The yield curve and credit risk
The US yield curve is almost flat and under increasing scrutiny.
While there are various theories to explain the flattening in the curve, our concern is about what it means, rather than why it has happened.
With a flat yield curve, a pick-up in lending growth is likely to go hand-in-hand with rising systemic credit risk.
Macro Sales
6 年Yes, flatter curve is a short volatility position now. We have gone from a paradigm of outright yields in G4 having a large influence on risk assets towards a short-term paradigm of the shape of the curve driving risk trading. The market does not believe growth is sustainable in the long term and I would agree with your arguments, particularly when you factor in where M2 has been printing (similar in China). Market believes a downturn is occurring in 2019. Curve inversion should result in a drastic repricing of front end yields (lower) but the reaction to me in credit and EM on this is unknown.