Writing Assumptions in Theories of Change for Gender-focused Projects

When developing a Theory of Change for initiatives aimed at promoting gender equality, one crucial element that often gets overlooked is articulating the underlying assumptions.

What are Assumptions?

Assumptions are the beliefs about what conditions need to be true for your activities to lead to the desired outcomes and impacts. They fill the gaps between different components of your TOC, ensuring a logical flow from activities to outcomes. For gender-focused projects, assumptions help anticipate how gender norms and dynamics influence your project's success.

Why Do Assumptions Matter?

The simple answer is that gender norms and dynamics can greatly influence whether your project succeeds or fails in achieving equitable outcomes. By surfacing and examining the assumptions related to gender roles, power relations, and socio-cultural contexts, you can anticipate potential barriers and design interventions to mitigate them..

So how do you go about identifying and writing effective assumptions for a gender-focused Theory of Change?

Practical Tips for Writing Assumptions

1. Identify Gender Norms and Roles

Start by listing out the existing gender norms and roles within your target communities or populations. Chances are, you're already aware of some of these based on prior experience or research.

Ask yourself: How might these gender norms and expectations affect participation in and outcomes of your planned activities? For example, if you assume women will attend training sessions, have you considered whether cultural restrictions on their mobility in public spaces could prevent their participation?

2. Challenge Your Assumptions

Once you've listed out some potential gender-related assumptions, the next step is to challenge and verify them. Are these assumptions based on valid, current data or are they perpetuating stereotypes? For example the assumption that "men are not interested in nutrition programmes," as could cause you to miss out on potential allies for improving household food security.

A great way to validate assumptions is to engage with community members themselves through focus groups, interviews or surveys specifically designed to understand gender roles and expectations from their perspectives. Don't just rely on your own secondhand knowledge.

3. Make Assumptions Specific, Testable, and Relevant

Make sure your assumptions are:

• Specific: Clearly define the condition (e.g. "If local leaders endorse the health initiative, then community members will participate in health workshops.")
• Testable: Ensure the assumption can be validated ("If women receive business training, then they will start or expand their small businesses within six months." This can be validated by tracking the number of women who start businesses post-training.)
• Relevant: Directly relate to your TOC’s activities and outcomes. (If the project provides gender-sensitive training to educators, then the quality of education for girls will improve." This assumption directly relates to the project's activity and its intended outcome.)

4. Regularly Update Your Assumptions

Finally, remember that assumptions should not be static. They are just that - assumptions that need to continuously evolve based on new learning, feedback and changing social contexts.

Regularly revisiting and updating your assumptions ensures your Theory of Change stays relevant and effective.

Let me illustrate with an example assumption for a vocational training programme for rural women:

Initial assumption: "Women will be able to attend the multi-week residential training since their husbands and mothers-in-law make decisions about their mobility."

Surfaced through community consultations: "While husbands are key decision-makers, mothers-in-law have significant influence too. Some younger women can convince their husbands but not the mothers-in-law."

Updated assumption: "Some women will face family resistance to attending longer residential trainings; more flexible, short-duration locally hosted trainings may be needed, along with efforts to bring mothers-in-law on board as supporters."

By thoughtfully articulating, validating and iterating on assumptions related to gender dynamics, you can develop a more robust Theory of Change that accounts for and mitigates potential risks. Assumptions are powerful...when you wield them skillfully!

Join the webinar on TOC on 23 May where we will have "hands on" and interactive sessions.

Due to the overwhelming demand I have added a few more spots...and then FULL is FULL so reserve yours now before it fills up completely AGAIN

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