YEMEN-BASED HOUTHIS ISSUE THREAT AGAINST UAE

Over the past week, the Yemen-based Houthis have claimed two attacks on the UAE. The first occurred on January 17 and led to an explosion of three fuel transport tankers in Abu Dhabi’s Musaffah and a fire near Abu Dhabi International Airport (AUH). Three civilians were killed. The Houthis claimed that they used Quds-2 cruise missiles, Zulfiqar ballistic missiles, and Samad-3 UAVs. The UAE later confirmed that the Houthis used cruise and ballistic missiles as well as UAVs and that the Emirati air defense systems were unable to intercept all of them. On January 24, the Houthis claimed to have targeted Abu Dhabi using Zulfiqar missiles, including al-Dhafra Air Base, located 23 km south of AUH, and “important sites” in Dubai using Samad-3 UAVs. The UAE confirmed that its air defense systems had intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis towards the UAE and that the remnants of the missiles fell in separate unspecified areas of Abu Dhabi without causing casualties.

These attacks are tied to events in Yemen. The UAE supports the Giants Brigade, which has made territorial gains vis-a-vis the Houthis in Yemen’s Shabwa and Marib in recent weeks. This has caused a setback for the Iran-backed Shiite group. Thus, through these attacks, the Houthis are likely attempting to put pressure on the UAE to withdraw its support for the Giants Brigade. The Houthis have threatened UAE-based companies to leave the country on at least two occasions since the start of these hostilities due to its rulers’ “aggression against Yemen”. This is meant to project the UAE as unsafe and adversely impact its economy.?

The Houthis maintain an interest in targeting the UAE but are unlikely to be able to maintain the pace of such attacks as they are difficult and costly to execute. Although the Houthis frequently launch cross-border UAV/missiles targeting Saudi Arabia’s southern provinces, they have not been able to persistently attack the Saudi interior or the UAE. This is due to the limitation of their long-range missiles or/and UAV arsenal, which inhibit their capacity to keep up the pace of attacks targeting sites at a greater distance from their territories in Yemen. It is unlikely that the Houthis will attempt to target specific international firms operating in the UAE, despite recent threats, unless they are engaged in a strategic sector, such as the national oil and gas industry. Hence, the main risk for international organizations operating in the UAE currently emanates from travel at Emirati international airports, which have become a Houthi target, misidentification of the target due to the inaccuracy of the missile or UAV launch, or collateral damage due to falling shrapnel.?

Operational Recommendations

Those operating in the?UAE over the coming weeks are advised to ensure that all personnel are cognizant of emergency procedures in the event of an aerial attack.?This is particularly for organizations located near strategic infrastructure, such as airports, military bases, and oil facilities, as these are likely to serve as targets for?Houthi attacks. Depending upon the site, emergency procedures may include identifying warning sirens of incoming attacks and appropriate places of shelter (preferably underground), ensuring that internal tracking and communication systems are in place, and preparing contingency plans.?In the event that an explosion is heard, immediately seek cover. Remain cognizant that even if an incoming missile or drone is intercepted, falling shrapnel/debris constitutes a significant risk. UAVs may fly in swarms, which allows multiple drones to attack a target simultaneously or in the minutes after the initial explosion.?It is advised to take cover in a designated shelter, or if one does not exist, in a room with as few external walls, windows, and openings as possible. Close all openings, sit on the floor below the window line and near an internal wall, which will partially protect against incoming shrapnel.?Wait at least ten minutes and communicate with a supervisor before moving from the indoor site. If outdoors, lie on the ground and cover your head. Do not gather in areas where missiles/UAVs may have fallen as fires or secondary explosions are possible. If you see unexploded ordnance on the ground, keep your distance and notify the authorities.?Lastly, remain abreast of regional security developments to assess the likelihood of potential attacks.

To learn more about risks to international organizations operating in the UAE, sign up for MAX's Global Intelligence Portal .