Yes, Kenya Can Attempt Tapping Lake Victoria Waters, Ethiopia has and Climate Change Demands We Act...BUT THIS IS NOT VIABLE

How to Make Lake Victoria and Indian Ocean Waters Viable for Reducing Kenya’s Water Stress.

By Richard Kitheka

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Fabian Mule, MP for Kangundo, Machakos County has controversially today proposed that the government should immediately cease building expensive dams and instead invest capital expenditure and the military in pumping fresh water from Lake Victoria and from the Indian Ocean all across Kenya to serve the needs of millions of starving people and livestock firmly in the grip of the worst drought in 40 years. Brilliant thoughts these but there are underlying policy, economic and geopolitical obstacles in the path of such an effort. For starters, Lake Victoria waters are largely protected by a series of treaties with Nile Water countries and desalination cost constraints face Kenya in harvesting Indian ocean waters.

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The 1929 Nile River Treaty between Great Britain on behalf of its East African colonies and Egypt granted Egypt the right to veto any development projects on the Nile River or its tributaries, which significantly limited the ability of upstream countries (including Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania) to use the river's resources for their own economic development. Of course this has been contested severally, even ignored by some member states.

In the 1950s, Egypt and Sudan protested the building of the Owen Falls Dam in Uganda. The dam was to generate hydroelectric power and help control flooding on the Nile River. The dam was built anyway with the help of the World Bank.

In the 1990s, the Nile Basin Initiative was formed by 10 Nile River basin countries that included Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda to promote cooperation and development in the region. However, Egypt and Sudan initially refused to sign the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement, which aimed to establish a legal and institutional framework for water sharing among the Nile Basin countries.

Recently, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River caused tensions between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. Egypt raised concerns that the dam, which was filled in 2021, will significantly reduce the flow of water downstream, affecting its water supply and agricultural production. Ethiopia argued that the dam was needed by Ethiopia to provide much-needed electricity-up to 6450MW - and economic development for its 118 million people. It went on to build the USD 5billion dam and is set to open it in 2024.

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Ethiopia argued that the 1929 Nile River Treaty is outdated and unfair to upstream countries. Ethiopia has also criticized the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement which divided the Nile's waters between Egypt and Sudan for ignoring the needs and rights of upstream riparian countries including Kenya.

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To circumvent these challenges, Ethiopia pursued a policy of constructing dams and other infrastructure projects on the Nile and its tributaries, with the aim of harnessing the river's resources for its own economic development. In addition to the GERD, Ethiopia has also built the Gilgel Gibe I and II dams on the Omo River which is a major tributary of the Nile.

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All this flurry of activity by Kenya’s neighbor that is grappling with population explosion means that Hon Fabian Mule’s statement may have some spine. Kenya could also follow suit and propose its own projects to protect and sustainably manage its issues given that recent environmental circumstances have altered the landscape, altered precipitation levels and droughts are getting more frequent and much longer with invaluable loss of lives and biodiversity now witnessed in Kenya.

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This rightly calls for a review of the said agreements to allow all share the Nile’s catchment basin equitably.

As for the Indian Ocean the waters can be tapped for use in Kenya to reduce water stress, specifically through desalination technologies which remove salt and other minerals from seawater making it suitable for human consumption and other uses. However, legal instruments need to be considered to enable such projects. These include International Law considerations to ensure compliance with international law on the use of trans-boundary waters. This would involve consultation and cooperation with neighboring countries that share the Indian Ocean, such as Tanzania, Somalia, and Mozambique.

At a national level, Kenya would need to enact national legislation to govern use of desalinated water and regulate operations of desalination plants. This would include laws on water quality, water rights, and environmental integrity protection.

Kenya would need to develop water allocation plans that prioritize, zone, rank and map the use of desalinated water for various purposes, including domestic use, agriculture, and industrial uses. It must also consider sustainable financing mechanisms since desalination projects can be expensive to implement and maintain. This calls for effective public-private partnerships and support of international financing institutions such as the World Bank and the IFC. According to the International Desalination Association, the capital cost of a large-scale desalination plant can range from $1,000 to $2,500 per cubic meter of water produced, with operational and maintenance costs ranging from $0.50 to $3 per cubic meter of water produced.

In the end, a mix of a coherent set of water management policies designed to optimize the two proposed water bodies buffered with appropriate environmental considerations can make this proposal viable and possible to distress Kenya off its perennial water stress, now compounded by climate change induced drought.

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The authors:

Richard Kitheka is a communications expert and sustainability consultant. Email [email protected] T: @goldfishpr