Yikes
William Kelly
EV advocate. Buzzhead (my invention). Still a petrolhead. Connect. I don't mind disagreement-it forces thinking. I know aquaculture & am a consultant in CSI project management. Journalist in matters motoring.
You know it's not great when you see this guy.
NAAMSA released the CEO Confidence Index on May 27. Events since then, an election for instance, have eclipsed this report but not to this eagle eyed 'optimist the glass was stolen' hack.
Disseminated dispassionately I think it needs a little tweaking. Firstly it is a deceptively simple comparative measure - Q1 2023 vs Q1 2024 measured as either up, down or same across each of the NAAMSA CEOs (anonymously).
It's here and it is only two pages.
I think it's missing some raw emotional reaction - which I understand is not Naamsa's primary function.
Happily for all of you it is mine so here we go...
Holy freaking crap we're all freaking doomed!!!
We are DOWN on every metric measured in Q4 2024 vs Q1 2023. And not by a little. Even the somewhat subjective "General new vehicle business conditions" reflects a 74% guess to the downside.
WTAF?
Remember we have had no load shedding for 2 months - towards the end of Q1 I grant you but it was easing compared to Q1 2023. And we have an election coming up - is that reflected in this general doom and gloom?
And that's just page one. Page two isn't much better
But at least here we see employment as remaining the same (reminder, we need more employment, not less) but investment expenditure is going to be down.
But what about that "massive" "incentive" from government to invest in NEV manufacture? Draw your own conclusions but I suspect Toyota alone has spent more than what this incentive is worth just on congestion charges and supply chain disruptions in the last 6 months than the entire "incentive" for the whole sector. It's relatively not much more than chicken feed in other words and we still don't have meaningful policy.
But hey, exports are going to be up! Good news! Finally!
Ummm.... yup... not really. We're playing catch up here.
It's the last line that galls. Would love to know who the optimist is in this group and I'll let them buy me a beer to cry into. My bet is Stellantis. Love those guys.
Sentiment counts folks. And these are the head honchos at what is not a small portion of our total economy. Take note.
What can we do? I have no idea - strap in, hold on tight, kiss your ass good bye, ignore it and wait for the next one?
Pick one.
Let me know what you choose.