xvalue's analysis: AI scouting for Liverpool FC
After 8 years under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool now enters a new area under Arne Slot. The club is known for its thoughtful and data-driven decision making, so it's not too surprising that they still haven’t completed signings considering that a new coach has arrived and the transfer market has been affected by competitions such as the EUROS, the Copa America and the Olympic Games. In the same style as a thoughtful and data-driven club like Liverpool, in this extensive analysis with the aid of our AI scouting tool and advanced reports, we will search for sensible and useful targets which could fit the footballing principles of Arne Slot such as a new holding midfielder, some alternatives in the defensive line and some cover in attack.
How does Arne Slot fit in at Liverpool?
At the age of 45, Arne Slot is still a relatively young coach. His previous managerial experiences have been in the Netherlands where he is mostly known for his work first with AZ Alkmaar and then for carrying Feyenoord to the Eredivisie title in 2022/23 (he also won the Dutch cup in 2023/24). His impact on Feyenoord is well represented in the xGD timeline displayed below.
His appointment clearly wasn’t coincidental as his previous teams share many traits with Klopp’s Liverpool. In particular at Feyenoord, he deployed a possession-based style (with the possibility to go for more direct and quick attacks if space opens up) and a high and intense press when out of possession. Amongst his footballing principles we often see him deploy inverted full-backs (at the club he might use Trent Alexander-Arnold in this way considering the English international is often deployed directly in midfield as seen also at the EUROS) and overloads through the centre. It is perhaps how central spaces and the width of the pitch are used that sets Slot apart from his predecessor.?
We are yet to see if and how he will adapt his tactics to the Premier League. Compared to the Eredivisie, the Premier League has a higher pace of play both in and out of possession, so there could be less chances to exploit central overloads. It must also be noted that Liverpool probably possess more talent and attacking solutions than Feyenoord leaving room for some tactical innovation as the season progresses. On paper, Slot looks like a very sensible appointment which should leave the supporters very excited despite the departure of their legendary manager. But what about his new team?
Liverpool’s roster
In order to understand what players must be brought in to improve the team it is obviously important to make a thorough analysis on what the current roster is like, how the players could evolve over the course of the season and what impact could the market have on the team’s composition.
Goalkeepers
Liverpool is surely covered when it comes to goalkeepers. Alisson represents a perfect combination of shot stopping abilities and ball distribution, indeed he is definitely amongst the world’s best. Even with the starting spot being taken by the Brazilian, Kelleher provides a reliable backup. Jaros could serve as a third goalkeeper or move out on loan again to grab more playing time. In this case a replacement should be brought in but with little to no expense considering the level of the first 2 choices.
Defenders
The defensive line has lost an experienced player such as Joel Matip. Virgil Van Dijk stays as club captain and the leader of the defence, Konaté is expected to play alongside him with Joe Gomez and Quansah featuring as the main back-up options. After his loan to Mainz, Sepp Van den Berg has returned to the club. It is yet to see if he will stay at the club or he will move somewhere else. In the meantime, some rumours have come out on a €10M proposal from PSV which has been immediately rejected for the Dutch defender, who is very strong in the air (he was second for aerial duels won in the last Bundesliga season). Nathaniel Phillips is also a strong player in the air, but he likely will have little to no playing time as he was already sent out on loan to Celtic and Cardiff during last season. Also Rhys Williams is unlikely to be an option and will probably be loaned out or sold.
With regards to full-backs, Liverpool are covered with the highly-rated Robertson and Alexander-Arnold being club legends for The Reds. Tsimikas is an alternative to the Scottish left-back but with different characteristics, were Liverpool to receive an important offer for him (current market evaluation close to €20M), it could be reinvested into a replacement. On the right, instead, the young Bradley has impressed over the course of last season playing over 1000 minutes in all competitions (over 700 minutes in the Premier League). He can provide a viable alternative to Alexander-Arnold, however it is potentially a position where Liverpool could intervene.
Midfielders
We previously discussed the revolution to Liverpool’s midfield and the need for some replacements in this analysis. After a full season, MacAllister and Szoboszlai have become regular starters and look like pillars of Liverpool’s midfield. In last season’s analysis we suggested that Moises Caicedo was the best fit for that position and Liverpool did try everything they could to make the deal happen (with a reported offer in the region of €100M) so when the deal collapsed they made a €20M offer for Wataru Endo, who has since played 20 games as a starter in the Premier League. With Endo being the only player capable of playing that position with the attributes of a “Ball Stealer” (apart from the young Bajcetic who has recovered from injury), it is a position that the club may be willing to invest in. Curtis Jones has expressed admiration for Slot’s style of play after just a couple of training sessions so he looks happy to stay and continue developing at the club. The skillful Harvey Elliott is also making steady progress affirming his role as a creative mezzala ever since the departure of Shaqiri: given his characteristics and past experiences, he could play as an attacking midfielder or right winger as a backup for Salah. As we suggested in our blogpost, Ryan Gravenberch was a strong candidate to complete their midfield and eventually he was indeed brought in for €40M. He is probably best suited to a box-to-box role rather than being the pivot of a midfield and that is where he has mostly played. However, if they were to use a tactical shape with 2 midfielders, he could feature there.?
