World wheat production could reach record levels, above 800 MT

In early September (3/9), the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its new agricultural production report and confirmed our expectation of good wheat production for the country.?

We are currently estimating production of 32.5 MT for Australia, while ABARES is estimating 31.8 MT (up until August it was at 29.1 MT).?

However, in addition to Australia, we are also optimistic about world wheat production, despite the issues with the winter wheat in important countries such as France, Russia and others. which could reach the 800 MT mark for the first time in history.?

Our current estimate is at 800.97 MT (the first time in history that production will be above 800 MT, if our estimate is accurate). The USDA is estimating 798.3 MT. The USDA will release its new estimate next Thursday (12/9).?

?

1. History and estimate of world wheat production.?

Source: USDA / Compiled by EarthDaily Agro?

2024* - Estimate made by EarthDaily Agro (estimate is updated weekly).?

?

So far, 2023 has seen the largest global wheat production in history, with 789.67 MT. Therefore, even if our production estimate is not confirmed, global production is likely to be a record, given how far along we are in the wheat cycle for the world's largest producers.?

The volume of production impacts commodity prices, however, final stocks and demand also play an important role in price formation.?

Regarding stocks, even with the largest production in history, final reserves should continue to be the lowest in the last 9 years, a factor that influences price formation.?

?

2. History and estimate of world wheat stocks.?

Source: USDA / Compiled by EarthDaily Agro?

* For 2024, we are considering the production estimate made by EarthDaily Agro.?

And, just as it is unlikely that we will not have a record production, it is also very unlikely that we will not have a final stock lower than the average of the last 5 years (277.63 MT).?

Finally, with the harvest cycle already beginning in Canada and good weather conditions in Australia, on the supply side we will hardly have a significant change, considering that production in Argentina and Brazil is relatively smaller.?

Therefore, attention to the next season (winter wheat in the northern hemisphere) and demand will be increasingly important.?

EarthDaily Agro updates its yield estimates weekly and sends them to its customers so they can stay ahead of the market. We provide yield estimates not only for wheat but also for several other crops.

If you would like to be aware of the most important changes in crop production, please contact us.