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Write or Wrong? – D M Goldstein, July 2024

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There is an adage that you should, “write what you know.” That sounds like good advice. But what if “what you know” is wrong? What if the author is a walking example of Dunning-Kruger (ref 1)? Neil deGrasse Tyson allegedly said, “One of the great challenges in life is knowing enough to think you're right but not enough to know you're wrong.” (ref 2)

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One way might be to observe how others react to your writing. Do you get strong agreement, or do people challenge your assertions? A problem there is that agreement might be coming from an “echo chamber,” where like-minded people are your main audience, so they agree, but you may all be wrong. Or your perception of agreement is merely “confirmation bias.” Another indicator is whether, and how many, others benefited from your advice.

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Challenges might be coming from unenlightened people who are wrong - non-experts with much to say but little to support it. Copernicus had a more accurate model of the universe than his contemporaries, yet there was a strong movement to discredit Copernican doctrine. And then there is one of my favorite characters from Greek mythology, Cassandra. Apollo was trying to woo her and gave her the gift of foresight; when she did not return his affection he got upset and cursed her so that nobody would ever believe her true prophecies. There is always the possibility that you are wrong, and people think you are right, or you are right, and people think you are wrong.

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Broccoli and resumes

I do not like broccoli. Many people do like broccoli. Broccoli has many redeeming qualities, or so I am told. But I do not care for it, especially the smell; I think it smells horrible, whether raw, cooked, or spoiled. Maybe I’m right, and maybe I’m wrong, but for me my “truth” is what it is.

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I often respond to requests for advice from people in my network or on various forums or social media. One common topic is about resumes; I have been asked to review and comment on style and content, as well as appropriateness for specific job postings. I have also read many articles about resumes. As I have mentioned before (ref 3), there is a lot of conflicting information out there. While I give the best advice I can, I must wonder whether I’m telling them the equivalent of, “That broccoli doesn’t smell good.” Maybe that is just my opinion.

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Opinions vs. Facts

Sometimes facts are obvious and inarguable - "This is Maple Street.” That is objective, true, and can be corroborated. Some opinions are easily recognizable as such and are debatable - "It is cold out.” That is very subjective, situational, and a matter of personal perception. I live near the San Francisco Bay, and sometimes I see what I assume are tourists playing in the water on what I consider a cold day. But they may have come from a much colder location, or don’t mind a little chill because this is their trip to San Francisco. And what I consider “cold” in Summer I might also consider “warm” in Winter.

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When people on my forums ask for advice, the responses are all opinions posing as facts. “What is the best CRM system?” “What metrics should I use for this?” “What is an acceptable Customer Satisfaction number?” We all respond with answers based on our own experiences and value systems, but none of them are universally true facts. As with the resume advice, the reader must assimilate sometimes conflicting responses and must divine their own truth using available data. "Without data you're just another person with an opinion." (W. Edwards Deming)

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I started an earlier article quoting the phrase, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics,” attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and popularized by Mark Twain. Even with data, the interpretation may be incorrect, either by honest misinterpretation or by intentional misrepresentation. So how do you know, either as the author or reader, whether the interpretation is right or wrong? And remember that “correlation does not imply causation.” Just because two events happened near each other (in time or distance), that does not mean that one led to the other.

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The writer’s conundrum

When writing an article or responding to a request for an opinion, how can you and your audience be sure that you have any clue about the subject? You could look at the author’s length of experience on the topic. K. Anders Ericsson (ref 4) concluded that highly talented and successful people got there by practicing their craft for over 10,000 hours. Malcolm Gladwell used this rule in his book, “Outliers” (ref 5). But that is no guarantee. “Yes, he’s been a bricklayer for 30 years, but his work is sloppy and often falls over.” Incompetence plus time does not equal expertise. But knowledge plus extensive successful experience does, or at least should.

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The reader may have to rely on other input, such as whether other authors/respondents are giving similar advice. I covered that problem at the start of this article. It is like asking multiple people the same question until somebody gives you the answer you want, regardless of how many right or wrong answers you have already been given. If only life were as binary-rule-based as “the Two-Door Riddle” (ref 6), where you can tell truth from lies with a single well-considered question.

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AI. AI? No.

