If you think about it, this is the bit that actually does make sense...
Nigel Gordon-Stewart FRSA FCIM
Board advisor at Everrati. Experienced NED/NE Chairman. EV and premium automotive market specialist. Ex-Automobili Lamborghini, McLaren, Group Lotus at senior Board level.
For the last few months I've been wandering around asking colleagues from the automotive industry (not journalists, I hasten to add, who have another agenda) where all this is going.
The transition away from the automotive use of the internal combustion engine is one that's being encouraged by weather, air quality (in cities mainly) and the environmental lobby. Meanwhile, it's also become a significant part of the global political agenda and is therefore being forced through by legislation. Around 11% of global CO2 emissions come from road transport, of which about half of that is from cars. Regardless of whether you think that's significant or not, as part of a global climbdown from the levels of CO2 we're almost carelessly belching into the atmosphere (and in turn creating a 'greenhouse' type of effect which is warming oceans, making our weather rather turbulent and affecting all kinds of global eco-systems), overall, it's a good thing. There are, of course, many other producers of greenhouse gasses, but the automotive industry is quite a soft target for politicians and should, in theory therefore, be an easy quick win.
Or so some might think.
But the problem is that the automobile (car) is so deeply ingrained in 20th Century culture and across almost all forms of popular culture, that making significant changes to that, relatively, small part of the CO2 problem is creating huge instability in a signifcant global industry.
I remember when I was working for Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A. , our main shareholder was a holding company owned by the son of the President of Indonesia. One of his key objectives from the ownership of Lamborghini was to create a large scale automotive manufacturing business in Indonesia. He hoped that Lamborghini would be the technology transfer 'halo' from which his engineering and design for an Indonesian car could come from. To him, having seen what had been achieved in neighbouring Malaysia, he understood that indiginous automotive manufacturing was a key economic indicator of the status of a Country in the world order.
So, the whole automotive industry is now in a dangerous state of flux and most senior OEM CEOs would admit it. Is BEV the right solution for the future? Is Solid State technology close enough to make a real difference and is it real anyway? Where is hydrogen in all this, especially if we're able to capture all the carbon from its production ('The Milliband Theory') and bury it? And then, of course, you need to add the views of the real influencers such as Jeremy Clarkson et al, who just see the BEV as the Devil's work and who can't seem to let those little explosions go.
What's really amplified this situation for me is the recent release of both the RedBull RB17 and the McLaren W1. At the same time both the Aston Martin Valkyrie and the GMA T50 seem to be hitting their production strides. This is swan-song Intake-Compression-Power-Exhaust stuff at the very top of the tree. There's a Bugatti Tourbillion in there somewhere as well, all revving their little Cosworth engines to high heaven, but with at least some hybrid batteries as a power boost.
This is all hot on the heels of my visit to Group Lotus and the opportuinity I had to see the Lotus Evija. Shunning the option of also taking one of the Cosworth 'Vs' (8, 10, 12 etc.), Lotus went for the performance EV solution and created something equally extraordinary. A real 'halo' car for the electric hypercar sector from a brand who seriously know their engineering and technology. Don't get me wrong, as someone who's spent most of his life knee-deep in super and hypercars, these are all the products of wonderful unmentionable dreams. But I'm looking at an industry in abject confused disarray right now, with consumers clueless and almost tribal about EVs versus ICE cars and all the while hearing constant contradictory information coming from politicians, influencers, OEMs and specialist manufacturers. Look at the recent comments from Mate Rimac and Horacio Pagani for example.
As I understand it, the Labour Party is going to be true to their election pledge and reinstate the 2030 ban on new ICE car sales, although they won't include vans in this so LCVs and CDVs will remain in the 2035 banning. I know lots of industry people who believe both the UK and the rest of the EU will 'have to' change these dates and push back the banning of new ICE cars, but is that just wishful thinking?
And so to the point of my musings...
I saw the Hemmels Pagoda a few months ago. It's what they call 'Neugeboren' or new born and is like 'ordering a brand new classic Mercedes from the factory'. This is an ICE car and Hemmels have sensibly made some really well-executed changes to make it more drivable and to give it some features you'd really expect of a 21st Century car. Dating from before the EU nanny state introduced many safety requirements on new car homologation, the design of the Mercedes SL Pagoda is now timeless and utterly beautiful. In post 2030 UK, this is a new car but not a new car, and therefore perfectly eligible to be sold. Equally, through their association with specialist technology developers Everrati , they are able to offer the new born Pagoda with a fully electric drive train. The Everrati Pagoda is deep into restomod territory at this point, but both offer true individuality of automotive expression, something that new EVs are struggling to achieve.
