The Year of the Snake, Snake Oil & Talent

Who is likely to adopt AI faster - the person who has learned a lot about AI or the one who does not? Read what research tells us. And why the year of the snake is good way to understand why I am recommending this book.

People with less knowledge about AI often show greater receptivity to using it, known as the “lower literacy-higher receptivity” link. This openness is partly due to AI’s magical appeal, as seen with tools like ChatGPT. However, there’s a significant gap between AI’s true capabilities and the hype surrounding it. As AI transforms business models and forces legacy companies to adapt, it’s crucial to differentiate between reality and hype before investing. This distinction is important in a landscape where misinformation is prevalent, and wise investment decisions are key to achieving a return on investment.

2025 is the Year of the Snake

In Chinese culture, the Snake is revered as a symbol of wisdom and knowledge. Individuals born in the Year of the Snake are believed to possess deep thinking abilities, keen intuition, and the capacity to uncover secrets and hidden truths. The Snake’s association with transformation and rebirth is linked to its ability to shed its skin and emerge anew, symbolizing renewal and adaptability.

Book Review and Recommendation

In “AI Snake Oil,” Princeton researchers Professor Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor provide a nuanced and critical examination of artificial intelligence, distinguishing between genuine advances and overblown claims.

The authors argue that while some AI applications show real promise, others are effectively “snake oil” – solutions that don’t work as advertised but are sold anyway. Their analysis is particularly valuable because it avoids both extremes - uncritical techno-optimism and blanket skepticism.

There are three kinds of AI

The next time someone talks about AI, ask them which kind of AI are they talking about. This sketchnote gives you a summary of the key ideas.

1. The Three Faces of AI – Predictive, Generative and Content Moderation

a) Predictive AI – this one gets a B- or C from Prof

Think of AI being used in hiring or processing medical claims by predicting how long a person needs to be hospitalised. I was fascinated by the section on using predictive AI in hiring. Simply adding a bookshelf in the video background improved candidate scores. Changing resume format from PDF to plain text affected personality scores. Using “fancy” words like “conglomerate” could artificially improve ratings of candidates. There is inherent bias against non-native English speakers. Resume screening tools often missed qualified candidates due to formatting issues

Candidates can fool hiring algorithms by simply adding keywords in white text on their resume. Or by adjusting their speaking patterns. What is worse is when AI is hiring, the candidates don’t know how they’re being evaluated and there’s no meaningful way to appeal decisions.

Once a company has spent money on these tools, they are forced to continue using it to recover costs and will be advocating for their usage to their peers.

b) Generative AI – this one gets an A grade from the prof

It is useful for content creation and coding. It still suffers from factual inaccuracies and hallucination. The human biases in training show up in the output too. Remember how Google got a lot of flak when Gemini changed the look of the US Founding Fathers. Besides there are strong protests raised about how some of these models have stolen data from the internet to train the algorithms.

c) Content Moderation AI – It gets a B or B+ at best

From Facebook to YouTube, any platform that has user generated content has to address how it will deal with content that needs to be moderated. From child pornography to political content and sites that give out questionable medical, financial advice that is useless at best and damaging in many cases, AI has failed to live up to its hype. It fails to distinguish between harmful content and legitimate discussion.

What can be done

Organizations adopt AI as a solution to complex problems. For example sorting the problem of getting a large volume of resumes while hiring, the employers use AI. When done without proper human oversight and accountability, there is no understanding of the limitations of the tech.The market forces drown out the facts. Consider the institutional context and capacity before you implement something because it has the word AI in it.

“AI Snake Oil” is an important contribution to our understanding of AI’s role in society. Its framework for distinguishing between different types of AI and their limitations is particularly valuable. The authors successfully balance acknowledging AI’s genuine advances while critically examining overblown claims and potential harms.

Your chances of getting promoted depend on the Talent Pyramid

Organizations start off looking like pyramids. Everything works smoothly. And then when the first set of promotions are announced, the first seeds of chaos are sown. That is if there is no planful talent management. Every department starts jockeying for more promotions. Then the star peformer threatens to leave. He or she is promoted and then a few more promos are thrown in as an after thought. Very soon ,,,

I spoke to Tonushree Mondal who helped in demystifying some of these talent management concepts. The idea: help people understand these so that they can navigate their own career choices better.

Let me know what you thought of it. If you liked it, pl feel free to use it and share it with your friends and colleagues.

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