Are you ready for Maintenance 4.0?

Predictive Maintenance, IIOT, Maintenance 4.0 are phrases that have been thrown around a lot in recent years. Predictive maintenance is especially popular lately.

And it bugs me. Big time.

I've worked in the upstream Oil & Gas sector for most of my career and have been close to advanced condition-based maintenance methodologies. I've seen the value and I've experienced the shortcomings.

As far as I can see most 'predictive' maintenance solutions that are sold or marketed today are nothing more than more complex, more advanced condition assessments combining multiple measurements and operating parameters indicating that a deterioration in condition has commenced and that failure will occur.

For sure with more advanced technology, more sensors, and more complex models - may be even with 'Artificial Intelligence' - we have moved to the left on the P-F curve. 

But is that really predictive?

Or is that condition-based?

And does it even matter?

The value that condition-based maintenance brings us, is the value of being prepared for a functional failure and avoiding (potential) consequential damage.

The value of avoiding consequential damage is pretty obvious. Less damage with less costs could easily justify early intervention.

And for complex, capital intensive plants being prepared for a functional failure can be very valuable indeed. If you can reduce equipment downtime from days or weeks to just hours you could be avoiding millions of dollars in lost revenue.

But, you only realise that benefit, if you can act effectively on those early indicators you get from your condition-based or predictive maintenance programs

And unfortunately, a lot of organisations get that wrong.

How many organisations run a condition-based maintenance program and then still find themselves having to scramble together a repair for a failure that had been identified through their CBM program weeks or even months before?

Do you think that a fancy 'predictive maintenance' solution will fix that?

Keep dreaming.

Or what about those organisations that are looking to buy a predictive maintenance solution to monitor bearing performance, but somehow can't be convinced to train their technicians in precision maintenance practices when installing those bearings in the first place?

Don't get me wrong: I believe in technology.

And I believe in a future with predictive maintenance and artificial intelligence.

But I don't believe most of us are ready for this future.

Instead, I believe that for most organisations there is more value to be gained by really implementing basic practices like implementing a good lubrication program.

You've got that covered?

Well, maybe it’s time to move to Defect Elimination?

Done? 

How about you look at ensuring your maintenance crews are skilled in precision maintenance practices.

Tick?

Excellent - have you optimised your PM program and you really understand your failure modes?

No more time-based PM's for random failures?

Adopted effective risk-based practices for your static equipment, pressure relief valves and instrumented functions?

Also done?

Well congratulations, maybe you are indeed ready for Predictive Maintenance…

But if you are like 98% of organisations out there and haven’t got those basic maintenance practices in place, and you haven’t already started building a culture of reliability involving Operations, Maintenance and Engineering then maybe just wait with buying yourself a piece of Maintenance 4.0?