You Do the Math
Dear colleagues,
In recent years, labor market data have been woefully lacking in adequately describing the true state of the country’s employment. A recent conversation I had with friends in Maine at an annual fishing gathering led me to conclude that I am not alone in being unable to square the circle between the strong headlines and the anemic reality for far too many in and out of the workforce. Perhaps it’s best that you do the math with me and draw your own conclusions as this summer draws to a close.
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/08/you-do-the-math.html
Best,
Danielle
As is tradition, below you will see my prior work in chronological order:
The Great Abdication
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/06/something-new-at-the-liscio-report.html
The Sin of Commission
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/06/the-sin-of-commission.html
Rational Exuberance?
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/rational-exuberance.html
The Smell of Dry Powder in the Morning
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/-the-smell-of-dry-powder-in-the-morning.html
What if Charlie Munger is Right?
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/what-if-charlie-munger-is-right.html
The Seven Dollar Cantaloupe
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/the-seven-dollar-cantaloupe.html
Ladies Don’t Dance on Graves
https://tlrii.typepad.com/theliscioreport/2015/07/ladies-dont-dance-on-graves.html
You’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Chief Market Strategist
The Liscio Report
(214) 952-5519
Technical Communication · Quantitative Analysis & Research · Teaching
9 年I've often wondered the same thing. I wonder if the birth-death model isn't the main culprit. It's the way that medium- and small-size business employment is acounted for, and that's where most net jobs growth is. If that model is faulty, then the errors will propagate forward to everything else downstream. (It's Camp Kotok, no? Sounds fun.)
Lead Analyst at HousingWire
9 年1.LPR are roughly 81% for prime working age. However, males are getting hit harder and harder in every recession. Now we are construction light this cycle but also we had to add that males might be held back due to criminal records as well compared to women. Prime working age will start growing again and if we aren't in the new normal or secular stagnation then we need to see stronger growth and expansion when years 2020-2024 come into play when demographics get better here in the U.S.
★ Lead Analyst ★ President ? Rohr International, Inc. ? Capital Markets ? COMPLEMENTARY TRIALS ?
9 年Another excellent perspective. Thanks. And anyone who bothered could be keeping an eye on OECD Composite Leading Indicators https://bit.ly/1HBoqC3 or just considering why US Hourly Earnings have been mostly flat since early 2014 in spite of the alleged great jobs gains.