Yet another cycle of uncertainty for North Africa this year
From an editorial by Arezki Daoud on The North Africa Journal this week (https://www.North-Africa.com): As the armed forces and security services manage to control, to a certain extent, the terror threat, the Greater North Africa region is facing unprecedented political tension, social stress and economic despair. Data for all countries in the North Africa zone, without any exception, and extending to the Sahel, look awful. On the economic front, all nations in the region as facing growing budget and trade deficits, dangerously accumulating debts, and currencies that have consistently weakened over the past years. All of them are having hard time attracting foreign investors and stress is on the rise everywhere. While the armies and police see their budget double to deal with terror groups, the rest faces major stress.
Economically, Morocco is facing challenges that threaten its 2017 economic growth, with potential impact on broader society. For instance, GDP growth was its slowest in a decade in 2016 at 1.1%. This is a number shared by government officials... The government insists it will do better in 2017 and expects some rubber-band effect this year. But let’s face it, with FDI down 28% and foreign debt reached $32 billion in mid-2016, what is Morocco doing to recover its lost ground. Many other statistics show the potential for a difficult year to come. Although a divided government may not mean anything since key decisions come from the King, the difficulties of Prime Minister Benkirane to form a government are symptomatic of an executive branch poorly prepared to make coherent policy decisions and a legislature likely to be divided as well.
Algeria’s economy is perhaps in a tougher position considering its oil fortunes have dwindled rapidly these past years owing to the drastic fall in oil prices. A recent recovery in oil prices remains to be confirmed. Some say this year's average will be some $65 per barrel. But the country’s biggest problem is its politics. Its President’s illness, resulting in his virtual disappearance from public eye has allowed his entourage to take center stage and call the shots, constitutes the country’s biggest wildcard related to its stability.
Tunisia’s economy too is in distress and the Prime Minister is having real hard time implementing a broad reform agenda. The agenda was agreed by most stakeholders during the recent Carthage Agreement. That include labor, political parties, corporate lobbies, etc. But no one seems fully on board when it comes to implementation. Its budget and trade deficits have been increasing, FDI was down 7% in 2016, tourism revenues have been down by over 8%, and the country’s political leaders have been making visits to Saudi Arabia, seeking some help. Yet the country’s biggest security problem is the predicted return of a large number of militants from war zones in Syria and Libya. They are some 6,500 Tunisians out there fighting abroad, and their return could spell trouble.
Libya’s economy is non-existent and this year, it will be war as usual. Strong man Haftar is working to become the next Muamar Gaddafi, and has gotten support from Moscow, Riyadh, Cairo and many others whose priorities may not meet those of the Libyan people.
And then there are Trump and Theresa May, and even may be French nationalist Marine Le Pen. All of these will form the basics of yet another cycle of uncertainty for the region.