Attackers
The frontline obviously is led by Mohamed Salah who has decreased his incredible goalscoring output during last season but remains a key player not just in front of goal but also in chance creation (his xA output is currently the best it has ever been). Darwin Nunez hasn’t been as clinical in front of goal as fans would have hoped but remains an important player for Liverpool given his incredible ability to make threatening runs and get on the end of high-xG chances. Luis Diaz has had some dips in form but looks motivated to cement his place on the left wing. Cody Gakpo instead has struggled to repeat in the PL the exceptional performances he has put up in the Eredivisie and with his national team. However, Slot’s arrival could help the Dutchman to finally thrive in the Premier League and fulfil his potential. Diogo Jota remains an extremely reliable, efficient and versatile player capable of playing in almost any attacking position. Despite his struggles with injuries during last season, he scored 10 goals in just over 1000 minutes of PL action. He surely will represent a good option for Slot’s game plans also given his ability to deliver both as a starter and from the bench. Fabio Carvalho has returned from his loan, but his future remains uncertain as he could go back out on loan. Finally, Ben Doak is a very promising winger and could fill in gaps when needed but could also easily go out on loan to seek more playing time than that he would receive at Anfield.
Targeting squad needs
After a thorough squad analysis, keeping in mind Slot’s footballing principles we can look at some potential targets (or identikits) to improve the side.
In defence, an alternative to TAA could prove beneficial to provide cover (especially if Bradley was to leave the club out on loan). So, we would be looking at a right-back who is comfortable on the ball and can provide more defensive solidity than Alexander-Arnold (the Englishman is amongst the best progressive passers in world football but often shows defensive frailties).
In the heart of defence, what is missing is a left-footed centre-back who is confident in possession. However, all current options are right-footed and Liverpool currently have 7 centre-backs on their books. If we exclude Phillips and Williams, who probably are on the verge of leaving, that would still leave Van Dijk, Konaté, Quansah and Gomez plus the talented Van Den Berg. While Gomez could also operate as cover for the right-back spot (but with a more defensive approach compared to TAA) he would rather play through the middle. So in order to bring in a centre-back, Liverpool would probably need to sell one (or at least send one on loan).
As mentioned above, Endo is the only option alongside Bajcetic to play in the holding midfield role with a more robust defensive presence than MacAllister who excels in playmaking. In this position we would seek a high-intensity and defensively minded midfielder when out of possession. To truly succeed in that role, also good passing and vision are required.
The other positions in midfield have plenty of cover and talent (MacAllister, Szoboszlai, Elliott, Gravenberch, Jones can all play there), so no further action is needed in that area.
In attack there are two main areas where Liverpool could potentially seek improvements. The first one is a backup option to Darwin Nunez possessing different characteristics to the players currently in the roster: Jota and Gakpo have often played in that position but they tend to roam across the front line. Therefore, Liverpool could seek a profile which can provide a tactical variant to use when needed on top of cover for the central spot in their attack and in case of bigger tactical switches (like using 2 forwards instead of a 3-man line). The other role which would benefit from reinforcements are the wings. Gakpo and Jota can both fill in (preferably on the left, but also on the right if needed) however, they might benefit from playing in a different position (especially Jota). Diaz can play on both wings but he also prefers to start on the left. In this case, the ideal candidate should be capable of playing on both wings in order to provide cover for Salah and Diaz (maybe even challenge them for a starting spot). It is likely that an important investment must be made in order to achieve signing such a player.
Finding sensible transfers thanks to our AI scouting tool
After having identified the main areas for potential improvement, it is time to which targets might be more suited to fill the gaps we highlighted. To help us in the scouting process, we will utilise our new AI scouting tool which allows us to find in a matter of seconds our desired players based upon our own personal criteria.
Our researches will focus upon:
Finding a new right-back (Wide Controller/Build-up Director)
To find our selected targets, we asked our scouting tool to find a right-back with strong defensive skills and reliable ball distribution, with no particular restrictions other than the budget must be between €10M and €35M and the player must be under the age of 28.
Alternatively, we asked to find a left-footed centre-back with exceptional ball distribution and strong underlying defensive numbers, under the age of 26 within the €15M-€40M range.?
