You cant have a 'Just' transition without a 'Circular' Transition

Today, the Just Transition Commission provided their final advice to Scottish Ministers on how Scotland can achieve a Just transition to Net Zero Society. It presents some fanstatic recommendations on the structural changes required to achieve this goal (examples include moving beyond GDP to prioritise wellbeing, developing a flexible, accessible skills and education system that can meet the needs of net-zero and applying the lessons learned from Scotland’s Climate Assembly amongst others).

Nonetheless, it is highly concerning that the report does not make a *single* mention of the importance of harnessing the Circular Economy for a Just Transition in Scotland. It is concerning for 3 reasons:

1. Firstly - the Circular Economy has been highlighted as a key economic and industrial strategy for a Green Recovery in Scotland. It should therefore be integrated accross all government Net Zero initiatives - including the Just Transition actions. The fact that it is not explicitly mentioned in the JTC report suggests early fragmentation between the Green Recovery economic strategy and the Just Transition Agenda.

2. Secondly - looking at the Just Transtion through the narrow lens of the energy transition only covers a small part of the wider transition required to meet Net Zero - in particular a sustainable consumption transition. Approximately 80% of Scotland's carbon footprint is linked to our consumption of material goods. We cannot therefore talk of a Just Transition in the narrow terms of an energy transition - we need to widen the conversation to encompass our material consumption transition which arguably has equal, if not greater, impacts on the Scottish labour force than the energy transition.

In particular, the technological changes associated with the circular economy transition may, in some circumstances, exacerbate wage inequality and displace workers and jobs and so needs to be considered equally alongside job loss risks in the Oil and Gas industry. Preparing to reskill and upskill a large number of the workforce for a Circular Economy (to meet the Net Zero target), particularly post-Covid-19 represents a major challenge.

The implementation of climate mitigation policies, circular economy business models and new technological innovation will affect employment in four areas:

1. Job creation: Circular economic activities will increase the demand for labour in some sectors (repair, reuse, remanufacturing, recycling as well as ICT and digitization).
2. Job substitution: Some employment opportunities will shift from companies, sectors and countries associated with linear extractive practices to those with circular business models.
3. Job elimination: Certain jobs will have no direct replacement, particularly for extractive industries (mining) and jobs threatened by automation or the development of a sharing economy.
4. Job transformation: Many existing jobs across multiple sectors will be transformed or redefined by the Circular Economy transition, requiring new skills and retraining of the workforce. For example, finance professionals must be upskilled to understand and invest in circular businesses and leaders across all industries and sectors must also be trained. These areas must be planned for in a net-zero circular just transition

3. Finally - Circular jobs in particular will help address key labour market stresses created through the Covid-19 pandemic - including unparallelled youth unemployment, rural reconomic decline and the need to reskill O&G workers. Zero Waste Scotland produced a widely distributed report on the Future of Work in Scotland. The report demosntrated the plethora of potential future proofed jobs that can be created across a wide range of sectors in Scotland and the central role of the circular economy in helping make Scotland's labour force more resilient to future labour challenges (automation, offshoring, decline of traditional carbon intensive industries).

The massive job creation potential for the circular economy (~43,000 jobs) has been recognised as a central pillar in the Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan 2021-2025 (Scotland's plan to create an education system geared towards Net Zero). The failure of the Just Transition Commission to acknowledge the role of the circular economy in Net Zero Skills and Education further demonstrates fragementation between the JTC and wider Net Zero initiatives.

To summarise - Scotland needs to widen its concept of a Just Transition to account for and plan for the ramifications of restructing our production-consumption systems across all economic sector to be circular and zero carbon. These ramifications are wide ranging and could potentially be much larger than those associated with the decline of the North Sea oil and gas industry. Failure to account for the circular economy means failure to achieve a Just Transition.

For more information on the role of the Circular Economy in delivering a Just Transition in Scotland - see Zero Waste Scotland's consultation response to the Just Transition Commission here. Chatham House have also produced an excellent report on a Just Circular Transition.