The World in Y2021

Vaccination-drive as a Stimulus package

I have pondered and raised these few points in my post dated 13th December 2020:

i) Remember, vaccines do not save lives, Vaccination saves lives.

ii) Vaccine is effective if the known and potential benefits outweigh its known and potential risks.

iii) Whether the vaccine prevents infection or simply prevents symptoms of infection

Do understand at the outset that developing the infection and being infected by the virus are two different aspects of the disease. It is important in case of Coronavirus, as the clinical trials are still in progress.

Vaccine development cycle:

Normally tests start on cells, then it proceeds to animals ...if the preclinical tests are promising, it will proceed to clinical trials where it gets started with small numbers of healthy individuals and then the sample size keeps increasing, divided into phases... these are the normal steps as per my knowledge.

At each stage, subjects are observed for reactions, side-effects, any adverse events over a sustained period of time. This whole process generally lasts over a period of 5 years.

We have crossed phase 3 of trials and that too as close as in Abu Dhabi. Efficacy of vaccine is usually tested by tracking the development of disease symptoms in a person exposed to Covid-19 virus over an extended period of time.

So, when it is claimed that vaccine do not guarantee 100 percent protection, what it means is that it is at present efficacious enough to prevent manifestation in moderate and severe form. But a person can still carry Covid-19 in his/her nasal cavity and keep spreading it.

Vaccine work by mimicking the first infection. The body can generate a sufficient response of antibodies when attacked by the actual virus. Usually, the body responds to infection by producing antibodies. When a person is attacked by the same virus again, the body remembers it and produces more antibodies faster, in a bid to destroy it.

Remember, it has not been established yet that vaccine will produce the same immune response in different individuals.

Questions:

Q1. How quickly the body can mobilize the antibodies to reduce or negate the effect when attacked by coronavirus as life moves along after the vaccination?

Q2. How long will the immunity last after vaccination?

Q3. Whether immunization (vaccination)  is one-time process or will be required on an annual basis? Remember, Yellow-fever and Tetanus vaccines need to be administered after every 10 years, if required. This has been established after prolonged testing spread over ‘n’ number of years.

Pandemic and ensuing lock-downs, halting of economic activities in many sectors and slowing down generally over these last 12 months at a stretch, have made the human race courageous and not at all risk-averse.

Taking note of Vaccine development cycle and our journey with COVID-19 so far and my own personal experience, reminds me of few relevant lines from a Hindi movie song [Movie: Gumraah (Y1963); Singer: Mahendra Kapoor; Cast: Ashok Kumar, Sunil Dutt and Mala Sinha]

“?? ??????? ???? ????? ?? ???? ?? ?? ??????, ??? ?? ??????? ???? ???? ?????? ?????! [Woh afsaana jise anjaam tak laana na ho mumkin, use ek khoobsoorat mod dekar chodna achha]. Translated into English language, it means, any heart-felt wish if not possible to draw to a conclusion, its better to leave it at an appropriate point.

As we wrap-up an unprecedented Y2020, how can we prepare our business for success in Y2021? We need to analyze rapidly-emerging trends, form an opinion collectively yet individually, as to what will the New Year bring in for the world of global business. Let us together prepare for success in Y2021. 

Let’s move full on with Vaccination, gradually in order, and keep ‘freeing’ ourselves in months to come. We have become wiser now, let’s get engaged again in creating wealth for the good of ALL !

------------------