You Need To Plan For 2+ Years Of Social Distancing Now

Way back in March I published an article here about how I saw various companies managing the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. It seems almost comic now when I look back at the view we all had a few weeks ago - at that time President Trump was telling people that we could get back to normal by Easter.

The message that I was sending back then was around how to survive 2020, how to regroup, and then how to rebuild for the future. Economists have been talking about a V-shaped recovery, though some mention a U-shape. Either way, there is an expectation from economists and politicians that we are going to take a hit, then get back to business as usual.

Except that's not really going to happen is it?

Yesterday, the journal Science published a paper authored by several Harvard epidemiologists and immunologists. In short, exactly the people that the business community should be listening to before the politicians (of any party I would add, no single party has a monopoly on bad advice or leadership here). The paper claims that intermittent social distancing will need to persist until at least 2022 if we are to avoid further waves where the virus kills a significant number of the population.

Take a look at what Professor Peter Hotez of Texas Children's Hospital published on his Twitter account a few days ago:

Just like the Harvard paper, Professor Hotez is reminding us that we do not have a vaccine for COVID-19. We can all use social distancing to reduce the spread of the virus, and even reduce it to a minimal number of cases, but as soon as we return to normal the cases will soar once again. Look at his comment - the world record for a virus vaccine is 4-5 years and is usually more like 10-25 years. Admittedly governments and researchers are throwing everything they can at research into this vaccine, but it seems realistic to expect that the Harvard prediction of social distancing into 2022 may be accurate and prescient.

"We need to begin shaping a national strategy for the next 2-3 years"

- Professor Peter Hotez

So business leaders globally need to rethink how their business can survive this immediate period of lockdown, where many companies have been forced to close temporarily, but then to consider how their business can function if social distancing is still in place two years from now. This will not all be over in a few months. The world has changed.

It may be great news for some industries. E-commerce will explode if visiting stores is going to require waiting in line just to get into the store. Likewise, any online services, such as gaming and streaming entertainment, will do well as people are forced to be less social.

But what about the global music industry - how can they plan gigs? How can sports teams bring together thousands of fans in a single stadium? How will the Olympic Games realistically take place in 2021 if there is still no vaccine for COVID-19? Will restaurants need to reopen with their tables spaced far apart? Will pubs and bars only ever use plastic glasses from now on? Will WeWork need to completely change the occupancy numbers for their offices because each office-based employee requires 16 square metres to be safe?

The really important point here is that a forced change in consumer behaviour for a period of two years or more is likely to become permanent. If we stop shopping at stores because they are now inconvenient to use, then that will be accepted consumer behaviour by 2022.

...a forced change in consumer behaviour for a period of two years or more is likely to become permanent.

Professionals who were suddenly forced to work from home may need to start buying desks and office chairs - you may not be back in the office for a long time - if at all. Companies that have suddenly sent thousands of workers home now need to invest in learning systems and management training - working from home requires an entirely new workplace culture. A recent FT article talked about managers who still insist on daily "progress reports" from their team because that's what they used to do in the office.

Companies that already had a work from home culture are likely to see a booming market ahead because they are already well-placed to succeed in markets where all their competitors have been disrupted. Streaming content services, gaming, and e-commerce will all see an uplift in business that I believe will become permanent as consumers change habits.

The real question for companies across all industries now is not how to survive the next month or two of lockdown, it's how to survive in a world where social distancing is enforced for the next few years. Until we get a COVID-19 vaccine life is not going to be normal.

Photo by Marco Verch licensed under Creative Commons