You can't hammer a nail over the Internet (South Park Edition).
Rich Heimann
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A recent South Park episode parodies The Walt Disney Company for their perceived practice of producing formulaic films. However, I'd like to discuss the subplot about Randy Marsh, who struggles to find someone to fix his oven door. He and his neighbors eventually discover that all the handymen in town have become wealthy due to the high demand for their services, making it impossible for anyone to hire them for even the most straightforward repairs.
If you haven't seen the episode, here are a few excerpts.
Randy rolls up his sleeves and moves the oven door continuously, revealing that it is broken. The oven door also appears tilted sideways, and whenever it is moved, screeching metal is heard.
Randy: You see this? See this? The oven door isn't working. It's falling off the hinges. So what do we do? Shelley?
Shelley: I don't know.
Randy: It's very simple. You gotta make the hinges tighter so the oven door's more secure. So what you do is...
Randy reaches his hand towards his pocket, and as he takes out his phone, he points towards it.
Randy: You take out your phone and you call the handyman.
...
Later, Randy uses Siri to ask for help.?
Randy: Hey, Siri, how do you fix a broken oven door?
Siri: Here's what I found from reference.com. "Undo any screws that hold the hinges in position, pull the door upward and then outwards to detach hinges from the oven. Insert the new hinge into the hinge holes and secure the hinges with screws."
Randy: Hey, Siri, okay, can you do that for me?
Siri: Can I do what for you?
Randy: Can you fix my oven door for me? It's broken.
Siri: I cannot do that because I do not have arms. You will need to call a handyman.
...
Later,?Randy arrives at the Home Depot looking for blue-collar workers but finds white-collar workers with signs also looking for blue-collar workers.
Randy: Hey! Hey, I need a worker!
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The group walks closer to Randy's vehicle, and they become clamoring. "Is that a handyman?" "There's one!", "Hey, you wanna trade?" a handful of them ask.
Randy: What the fuck?
Gerald: Randy! You know how to do stuff, right? I gotta get the radiant heat installed in my house, and I'm offering free legal advice in exchange.
Chris Martins: You need a reporter? I'll report the news to you if you fix my shower tile!
Unnamed Man #1: How about a computer programmer? I can do coding!
Unnamed Man #2: Insurance broker? Insurance broker?
...
A handyman arrives in a vehicle with "HANDYMAN REPAIR SERVICES" written on the left side. He stops his truck to the left of Randy.
Unnamed Handyman: Hey, anyone wanna make a bunch of money? I need four workers who know how to use a power saw.
Gerald: I'll do lawyer work if you install my radiant heat!
Unnamed Man #3: I've got skills in human resources. Let's work something out!
Unnamed Handyman: No, I need guys that know how to work a power saw.
After a brief amount of time, no one answers the handyman.
Unnamed Handyman: None of you know how to work a power saw? Jesus Christ.
The narrative above reminds me of an analysis by Princeton economist Alan Blinder, which explores the topic of job security and falling wages for American workers.[1] Many assume the labor market's critical distinction is between highly educated or skilled individuals (i.e., white-collar workers) and less educated or unskilled (i.e., blue-collar workers). This view suggests that the solution for rich countries is to upskill their workforce. However, Blinder argues that this view may be mistaken. He means that the future's critical divide might be between work that can be easily delivered through an internet connection without a decrease in quality and work that cannot. This unconventional divide does not correspond with traditional distinctions between high and low-skilled jobs. Blinder proposes that the crucial distinction in the labor market will be whether face-to-face contact is required or a job can be easily outsourced. These jobs require specific knowledge we often overlook, such as tacit, implicit, and situated knowledge, in favor of explicit and universal knowledge. For example, you can only outsource the construction of a new deck to China if your house is also in China because, as Blinder says, "You can't hammer a nail over the Internet." Likewise, you can only outsource the repair of your oven or treatment of your patients to China if you move both overseas. Therefore, you don't need to worry about those jobs being sent offshore.?Blinder's analysis explains why handymen are still in demand while the therapist's services are not (Handyman Cleetus declines therapy because he has an "AI Freudbot").
Another striking pattern in the episode is the characters' complete lack of interest in doing the work themselves. In Shop Class as Soulcraft, Matthew Crawford highlights how college students learn very little of particular applications. Instead, college is the ticket to an open future. We are taught that "knowing that" is preferred over "knowing how."[2] If you "know that" something is the case, it can be stated from anywhere. I have seen this in my work, and I am also guilty of talking about technology in a broad, universal sense, with little desire for technology for a specific problem that may never be generalized. This attitude is especially strong in AI, where many aspire to solve everything instead of something and are safe from the details of any specific problem. Too many people are rewarded for their potential rather than achievement, where well said is preferred over well done. This pattern should accelerate as universal knowledge is more accessible via generative technology. However, universal knowledge will also face competition from the whole world, as does any occupation based on universal, propositional knowledge. On the other hand, practical know-how is always tied to a person's experience in a specific place, and it can't be downloaded. So, trust those with dirt on their hands (and get your hands dirty). All others are almost certainly wrong.
[1] Blinder, Alan S. “Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?”?Foreign Affairs, vol. 85, no. 2, 2006, pp. 113–28.?JSTOR, https://doi.org/10.2307/20031915 .
[2] Crawford, Matthew B. Shop Class as Soulcraft (p. 162). Penguin Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
at DoD
1 年Thanks for the insightful story and analysis Rich Heimann. I found this part very interesting: "This view suggests that the solution for rich countries is to upskill their workforce. However, Blinder argues that this view may be mistaken. He means that the future's critical divide might be between work that can be easily delivered through an internet connection without a decrease in quality and work that cannot." ??