“Y” I was right!

 “It’s going on everywhere [in the world]. The Elites…they think in terms of Left, Right, and Center. And the people, honestly? think in terms of us against the Elites.”

—Scott, a caller from Atlanta

Two years ago, I wrote an article, The Y (why) Axis of Politics. In it, I put forth a wild argument for a new Machine Learning (ML) mathematical feature, called the Y axis of politics. For centuries, we have studied politics as if there was only one feature to measure—liberalism vs. conservatism. These are represented on a flat X axis of Left to Right, accordingly. My new theory demonstrated this single feature to be flat-world thinking. Any ML model with only one feature is boring, flat. With the election of 2016, we needed at least a second feature in order to understand what in the wide-world-of-sports was going on around here!

That new second feature has been there all along. We just didn’t notice it.

The Y axis is a vertical line that intersects the Left/Right X axis of politics. The Y axis reaches up to Elitism (ideologues) and down to Populism (pragmatists), and it applies to ALL political views, left to right. You can be a liberal pragmatist or a liberal ideologue. Same holds true for conservatives.

In my article two years ago, I made this bold claim…

“Now, it can be very clear that the Y axis is not a fad. The Elitist/Populist scale is real, and will win and lose elections just as much as Left/Right… elitists aren’t thinking strategically—and that's the most interesting thing about this wide, new, colorful world. They're focused on the Left and Right, and haven’t started to mix in the Y axis of Elitism/Populism. Only the winners have done that so far.”

Howdy-doody, I was right!

In the 2018 elections, Elitists gave way to Populists in droves, regardless of party. Republican Elitists were replaced by Populists of both parties. Democratic Elitists were replaced by Populists of both parties.

Crowley, McCaskill, Flake, and Corker are out. Ocasio-Cortez, Sinema, Blackburn, and Halwey are in.

As you can see from this short yet illuminating list…it didn’t matter if you were Left/Right, or if your opponent was Left/Right. All combinations of loss existed.

The ins were all Populists and the outs were all Elitists.

Those politicians who are still blind to the Y axis, who are still watching politics in black & white, and who now think they must move to the left or right in order to win are slow thinkers, and probably deserve to lose. More’s the pity.

Take the Elitist French President, Macron… (please!)

In France, the rioting has been far more severe than Americans have been led to believe.

The Yellow Vests (so-called because ordinary citizens are forced by nanny-state law to carry yellow vests in their cars at all times, just in case they have an accident—still to come…clean undies) violently protested gasoline price hikes to over $7 per gallon when prices elsewhere continue to drop below $1.90.

Regardless of what you may hear in the American press, the Yellow Vests were reportedly evenly mixed—liberals and conservatives. But they were all reportedly 100% Populists, and their enemy was Elitism that used “saving the planet” to hike their price to live, liberally move around, and pursue happiness.

An Elitist goal was causing a Populist crisis.

Once we adopt the Y axis and apply it to the X, things become easier to understand. For example…to beat Andrea Ocasio-Cortez, you don’t move further left. You, instead, must appeal to the Populists voters with a more centrist explanation of how her leftist views will bring immediate harm to them.

“If we go her direction, you’ll feel it… but it won’t be good. You’ll see a lot of lost jobs and danger way before you see a big fat check from the government—her plans can’t afford that. And you damn sure ain’t-gonna see the rich hurting any time soon. Her way simply won’t work. But there is a better way…we can make sure that things improve for you and your child as they improve for everyone else…I'll make sure of that!”

If you go further to the left, or if you scoff at her from hallowed idealism up above, you’re not just nuts…you'll also lose.

Why am I pointing all this out?

Well… to gloat a little, I guess. But also, to make a new observation. As in the past when political scientists eventually observed a natural pendulum swing from Left to Right over time (duh!) going in nearly 6-year cycles, so in the future there will also likely be a pendulum swing between Populism and Elitism over time.

When I was young, my Grandpa taught me about plowing behind a horse. “To make your furrow straight every time, you have to pick a telephone pole way off in your neighbor’s field, and plow towards that.”

That’s Elitism. You idealistically pick a pole way out on the horizon and you shoot for that.

Then my Grandpa continued, “but if a big rock or stump gets in the way, you have to stop and fix the problem before you hurt your horse or break your plow.”

That’s Populism. Sometimes you must set ideology aside and be more pragmatic with your short-term actions to address immediate needs.

President Trump totally got that. It doesn’t matter whether he was Right, Left, or Center. He stopped the horse to remove a stump or two…and by the way, the stumps were on fire! The Elites on both sides of Trump wanted to keep on plowing to their ideological poles, even if it killed our horse and broke our plow. The pendulum of the United States (and the rest of the world, for that matter) swung hard to the Populist side of the Y axis as people of all party-affiliations felt imperiled by the ideologies of the Elites.

However…eventually that pendulum will begin to swing back.

Once our fiery stumps of economy, national defense, and border security are dowsed and yanked, we will begin plowing again. Which pole will we pick on the horizon to plow towards?

A savvy politician will swing with that pendulum and begin to identify planks of ideology as the north stars for their still pragmatic choices. People don’t question your actions so deeply when they are in Populist mode. They just react—as our Yellow Vest friends in France did, against the Elite. But once the immediate concerns are addressed, luxury affords more room for a questioning intellect, and a nation will crave what they feel to be enlightened leaders with purpose.

What lesson can we learn today from all of this?

For today… be a Populist. But, be ready to support your pragmatic positions with more Elite goals. Pragmatists that are a little more idealistic will rule the next election or two.