Lutsharel Geertruida (Wide Controller/Build-up Director)
Geertruida represents a very obvious choice since he has been managed by Slot at Feyenoord. There, he stood out as a key player in the team. His ability to start out wide and then come inside was a clear example of his ability to play as an inverted full-back (to the point that he was clustered as a Build-up Director, a cluster typically associated with a Regista). His heatmap also confirms how he tends to occupy more central positions than the typical full-back. Feyenoord was extremely dominant in the Eredivisie, even more than Liverpool could be in the Premier League so his average position might be lower, but we do imagine him playing very similarly to what he was used to.
Currently valued at €32M, the Dutchman would be a very solid option at the right-back spot. He does possess distinctive qualities compared to the Englishman, most noticeably in his defensive output as highlighted by his defensive index displayed above. Some issues may perhaps arise regarding his playing time: it is likely that both he and Alexander-Arnold will be wanting to start regularly so that could lead to some discontent in the long term. However, that is a risk which can be taken considering that with the ever-increasing playing schedule injuries are more and more frequent so possessing quality alternatives (also with different characteristics) is becoming increasingly fundamental. However, if Slot decided to use Joe Gomez as a more conservative option for that position, then a new possibility may arise.
Nico Schlotterbeck (First line-Breaker/Wide Controller/Build-up Director)
If Liverpool were to go for a new central defender rather than bulking up the right-back spot, then Schlotterbeck would represent an ideal candidate in our view. He has strong underlying defensive numbers, is skilled with the ball at his feet and has some tactical flexibility to be used in different ways. He could also cover the left-back spot but with a completely different skill set compared to Robertson and Tsimikas. However, were they to sell or loan out one or two of them, he would be an ideal candidate to strengthen their backline in and out of possession.
On top of that, he would be the only left-footed central defender at the club which is something that is often valued by managers. He is comfortable not only with passing the ball but also carrying it as proved by his progressive actions depicted below.
For the future, he could represent a possible replacement for Virgil Van Dijk, it will be difficult to replicate the level of perhaps the best central defender of the last 10 years, but he does possess the attributes needed to succeed at a club like Liverpool.
Finding a holding midfielder (Ball stealer/Build-up director)
During last season, Liverpool overhauled their midfield with the departures of Fabinho, Henderson and Keita among others. Around this time of the year we published a detailed analysis where we looked for potential Fabinho replacements. We conducted a similarity-based research where we uncovered some of the most suitable replacements for Fabinho. We repeated the analysis this year (keeping the same parameters of Fabinho last year) and the results are shown in the image here below.
Once again, Ugarte, Camavinga, Florentino, Caicedo, Gueye and Camara feature in this shortlist. However, lots of things have changed from last year. Amongst the top targets we will exclude Camavinga (firmly off the table for Real Madrid), Joao Neves (bound for PSG), Caicedo (recent transfer with very high fee), Camara (reportedly linked with Saudi clubs) and Wieffer, who just signed for Brighton at the beginning of the window (he would have been a very strong candidate).
Manuel Ugarte (Ball Stealer/Build-up Director)
As it was last year, Ugarte seems to be a great fit. His exceptional defensive workrate is much needed in his position and despite not receiving praise at PSG his underlying defensive numbers remain very impressive as shown below. The images speak for themselves.
领英推荐
What Ugarte is perhaps missing compared to some other top players is playmaking and the ability to serve killer passes like Andrea Pirlo or Toni Kroos. However, despite this, he still is a very reliable option when in possession as the numbers show.?
So, Ugarte definitely possesses the characteristics we were looking for. His price has probably dropped compared to last season. However, if Liverpool are keen on signing him they should act swiftly since rumours have come out that he has found agreement on personal terms with Manchester United. As last season showed us, anything can happen in the transfer market and a coup for Ugarte might just be one of the surprise stories of the transfer window.
Martin Zubimendi (Ball Stealer/Build-up Director)
If a pursuit of Ugarte were to yield no results, there are still many options which could be explored. An interesting candidate is Martin Zubimendi, who has a release clause of €60M but could perhaps be available for a lower fee. At Real Sociedad he is usually deployed as the pivot in midfield but occasionally he is paired also with another teammate. He is strong in the air and is capable of completing a high number of defensive actions. He is competent when passing the ball and also stands in ball carrying (high number of xT from Carries and progressive carries when compared to similar players).
Defensively, he doesn’t stand out for pressing as it isn’t requested of him (in the image below you can observe the trend), instead he performs strongly on other defensive actions such as tackles and interceptions.
Zubimendi could represent an ideal candidate in case the holding midfielder doesn’t need to press high up the pitch but rather covers space behind the first lines of pressing (his ability in interceptions is a further hint). He can also provide some threat to goal as he possesses a strong shot and a strong aerial presence (61% success rate) which could prove useful in tight games.
Florentino Luis (Ball Stealer/Build-up Director)
Florentino Luis already appeared in last year’s analysis as a suitable transfer in defensive midfield. His performances during last season confirm such suitability and his price tag (he has a transfer market evaluation of €20M) is definitely more accessible than the first two candidates. On the pitch, he can play as a pivot or as part of a midfield duo. He is an overall strong defender who particularly stands out for interceptions as he has the highest P90 return in the Primera Liga for build-up directors. Also his underlying pressing stats are impressive.?
