The worst month for global stocks in a year.

TPP Review Of The Week:

The UK economy recovered faster from the pandemic than previously thought.

The economy was 2% bigger by the end of June compared with past estimates, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. That means the country has recovered all the output lost in the early phase of the pandemic, with?gross domestic product?1.8% above pre-Covid levels.

The upward revision — the second announced by ONS this month — means Britain’s recovery no longer ranks worst among the?Group of Seven?nations, with growth since the end of 2019 exceeding that of Germany and France and trailing closely behind Italy.

“Data out on Friday once again proves the doubters wrong,” Hunt said in a statement. “The best way to continue this growth is to stick to our plan to halve inflation this year, with the IMF forecasting that we will grow more than Germany, France, and Italy in the longer term.”

UK growth for last year as a whole was also revised up to 4.3% from 4.1%. The bulk of the overall improvement was driven by upward revisions in 2021, as the UK bounced back from the deep Covid recession. Growth was 8.7% in 2021, up from an earlier estimate of 7.6%.

This good news failed to lift the FTSE thought last week. The UK’s main benchmark was down just under 1%.

The main data out of the US last week was the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy, and it rose 0.1% in August, less than economists were expecting. Investors are looking for signs that pricing pressures are moderating and the central bank can eventually pivot from its high-rate regime.

“Inflation is continuing to decelerate, meaning the Fed’s aggressive campaign is working,” said?Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. “The challenge is that core PCE remains almost double the Fed’s 2% target, prompting the Fed to keep the possibility of another rate hike in play.”

High rates around the globe have kept a lid on stocks of late. The July-September quarter has been the worst for MSCI’s all-country?index?since September 2022, as surging oil prices fanned fears over inflation and economic growth.

Despite the positive inflation data, markets finished down on Friday?closing out the worst month for global stocks in a year.

Higher oil prices contributed to concerns that inflation could prove more difficult for central banks to tame, spurring a sell-off in bonds. As the week wore on, the increasing likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown may also have weighed on investor sentiment.

The S&P 500 Index suffered a fourth consecutive weekly pullback.

Within the index, utilities lost the most ground. Energy stocks, on the other hand, outperformed. The S&P MidCap 400 Index and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, which have lagged large-caps meaningfully this year, eked out gains.

In Europe, inflation data also came in better than expected. Germany’s was 0.3% month over month and France posted negative -0.5%. Despite this, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.67% lower amid concerns about a prolonged period of higher interest rates and a weak Chinese economy.

France’s CAC 40 Index slid 0.69%, Germany’s DAX declined 1.10%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 1.16%. The UK’s FTSE 100 Index lost 0.99%.

European government bond yields broadly climbed as investors focused on the higher-for-longer rates narrative in financial markets. Germany’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to nearly 3%—a level unseen in more than a decade—before backing off this high on Friday.?

Japan’s stock markets fell, with the Nikkei down 1.7% and the broader TOPIX Index declining 2.2%. Concerns about U.S. interest rates potentially remaining higher for longer and the soaring price of oil weighed on sentiment. However, investors welcomed the Japanese government’s announcement of a new economic stimulus plan. Meanwhile, slowing core inflation in the Tokyo area lent support to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) staunch commitment to its ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance in pursuit of its inflation target.

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Chinese stocks fell in a holiday-shortened week as a lack of positive news on the economy dampened investor sentiment. The blue-chip CSI 300 Index and Shanghai Composite Index both fell for the week ending Thursday. Stock markets in mainland China were closed Friday, the start of a 10-day holiday for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and will reopen Monday, October 9. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 1.37% for the week.

No official economic indicators in China were released during the week. But a private survey showed that prices in China are recovering, assuaging fears of a prolonged deflation. World Economics reported that its all-sector price index for China rose to a 14-month high in September. “This suggests fears of Chinese price deflation ushering in a Japanese-style period of very low or negative growth have been overblown,” said the London-based data company, which created the widely used Purchasing Managers’ Indexes now owned by S&P Global. “The signs of a resumption of growth in [China] over recent decades are looking a little more positive.”

What to expect this week:

This week a?government shutdown?could be imminent unless congressional leaders agree to a series of last-minute spending bills to keep the government running past Sept. 30.

We’ll get the latest reports on the jobs market next week, including the August?Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, ADP’s?National Employment Report?tracking private sector payrolls, and the?nonfarm payrolls?report for September.

In the UK we will see an update on the housing market. Nationwide updates prices on Monday and Halifax will do the same on Friday. It’s a gloomy market at the moment, but this is to be expected.

Money has been too cheap for the last 15 years and the world has borrowed too much on the back of it. There needs to be a correction, a reset, then demand will return. This is just the nature of markets.

Closing Comments:

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