##ww520 - “Home Page”

?This is an online project that aims at:

1. Delivering best data about transformation of mobility, transport and likely related: energy generation. This is promoted by posting under #ww520, which anybody can do.
2. Maximum participation from the community via challenging and respectful discussion based on facts.
3. Creating meaningful surveys that we all can respond to and then benefit from all generated data - anonymous, real time, public.

Abstract.

The change of mobility and transport will be bigger than ever before within the next 10 years or ~ 520 weeks - hence #ww520 as hashtag.

This article will serve as data repository of the key indicators measuring this change of mobility and transport. It will be neutral to technologies and companies, just tracking progress, obstacles and showing roadmaps and their evolution. The author is NOT part of the ICE, BEV or hydrogen “lobby”, “fan club” or “conspiracy”.

Status of #ww520 on August 18, 2019 (3 weeks post start):

(1) The transformation of the global mobility and transport eco-system will be massive in the next 10 years which is ~ 520 weeks. Under #ww520 this transformation is mapped in LinlkedIn. Please feel free to follow #ww520 and contribute posts using this hashtag.

One example: By 2050....

To get 1.166.000.000 EVs on the road, assuming on average a 70 kWh battery per passenger car vehicle 

- We need 81.620.000.000 kWh mobile battery capacity

...or 81.620 GWh

- Which is about 81 times the planned global battery production capacity of 2028

...or 600 times the total global battery production capacity in 2017

- https://lnkd.in/eMrKQWB

- https://lnkd.in/dyB2Pvv

(2) There is a growing data repository for this mapping: https://lnkd.in/dbqB9AC. Please use it but also feel free to suggest improvements and extensions 

(3) select YOUR CHOICE of the most innovative automotive OEM in the last 10 years in the survey here and see all data in real time.Ranking takes about 2 minutes or less here: https://lnkd.in/dRFDrgs. Results in detail and in real time: https://lnkd.in/deWA3ux

Overview of the forces:

The Figures below try to show the forces in two different formats - whichever works better for you.

Data of transformation (work in progress)

(1) Global vehicle sales - one of many good overviews by region and by powertrains: https://www.consultancy.uk/news/13900/global-car-market-to-break-through-100-million-in-sales-by-2020

(2) Key milestones in H2 mobility and transport introduction in Europe: https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/hydrogen-mobility-europe-reports-on-key-milestones/ (From https://fuelcellsworks.com/news/)

(3) Ranking of Top 15 OEMs by their revenue, including showing all the family members: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_the-15-corporations-that-make-the-most-cars-activity-6568396467633954816-I6e_

(4) YOUR ranking of the above top 15 OEMs by their innovation and transformation power - if you have not voted yet, rank them too and view the result:

https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/perceived-innovation-power-wilhelm-graupner-ph-d-

https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww03-activity-6568536429071212544-4smt

How innovation can be worth 1.7 billion USD: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_tesla-has-made-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars-activity-6573807868250738688-ELS1

(5) Background on hydrogen based technology and draft for multi decade introduction roadmap: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_the-evolution-of-hydrogen-from-the-big-bang-activity-6568589303708962816-sZOl

(6) Predictions from 2013 for transformation of the mobility sector between then and 2020: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/transformtion-automotive-industry-when-how-wilhelm-graupner-ph-d-

(7) Energy sources available to mankind - which primary energy sources we choose affects all mobility options: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww0-ww520-activity-6561309561121198080-n3WW

(8) The “Automotive Endgame” as seen by Roland Berger - amazing database and great source for scenario discussion: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww03-activity-6568805429298647040-zPQS

(9) CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) strategy of Daimler: https://www.daimler.com/dokumente/investoren/praesentationen/daimler-ir-corporatepresentation-fy-2018.pdf, https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww03-activity-6570437517953257472-6LXh

(10) Why Tesla actually could be undervalued or “transforming 8 related sectors - all driven by one company ?” - rather than just being active as an automaker in a ~1000 billion industry, Tesla is active in 8 different areas, representing a few 1000 billons and its market capitalization might even be too low. The point here is not mainly about Tesla but another the many areas which will change. And this is recognized by many companies by now. https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_why-tesla-critics-are-mostly-short-sighted-activity-6564996110509715457-uC4X