On the ball, he prefers to make passes rather than carrying the ball, he is a reliable option when in possession, often looking for simple but effective passes and can also switch play with good results as his long ball accuracy suggests. One of his main duties is to transition defence into attack, meaning that when he recovers the ball he will quickly need to find a teammate to open up space (or be himself that man).
Compared to Endo, he offers a younger alternative (the Japanese captain is 31 years old compared to Florentino’s 24).
Finding versatile wingers (One-to-one Explorer/Mobile Finisher)
To find a suitable winger for Liverpool we asked for a player who can be used on both flanks, capable of dribbling, with solid chance creation, reliable finishing, with a budget of at least €25M and under the age of 27.
Our 2 featured targets are mainly left wingers, although capable of playing also on the right (i.e Chiesa has played there during the EUROS). However, we have also included other potential targets in the honourable mentions section such as Nico Gonzalez and Pedro Neto who could easily step in the side as well.
Anthony Gordon (One-to-one Explorer/Mobile Finisher)?
Gordon is on the back of a season where he reached double figures both in goals and assists with Newcastle. The young Englishman has already been rumoured with a move to Liverpool but no advanced talks have taken place. He is a quick winger, perhaps not with the same flair as other wingers but with strong creative output.
Still just 22, he has considerable margins for improvement and looks like a player who can contribute both offensively and defensively.
However, with a current market evaluation of €60M, it is questionable whether that money could be used differently, after all Diaz has still many years left on his prime and Gordon would probably be often starting from the bench at an age where getting lots of minutes is crucial. For this reason, Gordon might not be a sensible target, however if particular transfer conditions were to be found (perhaps a loan with an option to buy or the inclusion of a swap deal for a departing player) then he could represent a great investment for the future.
Federico Chiesa (One-to-one Explorer/Mobile finisher)
Despite being unquestionably considered as one of Italy’s brightest talents, Federico Chiesa has struggled to deliver the very high expectations put on him while at Juventus. He is rumoured to be a potential sacrifice Juventus are willing to make in order to achieve some of their desired targets (Koopmeiners seems to be on top of the list). Chiesa is a quick and agile winger capable of playing on either flank, he uses quick bursts of pace to get ahead of his man and shoot on goal or serve a teammate. He conjugates such speed with end product and goal contributions. In particular, his creative numbers have considerably risen during last season as shown below.
While the natural talent is undoubted, there are some major concerns over his fitness. In recent years he suffered a cruciate ligament tear which sidelined him for the majority of the 2022/23 season, ever since his return he hasn’t looked to be completely recovered due to not completing his physical preparation with the team.?
Mainly due to the tactical setup of Juventus (Allegri often resorts to a very defensive style with no high press), but also due to his fitness, his pressing numbers have significantly dropped compared to the past. In order to come back on par with his traditional output his physical fitness is crucial.
However, with his contract set to expire in 2025, he could be sold at a cheaper price than his current market evaluation of €35M (already dropped from the €70M of 2021 and the €50M of last December). Chiesa is a risky target, but were he to maintain physical fitness could represent a great bargain for his current evaluation. At Liverpool he could challenge Diaz for a spot on the left wing (favoured position), but also provide valuable backup to Salah on the right wing with different characteristics.
Honourable mentions
Guido Rodriguez
Guido Rodriguez has just turned 30 and has run out his contract with Real Betis. The Argentine international could represent an interesting opportunity on the transfer market to cover the holding midfielder role. What he might lack in terms of speed and ability to cover lots of ground, he compensates with a great understanding of the game which allows him to position himself in order to prevent opposition attacks. If Liverpool need a more classic holding midfielder (who doesn’t need to frequently press high up) he could be the best option. His status as a free agent might see his wage demands go up, however he should be affordable for Liverpool.
Here are a few other names which we haven’t included but could still be very suited to Liverpool’s needs based on what budget they would allocate to that target:
Final remarks
Liverpool already have a very solid and balanced team, meaning that this analysis was not an easy task! On top of that, we have already discussed some of the potential problems that international competitions during the summer entail. However, we believe that this reflective and analytical approach to transfers is something that sets Liverpool apart from their competitors and is one of the reasons why we believe that they can achieve sustained success also after the departure of an influential manager such as Klopp. Much of the arguments and targets are to be debated as it will depend on what tactical needs arise from Slot’s work. We do believe that the proposed names could represent valuable additions to the squad (with different degrees depending on the name). Also those belonging to the honourable mentions section were worthy of more discussions.
Let us know in the comments if you want more information on some of the aforementioned names or to have access to our detailed advanced reports!
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The Soccerment Team