Yes! Transportation decarbonization has a future!

Since November 5th, I have been asked again and again (and again and again) to answer the same basic question: What does the future of transportation decarbonization look like in light of the change in presidential administration?

During the run up to the election, there was ample rhetoric about Federal programs being cut in ways that would impact transportation decarbonization. Since the election, there is some uncertainty about the priorities of the Federal government, including as it relates to transportation policy.

However, as someone who has invested years of their life in the field of transportation decarbonization, I remain optimistic. Targeting “federal spending” as a campaign issue is hardly new, even targeting specific agencies or programs. But one of the foundational ideas of human society is that people like investment in their communities. Elected officials like bringing money home to their districts. People may not be as enthusiastic about the abstract concept of “federal spending” (especially if it’s somewhere else), but it’s hard not to be happy when your community gets a shiny new piece of infrastructure to address a long-standing need.

Beyond this, the following are a few more specific reasons why my best read of the transportation decarbonization landscape is less bleak than it otherwise could be:

?1)????? Clean air for kids is popular everywhere: Whether you are in Oakland or Oklahoma, parents are in favor of their kids not breathing in diesel exhaust when they ride the bus to school. Clean air, especially for vulnerable populations like children, is popular everywhere. This is good news for programs like the EPA Clean School Bus Grant program, which awarded funds to 280 school districts in 38 states in its 2023 funding round. Further, almost $3B of the $5.7B awarded under the EPA Clean School Bus Grant in 2023 went to high-need and/or rural districts. The popularity of clean air for kids and the wide distribution of the funding should provide some protection to clean school bus programs that may have otherwise been on the chopping block.

?2)????? The Electric Vehicle industry is a job engine: In the recent election, the issue of Electric Vehicle’s (EV) and its impact on the American auto industry was used as something of a boogeyman, particularly in Michigan. The EV Politics Project has some great data in this space and lays out the case that a strong EV manufacturing base in the US is critical to long term economic health. Beyond the manufacturing sector, there is a growing need for qualified technicians who can maintain EVs, both light and heavy duty. These are skilled trade positions which command a healthy wage.

?3)????? The private sector has a say: Many private stakeholders have made commitments to decarbonize their product lines. These include major players like Ford, Daimler, the Volvo Group, and more. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that commitment dates could slide based on Federal actions. But I am hard pressed to imagine a fundamental change in product strategy. Whether it happens in 2050 or 2060, the days of gasoline and diesel engine dominance are numbered. In addition, there is a growing industry both in the US and abroad based on the deployment of charging infrastructure and related software, operations, and maintenance services. This industry has been helped along by Federal policy. But with major private investment in this market space, the market will continue to carry forward.

?4)????? States and localities have their own agency: The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has set its own aggressive goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (link). As the 5th largest economy in the world, California has quite a bit of sway in the market. Further, 17 other “CARB Opt In” states have adopted at least some of California’s regulations in the transportation sector. While these states may see an impact to their level of Federal funding in the coming years, I do not expect them to reverse course as a result. At worst, I could see reduced Federal support leading to a slower pace of progress in some cases.

The next 4 years will bring changes and surprises I’m sure. I remain hopeful that a new administration will simply want to put their own stamp on why, how, and where funds are awarded. Beyond that, states and the private sector will continue to forge ahead. Overall, I am optimistic that the future of transportation decarbonization remains strong.