Are you searching for a true alternative to your spreadsheet-based forecast model?

Most forecast managers in the BioPharma industry rely on complicated, time intensive and not very transparent forecast models that are unable to model complex relationships, especially feedback loops. Despite the inadequacy of such models built in spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel, most forecast managers still rely exclusively on spreadsheet software for building and maintaining their forecast models.

Life Code GmbH and Schramm Unternehmensberatung GmbH have generated a forecast tool that delivers robust forecasts in volatile markets. The Dynamic Forecast Model (DFM) combines the advantages of different forecast methods within a holistic, flexible and transparent forecast instrument. The contents include determination of the patient potential on the basis of indication specific patient flow models, integrated uptake curves (Bass Model) to estimate the market penetration of pipeline products, different methods for estimating future market shares of product and competitor product, as well as forecasting of cash flow and net present value (NPV). In addition the dynamic forecast model give the possibility to simulate alternative “what if” scenarios, to look at different evolutions of the market and to test strategic options.

At the same time the Dynamic Forecast Model  is so flexible that it can be easily adapted to different forecasting requirements, according to the principle “as simple as possible and as complex as necessary”.

The foundation of the Dynamic Forecast Model is the System Dynamics simulation method developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). This method has been successfully tested in practice and is especially suited to model complex and dynamic relationships, taking into account interactions such as feedback loops and time delays.

If you would like to learn how to implement the Dynamic Forecast Model for your BioPharma product forecast please contact either

Klaus Schramm

Schramm Unternehmensberatung GmbH

 +49 7161 6 56 31 30

[email protected] 

www.schramm-beratung.de

         or

Dr. Robert Siegmund

Life Code GmbH

Mobile: +41 79 414 67 90

[email protected]

www.lifecode.ch