(11) Systematic change of the more structured mobility demand and the new industry offering - out of Volvo Cars’ strategy, image below - https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww04-activity-6571881885406900225-K-pl

(12) On the boundary conditions. Full report at https://lnkd.in/dSVkHQk. This is only ONE of the reasons why I believe the following industries will change, more rapidly than ever before:

1. Automakers 
2. Car dealerships - Direct-to-consumer sales
3. Battery manufacturing
4. Ride-Sharing - includes Autonomous Taxis
5. Energy Production
6. Gas Stations
7. Trucking
8. Energy Storage

(Credit for the list of 8: Benton Crane)

(13) McKinsey EV index looking at EV introduction, quantified - https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww04-activity-6572139550766845952-9olS

(14) AVL view on key performance indicators for sustainable mobility - https://www.cargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/GREBE.pdf - example see below:

(15) Normalized deaths per world region - progress also needs to address these numbers: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_infographic-road-fatalities-per-million-activity-6572789503113601024-PLxW

(16) Roadmap 2050 for new energy sources and mobility options - https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww05-activity-6573832431722352640-mcab

(17) New training formats to get skilled people for the new products: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/jaywantmahajan_automotivedesign-electricvehicle-electronics-activity-6573996417134755840-Os6U

(18) EU targets and actuals for alternative fuel (including ?electric fuel“ = BEV) from https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww05-activity-6574397004707844096-EicZ

(19) Marine / shipping savings potential with active traffic management between/at ports: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww05-activity-6574620701947375616-Qj-_, https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww05-activity-6574597204990803968-ow1U

(20) Well to wheel data for different technologies. Assessed on CO2 footprint as well as efficiency :

• https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww03-activity-6568980323378450432-BPvw

• https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww03-activity-6569392914965819392-Zixv

• https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww01-activity-6565510001941598208-QDlo

• https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_energy-efficiency-different-technologiespng-activity-6577319204490358784-he9j

(21) Worldwide vehicle sales numbers by Powertrain over the years - these numbers drive a transition sceneario for the global fleet of passenger vehicles: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww08-ww520kickoff-activity-6581437874036588544-03S2

(22) Passenger vehicle fleet evolution for the sales scenario shown in (21). All the ICE based vehicles should ideally have soonest carbon dioxide free fuels: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww07-ww520kickoff-activity-6580594289229787137-4BEm

On the mathematics of transition of the global fleet: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_lithiumionbattery-electricvehicles-podcast-activity-6587955333954576384-Qb9I

With the battery production capacity planned for 2028 (below) we can build about 10 million passenger EVs.

This is about 1% of the global fleet.

The currently battery production volume for 2028, while VERY VERY impressive in today’s world is hence enough to replace the global fleet in 100 years if all EVs live 100 years. ?? mental reset needed.

10 times - do it again ! The currently planned battery production volume for 2028 MULTIPLIED BY 10 can hence replace the whole fleet in 10 years if all EVs live 10 years.

Summary: Simple maths which applies to EVs, ICEs and FCEV. It shows that the HIGH efforts we make already are NOT enough IF we are serious. No real escape from these numbers except through massive technology improvements, for EVs mainly on the battery.

A different source projects a higher 2028 capacity. https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/31/global-lithium-ion-battery-planned-capacity-grows-4-in-a-single-month-charts/

(23) composition of cost per mile in trucking to identify the different cost drivers: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_atri-research-finds-industrys-operational-activity-6581547235048202240-M0wu

(24) Different Powertrains and their potential / benefits in a transition scenario: https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww06-ww520kickoff-activity-6576866363523026944-wZBw

(25) Automotive Executives asked by KPMG for their views of top trends - mind the change in methodology. https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww520kickoff-ww11-activity-6589228874192699392-jQb6

(26) Taking into account Powertrain efficiency we can easily calculate which areas we would need e.g. for photovoltaic cells to power all vehicles worldwide:

https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww11-activity-6591085646528434176-caZ_

https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/wilhelmgraupner_ww520-ww11-ww520kickoff-activity-6591087565728690176-5YBI

(27) Structural waste in the current mobility system - source: https://www.treehugger.com/cars/5-steps-replace-private-car-something-better.html