Is XBC cell the next tech route? Silicon and Solar Cells will be the focus of the PV Industry from this Cycle, in terms of Capacity Clearing

Today I am not going to continue to create a pessimistic atmosphere, but to give warmth to everyone in this industry.

From the point of view of the price of PV products, now it must be the bottom, the reason is also very simple, the entire PV industry can't afford for further fall! ?

PV people did make too much money a few years ago, so there will be some thinking inertia (the one, who persists, wins.), making some production capacity can not timely phase out, some production capacity even below the price of cash flow cost, but also continue to struggle for some time. ?But it is now clear that many companies cannot afford to struggle anymore.

Solar cells and modules have seen a significant decline in the operating rate, so let's say a clear view from the product price perspective, this cycle has seen the bottom, no more room for fall, but can only rebound, and I think this rebound will be after SNEC.

The media don't need to be pessimistic all the time. All prices are always controlled by a cash cost. When the industry suffers downward, it can lose depreciation or management fees, but it will not continue to lose cash. So now the average price of ￥0.77 yuan/watt for modules has certainly not only touched the bottom but will also rebound. ?

But for many manufacturers, the rebound doesn't mean better. Because the loss is still too deep, and the capacity is ready to open as long as the price is slightly right, there will be a flood of capacity. Therefore, it can finally reach a balance in a certain position above the cash flow cost, but it can not save the foregone conclusion that some enterprises in the industry are destined to be cleaned. However, I judge that there are two links in this cycle, and the reshuffle is the most tragic, respectively: the silicon material table and the solar cells table.

Part I Silicon Material

First of all, I just looked at the current data. In addition to the traditional five materials (Tongwei, GCL, Xjdasolar, Xinte Energy, Asia Silicon), the new players in this cycle are divided into two types: One is the enterprises with deep accumulation in other chemical fields, such as Oriental Hope at the beginning, and then Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xinjiang Kia, Xinjiang Jinuo, Gansu Baofeng, etc. Even if they fail in this round, there are some cash cows in other fields, especially those with electrolytic aluminum, which is undoubtedly safe. The polysilicon lost money is earned back in one or two years through electrolytic aluminum, so there is generally not too big a problem. ?Others are people in the PV industry already, involved in the upstream, such as Runergy 130,000 tons, Qinghai Lihao 100,000 tons, Hongyuan Green Energy 50,000 tons, Sunrisen 50,000 tons.

The biggest problem is that there is no chemical accumulation, directly from the PV industry. Such enterprises have no deep channel accumulation of new PV enterprises in the PV industry, and their original main business is also with the PV industry's same cycle problems, which is the most liquidity and operational problems of the enterprise group.

Silicon material production capacity cycle is long, large single investment, low production capacity elasticity, long warehouse clearing cycle, once in the clearing process, the cycle is long and painful. Even companies with good technology and management will need very thick bloodsticks to survive this winter, not to mention these new entrants.

Part II Solar Cell

The technical iteration of the solar cell makes it possible for the solar cell stage change to continue to reshuffle: the biggest problem with the solar cell market is that the technology iteration is too fast. At this same time last year, the market share of PERC was close to 80%, while this year, PERC is less than 20%, and 300GW of PERC production capacity is reduced to scrap metal. ?New expansion out of topcon capacity is not ideal, the only two players who gained in this field are Jinko and Trinda.

The new capacity curve is too fast, from 1%~100% popularity in less than 18 months, the existence of a lot of independent third-party excellent equipment companies makes the field of barriers to entry lower, players are too much, and the competition is fierce. A lot of new production capacity just put to face a loss of cash flow. ?The existence of a large number of independent and excellent battery equipment companies also makes the iteration speed in the solar cell field suffocating.

In the silicon PV cell circuit, we are about to see the revolution of BC (Back contact) cells, and many topcon production capacities are facing the fate of being eliminated when just put into production. ?I am optimistic about the technology route of BC back contact solar cells. This solar cell technology route has three logic that bring efficiency and single-watt power generation capacity gain:

First, it is obvious, that, less block to the front side without the busbar and the welding strip, which is the optical gain, and the gain brought by this part is 2.6%.

Secondly, after the front has no metallic grid line, the front can achieve a perfect passivation layer. The perfect passivation layer allows the cell to achieve higher voltage and better temperature coefficient performance, with a 2% power gain.

Finally, the back metalation can use cheap metals such as copper, and aluminum, because it is done on the back of the metalation, so don't have to worry about the grid line being too wide or too thick, blocking light, so metal grid line cross-sectional area can do a little bigger, and brings the metallization efficiency gain of 1%, and lower solar cell non-silicon cost per watt.

After this period of study and research, I am firmly optimistic about this route. The efficiency improvement brought by BC technology is 5% compared with Topcon. The 5% efficiency improvement can bring 5% PV system cost. 5% means that the efficiency gain brought by new technology can make the investment of new products pay back in a year, which also means that the technology has huge potential. This time, SNEC, I visited and learned the products of Aiko and Longi, and deeply feel that the technical outlet of this solar cell again is close at hand. BC comes quickly means that Topcon's life is short.

According to rough statistics, the whole industry has more than 700GW Topcon effective capacity, and these capacities will never be returned to the cost.

Silicon material and solar cells are the key areas of this cycle reshuffle, which is an obvious conclusion that will be formed after reading the full text carefully. The reshuffle depth of this round of PV cycle reshuffle will be unprecedented and will take the substantial exit of many enterprises at the end of the cycle.