [2] while focusing on STEM to - both - unleash the potential of the private sector as few ressources will be misallocated, and, increase significantly the number of new job created within a year via innovation!

Government wage bill should be further reduced to trim the size of the state - this is good economics (Rand 160 billion is a good step in the right direction) and infrastructure investments increased while focusing on reducing traffic congestion on relevant roads and airport [3] - the cost to the South africa economy is significant!

Increase competition among home builders to drive property prices down while maintaining quality by issuing more licences to, minerals and ressources exploitation companies [4], which want to enter the sector! They might want to diversify to reduce exposure to the coronavirus effects on their sector of activity!

Accelerate land redistribution which will allow a majority of blacks access to loan by using their properties as collaterals [5] - good for scalling up businesses! 10% has been redistributed, 20% more to go - as per ANC manifesto

[6] Introduce coding as an official language and within 2 years all primary and secondary school students should be able to code, relying on an army of STEM graduate volunteers, and compulsory 1 hour training every Saturday for all - for 18 months! This is economically rewarding and promote entrepreneurship!

[7] Promote government integrity by punishing corruption using heavy fines.

Sincerely,

Hugue Nkoutchou, PhD(Bath)

Founder at PPiAI

Political and economic commentator at BBC Africa

+237 650925031

LinkedIn: https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/hugue-nkoutchou-phd-bath-537b07166