If You Don’t Want Munich, Avoid Versailles

It's time for a small history lesson.

People who don't want to stop the war in Ukraine short of an absolute defeat for Russia often say, "No more Munich’s!" This means no appeasement of evil dictators, as UK Prime Minister Chamberlain tried to make a deal with Adolph Hitler in 1938. And emotionally, I agree. If you give a finger to a bad guy, you often lose an arm.

However, Munich was prompted by the Versailles Peace Treaty twenty years earlier. In this treaty, Germany was politically and economically humiliated for starting World War I. Yes, Germany had done that, but countries back then started wars all the time and weren't penalized for them, at least not to that extent, so they felt severely wronged.

Therefore, the Treaty of Versailles created a culture of hate, resentment, and lust for revenge in Germany that Hitler, in 1933, could use to grab power - and start World War II six years later.

Now, there are many differences between Germany in the early 20th century and today's Russia, but there are also similarities. One of them is that the populations are similarly blinded by hyperbolic forms of nationalism that convince millions that dying for your land's honor is more important than living in peace and prosperity.

Thus, if the West humiliates Russia by refusing to accept some win-some-lose-some peace deal in Ukraine, Putin will almost certainly, in a not-too-distant future, look mild compared to whoever then will rule the Kremlin. And given that Russia owns 4500 nuclear warheads, that would not be a good thing, not at all.

So, to avoid more Munich, we need to prevent another Versailles. That will surely take some deep breaths and unpleasant moves, but it will be better than the probable alternative...