A lot of tools now offer Artificial Intelligence assistance. As a reader, can you tell whether something was generated by AI? As an author, can you trust AI as a factual source of information? I have been collecting articles about AI failures, including lawyers being sanctioned for using fake cases in a legal brief (ref 7), an airline being held liable for their AI chatbot giving incorrect information (ref 8), and Meta (ref 9) and Google (ref 10) just making stuff up. “Eat a rock a day.” I asked ChatGPT (ref 11) to “Write a paragraph about why I should not trust AI responses.” To their credit, they provide this disclaimer when you log in, “While we have safeguards, ChatGPT may give you inaccurate information. It’s not intended to give advice.”

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Here is the response. “Despite the advancements in AI technology, there are several reasons to exercise caution and not fully trust AI responses. First, AI systems can generate information based on outdated or incorrect data, leading to inaccurate or misleading content. Additionally, AI lacks true understanding and contextual awareness, sometimes producing responses that seem plausible but are factually incorrect or irrelevant. Moreover, AI models can inadvertently perpetuate biases present in their training data, which can skew their outputs in harmful ways. Lastly, AI lacks the human ability to empathize and understand nuanced emotional contexts, which can be crucial in sensitive or complex discussions. Therefore, while AI can be a helpful tool, it’s essential to verify its responses through reliable sources and human judgment.”

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What that is saying is that AI responses are no better or worse than doing your own web search or getting answers on a social media platform. The same happens when I ask “Alexa” a question; the answer often starts with her saying, “I found this on the web.” The results are possibly right or wrong and may be coming from unvetted sources. But I suspect that many people blindly trust the answer because it came from AI on the web. The reader must apply critical thinking, check trusted sources, and consider the history or bias of the person or source providing the information. You can read more about this in Consumer Reports (ref 12).

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1800 words of “thought leadership”

And yet, despite the possibility of doubt or inaccuracies, I continue to publish articles and respond to online questions. This is the 33rd monthly article I have written. Topics have varied but are usually triggered by a conversation or interaction I have had which sparked my creative side. Only once (so far) have I stated something as a “fact” and been quickly corrected by a friend; I immediately posted an update to that article with the correction. Yet I still try to share what I have learned over my life and career with others, and in return I try to learn from them as well.

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It is alright to have opinions, but you should acknowledge that they are just opinions and be open to updating them in the face of new facts. But when you’ve, “been there, done that, got the T-shirt,” it can be difficult to know how accurate your expertise really is. Could there be just a little Dunning-Kruger sneaking in? Or do you qualify as the expert? And is, “I firmly believe this to be true,” an adequate proxy for, “I know this to be true”?

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The creative process

This article was originally going to be about the writing process. How you get an idea for the high-level topic, identify key points you want to make, research it, draft it, edit it, and publish it. In college I learned how to write case studies: give the background, identify the key problem(s), suggest several solutions, analyze those solutions, and propose the best one with supporting observations. I still use that approach when appropriate. But writing, like life, sometimes ends up taking a different direction than the one you thought you started on. When I was just shy of 20 years old, I left computers to become a recording engineer. Two years later I stepped back into the Computer Center for what I naively thought was a short stop. Life is funny that way.

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I would like to take a moment to give kudos to those of you who write articles, blogs, and newsletters. You selflessly take time to come up with ideas, research them or solicit input, do the writing and editing, and then publish so the rest of us can enjoy and learn from your efforts.

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Universal Disclaimer

Based on all this, with “tongue in cheek,” I hereby officially attach the following disclaimer proactively and reactively to anything I have ever written or ever will write. “All content is the opinion of the author based on his knowledge, observations, and experience. There is no guarantee of accuracy or applicability to the reader’s world.”

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And you can believe every bit of that. Trust me, I’m an expert.

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References

1.????? Dunning–Kruger effect - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

2.????? Neil deGrasse Tyson - https://www.yourdictionary.com/articles/neil-degrasse-tyson-quotes

3.????? Open to Work - https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/open-work-miles-goldstein-psmoc

4.????? K. Anders Ericsson - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._Anders_Ericsson

5.????? Malcolm Gladwell, “Outliers” - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_(book)

6.????? Two-Door Riddle - https://nerdist.com/article/how-to-beat-the-labyrinth-two-door-riddle/

7.????? NY Lawyers Sanctioned - https://www.reuters.com/legal/new-york-lawyers-sanctioned-using-fake-chatgpt-cases-legal-brief-2023-06-22/

8.????? Air Canada chatbot - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aircanada-chatbot-discount-customer/