You Will Lose

Nobody can predict the future.

Anyone who says, after the fact, that they knew what was going to happen is either lying or disillusioned.

The world is too chaotic, too random, and too complicated to ever know for certain. That’s why it’s so important to seek out asymmetric risk—the kind that maximizes potential gain and minimizes potential loss.

I’ll start with a Captain Obvious statement: To be successful over many years, you have to build a business that survives over those years.

When you look at it through this lens, you see why you should never make a decision that could take you out of the game if it goes the wrong way.

It’s simply not worth it.

You can come up with any number of ways to create a viable product and sell it to a small customer base without investing a lot of capital. Save your biggest investments for proven ideas.

This also applies to investments in yourself.

Most people who spend a lot of money on a business coach are making a bad decision. It’s not because the business coach is bad at his job, but because the people making the investment either a) don’t have the financial resources to assume the risk, or b) haven’t yet defined what they hope to achieve.

If you don’t know where you’re going, you have no idea if you’re hiring the right person, or if that person is taking you in the right direction.

Never invest all your money, not to mention your hopes and dreams, with no guarantee of a return or refund. And never ever go deep into debt for that kind of deal.

If you’re going to be in the game, you owe it to yourself to stay in the game. Never bet all your chips on a single roll of the dice.