Are Schools Ready for the Perfect Storm- No Teachers?

K-12 Education in America is facing its largest crisis yet - a massive teacher shortage.  Over the past three years teacher vacancies have skyrocketed from 5,000 in 2013 to over 30,000 for the 2016-17 school year. Unfortunately, there is no slowdown in sight. Recent studies forecast that the shortage could reach over 60,000 by 2020 with 30,000 vacancies in California alone.   

There are three factors that have contributed to the teacher shortage crisis: 

1. Baby Boomer Generation:  The Baby Boomer generation makes up 65% of the current teacher work force, and the youngest members have already earned the ability to collect full pension with healthcare at 52 years of age. This has encouraged thousands of teachers to retire across the country.  Districts have relied on this group of teachers for more than 25 years to educate their students and do not have a plan in place to replace them when they retire. Districts are increasing pay and essentially begging these teachers to stay on while they figure out how to replace them.  However, most districts are forced to replace retiring educators with a long term sub (i.e. a baby sitter for months or years on end) effectively reducing the instructional time to almost zero for their students.  (Huff Post Jun 02, 2015, How Baby Boomers Who Don’t Retire Are Affecting Education and the Economy)      
2. Teacher Surplus:  10 years ago schools of education were pumping out record numbers of new teachers, only to find out that school districts were fully staffed. As a result, thousands of teachers were forced to pursue or accept a position in a different field. This caused a severe drop in student enrollment in teacher education programs, which is now culminating to the lowest number of teachers graduating in almost 9 years. (NCES 2015-144)
3. Demoralization of Teachers:   As a society we have consistently shown a lack of value for K-12 teachers.  Nothing shows this more clearly then the average starting salary for a K-12 educator, which averages within all 50 states at $36,000 annually. (source: NEA Collective Bargaining/Member Advocacy’s Teacher Salary Database) Additionally, over the past 5 years there has been an anti-teacher sentiment through movies as well as public views, such as "Waiting for Superman", lack of support from Congress, and the reduction of education funding in many of the lowest performing states.  Studies show that nearly 1/4 of all teachers leave the classroom within the first 4 years.  (Hare & Heap, 2001a)

What is the educational cost of no teacher?

• 30 Days - If there is a substitute in a classroom for 30 days, 35% of students will typically fall behind in the given subject, fail state testing or will be forced to repeat the class.
• 60 Days - If there is a substitute in a classroom for 60 days, 75% of the students will typically fall behind in the given subject, fail state testing or will be forced to repeat the class.  

America needs to wake up and begin establishing a plan to combat our teacher shortage crisis.  There are currently more than 8 million teachers unemployed by a school district who are willing to work.  Many of these teachers are mothers home on maternity leave, recent retires, and teachers in alternative jobs that we can bring back into the fold.  

Schools and districts should look to embrace the technology they have invested in. One such promising program is Virtual K-12 Staffing where teachers can live anywhere in the country while being live streamed into the classroom during the school day. These teachers adopt the district's curriculum, bell schedule, and grading policy. More than 150 school districts have begun adopting this program including Greenville PS in Mississippi, Stockton USD in California, Irving ISD in Texas, and Petersburg CPS in Virginia. 

We are currently at a crossroads in America. With proper knowledge and alternative options, our schools and districts will have the resources needed to  begin developing and implementing long term plans, ensuring that the teacher shortage will soon become a problem of the past.  

Evan Erdberg