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This got me thinking about the whole restomod movement and its rapid rise in the market. Provided the chassis hasn't been completely replaced, the DVLA would see this as a classic car restoration and therefore an 'almost new' car would still be available under the new ICE rules.
New supercars and hypercars after 2030 will, I assume, suffer the same fate as any new internal combustion engine manufacturer and the much coveted ICE screaming exhaust note will be for used examples only. I have heard of a theory of bulk-buying and registering, then placing in storage only to release the cars over future years to beat the ban. I also have a feeling some of the specialist manufacturers may lobby aggressively to exclusively use synthetic fuels on new cars in the hope that a significant reduction to CO2 output, based on being a low-volume manufacturer, may provide an exemption ticket. The high price of synthetic-fuels will be less of a deterent to exotic car buyers whose annual mileage is next to nothing, provided they can access distribution.
There are around 40 million cars on the road in the UK at the moment. About 41 million if you add EVs. Whatever the fuel retailers are planning regarding their networks over the coming 20 or so years, you'd have to assume that demand is going to dwindle rather than plummet so the fuels to support ICE cars will still be there even if they can't be sold new.
So, if the specialist OEMs, still committed to chasing volume but now seemingly hamstrung by the ICE banning regulations, go exclusively down the EV route, what's the result? The issue is culture change and the perception of 'what makes a super car?' I only know of one journalist who's sat in a room within an automotive manufacturer, debating into the small hours that very question with the knowledge that a bad decision could kill the business. It's tough in this business to second guess the market and make predictions which ultimately involve huge Capex investment with no guarantees. It's tightrope walking with no net at the best of times and you can add wind and rain and complete darkness to that analogy at the worst. These decisions and the reasons for them are best therefore in the hands of those who genuinely 'feel' the industry.
Lotus have packaged pure and extreme EV performance in the Evija. The extraordinary and completely unique carbon chassis bringing lightweight to a drivetrain which is, by virtue of the power itself weighing nothing, heavier than an ICE package. Colin Chapman himself saw the potential of EV way back in the 70s and the simple efficiency of the power delivery. Weight was always the enemy, but the Evija deals with that by putting it where you'd want it anyway which is the beauty of EV, the weight stays the same even after you've used all the energy. Chapman also noted the relative simplicity of the EV powertrain in comparison to combustion engines. Fewer components, different mechanical set-up, less energy loss through heat etc. But don't be mistaken that an EV engine is less complex to deliver. The drivability aspect of EVs is where the challenge is. Placing the weight in the right location, torque delivery, smoothness and endless software parameters for how this immensely powerful unit behaves and creating an analogue experience in a digital masterpiece. So, EV hypercars can have all the performance attributes of their ICE predecessors and more but just not the noise or the heat build-up and you can fuel them at home, which is very cool in my opinion.
The alternative is the ICE or EV restomod sector and the choices are increasing. This is the only ICE product sector that will allow complete petrolheads to continue to buy (almost) new cars after 2030 in the UK and 2035 in the EU. And their uniqueness and insanely low volumes is their distinctiveness. If you ever see a Hemmels 190 SL Gullwing 'Fehlendes Glied' or an Everrati Pagoda, or an Alfa Guilia GT, an RML Short Wheelbase or the TWR Supercat, you'll be seeing something very special and very valuable indeed.
Supercars are about rarity, utter exclusivity, performance, individuality and presence. That's what makes a supercar. If you made 6,000 copies of the Mona Lisa every year and then announced you wanted to make 8,000 next year, it wouldn't be quite so special. This new ultra-exclusive sector of perfect restomods, built to perfection with an attention to detail that would make George Daniels gasp, are set to literally stand the test of time and provide the only reliable solution for those who insist on petrol power. So, this ultra-niche actually does make great sense in this very confusing, transitional time.
If you want to buy a supercar right now, buy an Evija hypercar from Lotus. They've made the best one out there and it won't be surpassed for a very long time. If you want to burn fuel, buy a restomod and revel in the fact that your first owners' meeting event will be a very quiet and personal experience.